Model output discussion - Into 2021

[Guest]

7 minutes ago, Sweatyman said:

Yes but you know it might not dont you!? PS Had a lovely hour of heavy snow here

Not only do you live in the chocolate capital of the world, but you got snow as well, some folk are just born lucky!

[snowice]

1 minute ago, Snowmut said:

Not only do you live in the chocolate capital of the world, but you got snow as well, some folk are just born lucky!

It was just a flake!

[damianslaw]

29 minutes ago, Bricriu said:

 

Keeping to the reliable, a continuation of the cold theme, northerly feed about to become an easterly one. Further wintry showers and frost with temps staying below normal for early January. The northerlies then return, as heights ridge out to the mid atlantic. Models all show low pressure feature anchoring through the UK towards middle-latter part of the new week, so further chance of snow.

Divergence then occurs between the models, ECM moving the atlantic in, GFS delays it until a bit later. I'm not seeing any major atlantic incursion and this could easily be a shortlived temporary affair before the cards are shuffled to a longer term sustained pattern post SSW effects.

[SMU]

Good Eve

FWIW I believe the 120 18z has the spot on solution ( which is rare ) it shows a realistic balance & equilibrium of energy moving south over the UK whilst an Easterly develops over the low countries...

[lorenzo]

The wave guide for the strat filaments has been well advertised - still a lot to resolve here

Do we get the streamer filament at day 4/5, does it wrap as per second frame...

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

We need higher latitude blocks and easterlies originating from colder regions not South East Europe. Otherwise we’ll be heading no where!

[Tim Bland]

That’s more like it ️

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Thurs night a little chilly!

[sheikhy]

Liking the 18z so far!!!better than ecm!!

[Harsh Climate]

I think we need the low over southern England to absorb that low coming down from North of Scotland.. Also WAA trying to push up western side of Greenland looks good.

Edited January 2, 2021 by Harsh Climate

[lorenzo]

Wave guide example at 162 here it comes again...

[sheikhy]

850s same for monday to wednesday?

[chionomaniac]

I call this a three pronged attack!

[Battleground Snow]

Para a little different, but it's still better than ECM and ukmo

126

[Griff]

126 GFS vs P

[Weathizard]

Slider? Little bit too rounded still but time for change, it definitely seems the last 12 hours have seen a trend for this low moving further and further south. I think the upgrades are going to continue in the next few runs as well

 

sandwiched by cold air from all directions, Beast from the west?  

[Allseasons-Si]

There is certainly a colder pool developing over the low countries and from the NW,the UK is sandwiched...

a lot better run this and not often you get a battleground from the north conflicting with the south and could = snow good snowfall.

 

[Captain Shortwave]

Fair to say most would take the GFS here. A frontal snow event at day 5 for most of the Country, followed by scattered showers and a severe frost, before we repeat the process again with another system descending from the north/north west.

Having the Atlantic ridge in place means that any unsettled weather from the Atlantic will carry a much colder airmass (Due to having to run through Greenland/Iceland to get to us) and with enough steering thanks to heights further east then you could easily see a lot of snow as any milder air is mixed out.

 

Edited January 2, 2021 by Captain Shortwave

[Snowman.]

Defo more slidery than barrel this..

[chionomaniac]

This to me is a boom chart due to the lack of mild intrusion

Jj

what could possibly go wrong...

[markw2680]

Now that is something we would take I’m sure

[Stu_London]

In terms of the reliable timeframe - this is a proper carlsberg run

[Allseasons-Si]

Plastered...

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

 

this is heading to boom....what a run...we want this one folks...NNW/SSE with very cold air an minimal mixing out...and easterly to follow

 

BFTP

[Tim Bland]

Double digit snow depths centre of the Uk by next weekend. A bit different to the 12z so hard to have any faith but nice to see there’s still a chance ! 12z Vs 18z below...