Scotland/Alba weather discussion - Jan 2021 onwards

[Bullseye]

24 minutes ago, Stormeh said:

I do like the look of the BBC forecast 

 

Big upgrade from the Met office forecast for here. Earlier it was showing mostly dry with the odd snowflake.

It’s all to play for, I think some of us are in for a nice surprise over the next few days

And then to counter that no mention from Sean Batty of snow for Wednesday/Thursday. Couldn't make it up

[asjmcguire]

3 hours ago, 101_North said:

I'm tempted to stay away from charts and forecasts and just see what happens

Is there a Charts/Models Anonymous Support Group? You know for when you know you shouldn't look, but just can't help it?

[metallikat34]

3 hours ago, Polar Side said:

I’m not greedy, I’d settle for 59cm as long as it’s powdery and dry.

Sitting at 95 m ASL and I'd just take a solid coating at this point!

[metallikat34]

2 hours ago, 101_North said:

Warnings out for Wed into Thursday for Southern Scotland and Central Belt. Sadly the Met going for a high ground only event. Up to 30cm over 400m+, 10-15cm over 200m but only a few cm's of wet stuff around 100m. Rain elsewhere. 

Given that assessment I'm expecting the usual sleety mess here. It's a frontal, rain meets colder air scenario, and we almost never do well out of those!

Other side of the Pentlands, Penicuik etc and Southern Uplands could do very well though!

Appreciate your assessment! And I totally recognize that I am the new guy (2 years now) here in the Edinburgh area. But I am not so sure I'd fully characterize this as a purely frontal event. Some really decent dynamics in place once that storm center hits the water early on Thursday morning. Could see a good 3-6 hour thumping of snow and the overnight timing helps with temperatures and precip type.

[aggy]

I know I said I wouldn’t look at charts but I can’t help myself . The dew points have increased for Cumbernauld which is really disappointing and the forecasted temps have risen slightly also 

[Northernlights]

Interesting weather today  Started off at -1c this morning with mostly clear skies.A veil  of high cloud has moved in very slowly on the southern horizon so with clear skies overhead and to the north its still 0c .   The frost has not lifted but appears to be digging in a bit. A few snow showers on the distant northern horizon.

[metallikat34]

1 hour ago, Penicuikblizzard said:

Paul Blight clearly doesn’t know how the Edinburgh snow  shield operates

Lol. This would be the correct assessment from a purely dynamics standpoint. However, that dew point depression always drys our the air columns as well. Wrap around precipitation with deepening lows is always overdone in models, and often underperforms in reality. Essentially like a mini dry slot. 

[metallikat34]

2 hours ago, BurntFishTrousers said:

Is this technical discussion from the met office?

 

[Puffy MacCloud]

They're saying in the MAD thread that there's no point in looking at the models closer than 192 hours out because the pattern in that timeframe is blocked. Well, the models might be blocked but, as anyone who ever tried to plan a bar-b-que in Scotland knows, the weather certainly isn't blocked. The way this coming storm is forecast to pivot I could even be peering southwestwards for the first signs of deluge and find that Christoph has taken me from behind, which wouldn't do at all. Not at all.

[Polar Side]

9 minutes ago, metallikat34 said:

Appreciate your assessment! And I totally recognize that I am the new guy (2 years now) here in the Edinburgh area. But I am not so sure I'd fully characterize this as a purely frontal event. Some really decent dynamics in place once that storm center hits the water early on Thursday morning. Could see a good 3-6 hour thumping of snow and the overnight timing helps with temperatures and precip type.

Hopefully you’ll get to experience Edinburgh in an East Northeasterly with -10 uppers  before winter is finished with us.

[metallikat34]

1 minute ago, Puffy MacCloud said:

They're saying in the MAD thread that there's no point in looking at the models closer than 192 hours out because the pattern in that timeframe is blocked. Well, the models might be blocked but, as anyone who ever tried to plan a bar-b-que in Scotland knows, the weather certainly isn't blocked. The way this coming storm is forecast to pivot I could even be peering southwestwards for the first signs of deluge and find that Christoph has taken me from behind, which wouldn't do at all. Not at all.

Whats the MAD thread?

[Puffy MacCloud]

A corruption of the MOD thread, which is a shortening of the model discussion thread, which, in itself, is a corruption.

(possibly Model Output Discussion thread)

Edited January 19, 2021 by Puffy MacCloud
further information

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

6 minutes ago, metallikat34 said:

Whats the MAD thread?

It’s the model output thread it’s often best to be equipped in riot gear before venturing in there 

[metallikat34]

1 minute ago, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

It’s the model output thread it’s often best to be equipped in riot gear before venturing in there 

Lol. I am ready! I am over caffeinated and procrastinating at "work". 

[Puffy MacCloud]

I got there just before you KW. I usually do. She's always complaining about it.

[blitzen]

20 minutes ago, metallikat34 said:

Whats the MAD thread?

Model Absurdity Discussion thread!   A substitute for the Model Output Discussion thread!

Edited January 19, 2021 by Blitzen

[NUT]

So some weather going to happen then?  Rain's not far away well I say rain it's a see how long it takes before it possibly turns.....................

[Puffy MacCloud]

Just now, Blitzen said:

Model Absurdity Discussion thread!   Substituted for the Model Output Discussion thread!

Oooooo! Hark at her.

[blitzen]

Just now, Puffy MacCloud said:

Oooooo! Hark at her.

I've opened my Absolute!!

[Puffy MacCloud]

1 minute ago, Blitzen said:

I've opened my Absolute!!

Well as the sun barely gets over the horizon it's never going to get over the yardarm, so we'll call a slight mis-timing rather than wild abandon.

[blitzen]

1 minute ago, Puffy MacCloud said:

Well as the sun barely gets over the horizon it's never going to get over the yardarm, so we'll call a slight mis-timing rather than wild abandon.

Disappointing!!

[Eastern Scotland WX]

Can i give you guys a little tips when forecasting temperatures in the short term. Best thing to do is check what models are closest to the current time frame then use those temperatures to give you a better idea on what to expect during the precipitation. 

[snowy owl]

27 minutes ago, Blitzen said:

I've opened my Absolute!!

Can I join you ! Between model tantrums and homeschooling tantrums I’m in need of something stronger than tea lol! 
 

I like the probability of the snow but only on the probability of at least seeing some lying snow otherwise I fear It may be the last straw this week lol  

[Eastern Scotland WX]

Latest ICON is a nice solution for all in Scotland. Rain stays over St Andrews.

[101_North]

7 minutes ago, snowy owl said:

 homeschooling tantrums

You too 

All hell has broken loose here today