Scotland/Alba weather discussion - Jan 2021 onwards

[Eagle Eye]

Blizzard conditions can't wait to see the photos. 

[mistyqueen]

Morning all! A hefty wee shower just passing over just now. Rain, off course! As for the arrival of any white stuff this week, we are mostly forecast to have sleet/rain in this neck of the woods, so I won't be disappointed! Thursday looking like a complete wash out up here, so I will therefore tackle all those wee indoor jobs that I've promised to do for weeks. Maybe. Or I might just spend the day with books, Or wine. Or both!

[mardatha]

Dreich and horrible here, above freezing. Bleugh.

[Stormeh]

3 hours ago, Mr Frost said:

I am just going to do a bit of radar/lamppost watching tonight and see what happens! Look forward to reading what you think could happen. Very tricky forecast.

This is the best way to go about it. I remember a couple of weeks ago it was supposed to be dry here then I had a look at the radar and their was a big blob of precipitation just north of Glasgow then boom a nice covering of snow overnight. It was the same last Thursday when the rain turned to snow overnight. There was also no warnings from the met office until the snow was actually falling from the sky. Anything is possible which is why I love these kind of events. I won’t be disappointed if I miss out as I have already had two good snow events since the beginning of the month. 
 

Good luck everyone, I hope this thread is filled with snowy scenes soon

 

[101_North]

I think it's safe to assume my location won't be getting the 61.2cm of snow on XC Weather / GFS but what will we get? I'm tempted to stay away from charts and forecasts and just see what happens

[Polar Side]

13 minutes ago, 101_North said:

I think it's safe to assume my location won't be getting the 61.2cm of snow on XC Weather / GFS but what will we get? I'm tempted to stay away from charts and forecasts and just see what happens

I’m not greedy, I’d settle for 59cm as long as it’s powdery and dry.

[Hawesy]

15 minutes ago, 101_North said:

I think it's safe to assume my location won't be getting the 61.2cm of snow on XC Weather / GFS but what will we get? I'm tempted to stay away from charts and forecasts and just see what happens

 Anything less than two feet will be a let down then. 
Meanwhile my own XC forecast seems somewhat more plausible! 

[JoeShmoe]

28 minutes ago, 101_North said:

I think it's safe to assume my location won't be getting the 61.2cm of snow on XC Weather / GFS but what will we get? I'm tempted to stay away from charts and forecasts and just see what happens

I'll settle for the 1.2cm while you greeedy bar stewards up the A70 take the other 60 

[Polar Side]

We need to get the 101 resort open for the weekend sledging!

[Ravelin]

14 minutes ago, Hawesy said:

 Anything less than two feet will be a let down then. 
Meanwhile my own XC forecast seems somewhat more plausible! 

I'm not talking to my XC forecast this morning. Earlier it was still snow, but 'only' around 40cm, but now it's all rain, lots of it!

Currently its a semi-sunny start to the day here with the temp at 0.6C after an overnight low of -2.5C (so a decent frost).

[Penicuikblizzard]

Yellow warning now for Weds/Thurs for the Central belt 

[101_North]

Warnings out for Wed into Thursday for Southern Scotland and Central Belt. Sadly the Met going for a high ground only event. Up to 30cm over 400m+, 10-15cm over 200m but only a few cm's of wet stuff around 100m. Rain elsewhere. 

Given that assessment I'm expecting the usual sleety mess here. It's a frontal, rain meets colder air scenario, and we almost never do well out of those!

Other side of the Pentlands, Penicuik etc and Southern Uplands could do very well though!

Edited January 19, 2021 by 101_North

[blitzen]

Morning.   1.6c/1.3c/995.6/S/calm/boring. 

Not a lot else to say this morning folks with a rinse and repeat type day here.  

I am not going to let myself fall into this situation again ever:

 

 

Been on here now 16+ years and it honestly feels as if, as far as computer model predictions are concerned, things haven't improved a whole lot.   Why is that I wonder?   Chaos theory?

Anyhoo, I do hope that things work out for everyone and you all get the joy you deserve!

I can assure you all that I shall be enshrined with my protection to help combat any disappointment!  Here is my salvation (in a tall,  ice cold glass!)

Geronimo..........

 

 

Edited January 19, 2021 by Blitzen

[BurntFishTrousers]

[101_North]

11 minutes ago, BurntFishTrousers said:

Sounds much better for round these parts but somewhat at odds with the warnings just issued. Still plenty of time for things to change. Interesting to see which forecasts come out on top once all this plays out. 

Edited January 19, 2021 by 101_North

[JoeShmoe]

11 minutes ago, BurntFishTrousers said:

Paul Blight has been quite consistent that the cold air coming down the western side of the low will reduce the wet bulb freezing temp down significantly enough to turn the rain to snow across a pretty wide area but the met office aren't having it ... guess we will see but experience tells me if its marginal here its no good .. 

[LomondSnowstorm]

I'll look at the temperature profile in more detail now that we seem to have at least some degree of consensus that there'll be a fair whack of precipitation for most of us. Still a lot of details to work out, for example the ICON has the main risk to the north of the central belt as far as settling snow goes, but I do think we can have some confidence that somewhere is going to end up hitting the jackpot tomorrow...

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

^^ would be amazing if that forecast becomes true but having just looked at the latest wrf nmm runs they are a big mess that’s the best way to describe them they develop the low too near to the east coast which pushes the 528 dam even further west and also that front later today now being shown to reach Fife I might have preferred that staying across the borders allowing cooler temps to its north, you can see that the low developing on the east coast/ in Scotland is no good as it won’t allow the 528 dam to progress across to the east coast, better if it develops in the North Sea  

[bomdabass]

Drumochter at the moment

[Eastern Scotland WX]

I’m anxious to see what the 12z runs show...

[Penicuikblizzard]

1 hour ago, JoeShmoe said:

Paul Blight has been quite consistent that the cold air coming down the western side of the low will reduce the wet bulb freezing temp down significantly enough to turn the rain to snow across a pretty wide area but the met office aren't having it ... guess we will see but experience tells me if its marginal here its no good .. 

Paul Blight clearly doesn’t know how the Edinburgh snow  shield operates

[edo]

In my 10 years living here this has never happened... The football pitch has inches of ice and impromptu frozen ponds all over it.... No temp to report by my hand is freezing typing as I walk... I was a bit more hopeful here till I read LS post and I like 101s idea.... No model Wednesday and look out the window

Very cold here despite the cloud cover. 

[Stormeh]

I do like the look of the BBC forecast 

 

Big upgrade from the Met office forecast for here. Earlier it was showing mostly dry with the odd snowflake.

It’s all to play for, I think some of us are in for a nice surprise over the next few days

[Puffy MacCloud]

Dreich here. Dreichie McDreich. And dull. And drizzle. A complete contrast, apparently, to the forecasts from the BBC and Met Office, which show a mixture of rain, sleet and snow from now to Saturday. Or Sunday. Not the same mix obviously, because they're models and they choose different directions from each other with every step. Honestly, it's like herding cats. The only thing for sure is that they'll both be wrong and what will be, will be.

Temperature 3.8deg.C up from 2.2deg.C at 09:00, humidity 95%, wind 0 to 3mph (max) southeasterly, pressure 995.4hPa dropping like a stone, 0.8mm of rain today, cloud cover 8/8 and the dew point is at 3deg.C.

Oh, and Diablo he say drizzle, which is exactly what we've got. Who'd have thunk it.

[Glaswegianblizzard]

Just wanted to say thanks to those with the knowledge and expertise coming on and giving us their analysis and thoughts. Fascinating to read your posts and looking forward to seeing what’s delivered over the next 48 hours. 
 

The iphone weather app ‘model’ is saying decent chance of snow in Glasgow from around 22:00, but definitely rain until then.