Yorkshire and E England regional discussion

[The PIT]

Something on Interest possibly Saturday with a risk of Snow across parts of the region. GFS first toyed with this idea beginning of last week but with the low further the south east and us on the north eastern side. Away from the highest ground any snow likely to be transient. The cold snap a short affair as milder soon returns the next week. So it maybe a case of making the most of it if it turns up as shown.

[The PIT]

Today has shifted everything east and has us under -7 uppers so that increases any snow chances. However we don't want to many shift eastward at the moment I would say it's about ideal.

[The PIT]

A reduced window of snow tonight's run with a shift westward however if we don't get snow some of us may get blown away with strong winds now on the forecast early Saturday morning. So everything still up in the air.

[The PIT]

Disappointing run toward with the precipitation moving through before the cold air arrives. The wind looks the major player now.

[The PIT]

Ho hum tonight's run back in the firing line. Could well be a significant event although local forecast is having none of it. Again it could change again tomorrow so far it's wet and not windy wet rian to snow and windy and then back to rain passing through quickly and not windy and now back to a blast of early winter. So I would say 50/50 at this stage. Tomorrows forecast is the important one I think.

[Wold Topper]

Currently 4.5c under a clear night sky (feels a tad colder) extra log or two on the log burner this evening!

[Gray-Wolf]

So West Yorks, are we lamp post watching on Friday night?

I expect the tops to be white when I wake up on Saturday!

[A Face like Thunder]

Amber warning for wind now in force for Friday night and early Saturday morning covering the N E and Yorkshire & Humberside. I wish my friends on the moors and coast all the best for a safe, if not restful night! 

[The PIT]

Back to rain for us and then drying up before the cold air arrives. Latest GFS has shifted everything east again and downgraded the winds a bit so looks like my walk in the peak district is back on.

Edited November 25, 2021 by The PIT

[Jeremy Shockey]

ARPEGE 12z

Interesting for our region on Fri night perhaps !!!

[winterof79]

4 hours ago, The PIT said:

Back to rain for us and then drying up before the cold air arrives. Latest GFS has shifted everything east again and downgraded the winds a bit so looks like my walk in the peak district is back on.

Or not......

The Pit....falls of trusting every run  

Edited November 25, 2021 by winterof79

[The PIT]

So morning runs further east evening runs further west unfortunately the details varying enough to be a forecasters nightmare. Could well be a case of now casting on the day and checking the radar. It's changing enough to make the presenters unsure as well. Funnily enough the forecasts for Sunday and Monday stay much the same. Since it's been named it's probably will turn out to be a damp squib. Normally the weather outside the named storms bring more livier weather. Bit like Carol Kirkwood saying humdingers in regards to Thunderstorms. Sooon as those words are muttered it's either dry sunny and settled or overcast and cool.

[Adam lufc]

Wow quiet on here when the gfs n ecm are showing snow potential! Its the closest we will prob get all winter. So lets keep fingers crossed. Got the weather station bought and ready- £1785. Comon snow!

[Adam lufc]

Also just to add- here in north leeds we had 2 or 3 snow events last season with inches of snow that was not forecast by the met office nor was there a weather warning out either. I remember calling the met office making a complaint about how poor their forecast was in those episodes. 

[Adam lufc]

Yes it was localised at times but i am sure other members on here remember then well right? Only difference was that it was more conducive to snow on those occasions. However we may end up with a damp blustery squib so we shall see. Slightly excited but not over-whelmingly atm! Lets hope this upgrades for US tomorrow, as tomorrow night is when the action takes place!

[summer blizzard]

All pretty marginal but the Met Office has now switched to sleet. 

High Res models still don't much like it but the low Res runs have gone bananas for it.

[Tim A]

1 hour ago, Adam lufc said:

Yes it was localised at times but i am sure other members on here remember then well right? Only difference was that it was more conducive to snow on those occasions. However we may end up with a damp blustery squib so we shall see. Slightly excited but not over-whelmingly atm! Lets hope this upgrades for US tomorrow, as tomorrow night is when the action takes place!

There were indeed. Three falls of 12cm plus here.

Best one was Jan 8th as there ended up being over 5 inches of snow when little was predicted.  Snowed all day and piled up during daylight hours, quite rare. Harrogate and North Leeds got plastered. Cars abandoned, north of the Ring Road was impassible, people couldn't get home from work,  but there was no snow in Armley, Kirkstall etc , elevation and being that slightly bit further north was the key. It hung around unmelted the next day too, still in the trees etc.

Then less than a week later on the 14th, we had even more , more than 6 inches , rain turned to snow before Dawn and lasted all day again piling up all day.  We were in a sweet spot again as it was sleet in York and rain west of Pennines. Again the day after was a stunning day with no melt.  That one was better forecast but we still got more than expected.

Those two events were really special.

[Adam lufc]

3 minutes ago, Tim A said:

There were indeed. Three falls of 12cm plus here.

Best one was Jan 8th as there ended up being over 5 inches of snow when little was predicted.  Snowed all day and piled up during daylight hours, quite rare. Harrogate and North Leeds got plastered. Cars abandoned, north of the Ring Road was impassible, people couldn't get home from work,  but there was no snow in Armley, Kirkstall etc , elevation and being that slightly bit further north was the key. It hung around unmelted the next day too, still in the trees etc.

Then less than a week later on the 14th, we had even more , more than 6 inches , rain turned to snow before Dawn and lasted all day again piling up all day.  We were in a sweet spot again as it was sleet in York and rain west of Pennines. Again the day after was a stunning day with no melt.  That one was better forecast but we still got more than expected.

Those two events were really special.

They really were incredible and special werent they! Good job we made the most of them!

I cant quite remember the atmospheric conditions prior to though compared to tomorrow. I think the first was precip running into cold stagnant air as we had a strong air frost prior.but again no advisories on met office!

[Wold Topper]

Normally any mention of snow and my ears pr1ck up, but tomorrow night the potential predicted wind speed/gusts is of a greater concern tbh, could be a bumpy ride,

Edited November 25, 2021 by Wold Topper

[winterof79]

Courtesy of Kasim on nw thread.

I PM'd him yesterday.

"Hi guys, been very busy so not had time to post, looks v good for highland Pennines, many outlets are foolishly underplaying it imo. West of Pennines snow shadow - moderate sleet below 100m > snow above 250m giving a dusting. Over and to the east of Pennines is widely v good, 5-12cm imo cant see 30cm of level snow not possible in 30mph sustained wind.. Snow gradient will end at around 75m asl east yorkshire as the warm inversion fades in. Few cms on moderate ground sheffield bradford leeds, as the inversion is eradicated here. Very limited evapo cooling. Stalls possible in the North Pennines and southern peaks. Both stalls will result in severe drifting snow at elevation."

[Allseasons-Si]

Wet snow and graupel here just now,nice to see some wintriness fall out of the sky

good luck tonight and into tomorrow morning guys

[Wold Topper]

What's peoples thoughts for South of the red warning area? I.e costal side of the Yorkshire Moors/Wolds,

[mike57]

7 minutes ago, Wold Topper said:

What's peoples thoughts for South of the red warning area? I.e costal side of the Yorkshire Moors/Wolds,

I think the exact track of the low is going to make a lot of difference on the southern edge. Predicted winds decrease quickly as you move south, we are right on the edge, depending where you look there will be 60mph gusts, pretty normal every winter, or 80mph which is damaging. Further up the coast is in for a battering which ever model/forecast you consult.

Edited November 26, 2021 by mike57

[cowdog]

Snow warning issued for the Higher / Northern parts of the Pennines.

Quote

An area of rain and hill snow will move southwards over southern Scotland and northern England during Friday night. Much of this will clear to the south early on Saturday but some sleet and snow showers will follow. Snow is expected mainly above 300 to 400 m, particularly over the Pennines where 10-15 cm of snow may fall in some places. At lower levels mostly rain is expected but there is a chance of some falling snow - mainly as the system clears south. With very strong winds expected as well some very difficult travel conditions are likely with blizzards leading to reduced visibility and the potential for some drifting of snow.

 

[Wold Topper]

On 26/11/2021 at 12:01, mike57 said:

I think the exact track of the low is going to make a lot of difference on the southern edge. Predicted winds decrease quickly as you move south, we are right on the edge, depending where you look there will be 60mph gusts, pretty normal every winter, or 80mph which is damaging. Further up the coast is in for a battering which ever model/forecast you consult.

Thanks Mike, something to keep an eye on indeed, yeah, up the coast could be quite brutal, i shall be watching how things develop in the regional threads,