Scotland/Alba weather discussion - Jan 2021 onwards

[TinyTim]

5 minutes ago, 101_North said:

Not changed this naysayers mood much 

To be honest 101, the same here However, you've had a lot more than I've had so far, so fair is fair

[edo]

35 minutes ago, asjmcguire said:

The GEFS for here is certainly trending low for the air pressure, but the T850 is trending up towards 0 and doesn't come back down to -5 until Friday now. 

 

Be gone with you naysayer with your facts and evidence... No place for that here 

 

I'm with BFT 

 

Epic event for many

[shuggee]

The meto warnings website seems to be malfunctioning at this time. Thanks Storm Christoph - just when there's some wild speculation to engage in.

 

13 minutes ago, edo said:

Be gone with you naysayer with your facts and evidence... No place for that here 

I'm with BFT 

Epic event for many

The word epic doesn't get used often enough - agreed!! 

[Spindrift2017]

BBC TV forecast earlier was bullish about snow ‘even down to sea level’ although, of course, their forecasts are now provided by Meteogroup (not sure which models they favour) rather than the Met Office.

[asjmcguire]

Until they fix the issue that is crashing the site - you can get to the met warning directly using the link: Met Office Snow Warning (taken from the RSS feed)

[blitzen]

I wonder why I'm bored today?  5.3c/4.4c/1007/WSW/13mph/drizzle.

 

[Eagle Eye]

Wow

 

[snowlessayr]

Looking very interesting to say the least. Though it may be marginal the battleground type scenario will bring the snow level down to sea level I believe. They have been god awful recently but BBC also going for snow down to sea level. Where gets the most snow is completely up in the air at the moment. This type of stalling pivoting front is notoriously hard to predict hence the considerable uncertainty in the exact position.

Definitely looking like the biggest snowfall since the BFTE for most. Really hopeful we get a decent covering and hopefully more. Fingers crossed and there will be a lot of lampost watching for many this coming week

[metallikat34]

2 hours ago, Stormeh said:

I thought there would be more widespread warnings out for Scotland. Some charts are showing snow for many areas. I think it will come down to nowcasting, the last couple of weeks we had 2 unexpected snow events here 

 

I am also a bit surprised at the Met Office issued warnings. I suspect that they are heavily relying on the UKMet output. The ECMWF has been quite consistent over the last few runs with the low pressure position at 6am on Thursday. Now, how much of this falls as snow below 200m is a very good question. I can't really get access to a range of upper level temperature profiles beyond the GFS. And the GFS has been a bit too inconsistent over the last 12 hours to place much trust in their thermal profiles. 

 

Bottom

[CameronWS]

I live in the west and each run currently shows significant snow for Thursday in my location but the Met don’t seem to be buying it at all. Are they expecting the runs to trend SE with time or do they think the precipitation will simply just not reach as far as the models suggest? Particularly interested in this event because normally Battleground events here come from the west and given my near coastal location that means nearly always rain.

[metallikat34]

Yes, this is definitely a curious one to watch. As some have mentioned, I am a bit miffed at the Met Office warnings issued this afternoon. I suspect they are only comfortable issuing warnings for hazards and locations they are quite confident will verify. And regardless of model variations, lots of England and Wales will see heavy rain.

But the wildcard spot is for sure Scotland. ECMWF has been consistent with the low pressure position from run to run (image below). There is little doubt that areas above 200/250 meters will get dumped on. But I need to see some thermal profiles for lower locations as we get closer to the event. I only have access to the GFS vertical profiles, and as some may have heard (and I was able to confirm with a former colleague at NOAA this week), the new GFS is really struggling with meoscale variables at the moment. 

This is a very fluid situation (pun intended!) and I fully expect a lot of changing forecasts in the next 48-72 hours. 

[Norrance]

Wednesday night into Thursday still very much up in the air. Things should become clearer by the end of today.

Here this morning there was bright sunshine but it has clouded over this afternoon. 5C. 
This seems to be a regular theme this Winter. The best part of the day being in the morning.

Anyone else noticed this?

[BlueHedgehog074]

Suspect there will be a blizzard of snowy snaps blanketing this thread during the next few or so days, particularly from mid-week onwards  

Some stormy conditions very possible for you guys on Thursday too, so do take care out their (but as Norrance says above, still some uncertainties regarding how events play out for mid-week).  Latest for Thursday from the 12Z ICON below:

 

Sure is one grumpy Low, but some very wild gusts possible, perhaps especially more so towards Eastern Scotland. But very blowy over the hills and mountains I’d imagine. ICON probably being a bit too extreme blowing up that Low, mind. Something to certainly watch though

[Geedawg]

Guys what do you think my chance of good snow from this event is? I am forth in south lanarkshire. 287m up. I habe my fingers crossed!

[mountain shadow]

1 minute ago, Geedawg said:

Guys what do you think my chance of good snow from this event is? I am forth in south lanarkshire. 287m up. I habe my fingers crossed!

Looks good on the GFS 12z.

[Eastern Scotland WX]

Latest GFS really is exactly what we want in the central and eastern Scotland, not to far west like ICON which would bring rain for a bit in the east, and not to far east that we don't get any precipitation. 

[Daniel*]

Well we know ECM goes OTT with snow accumulation but given it forecasts over 50mm of “rain” across southern half of Scotland I feel @shuggee is going to get buried, quite the snow storm and significant drifting.... conditions are marginal for low levels, but I have no doubt on higher ground it looks real bad or good

I think this has red potential but perhaps won’t as most populous areas not unaffected as badly ... those pot noodles might come in handy.

[Eastern Scotland WX]

1 minute ago, Daniel* said:

Well we know ECM goes OTT with snow accumulation but given it forecasts over 50mm of “rain” across southern half of Scotland I feel @shuggee is going to get buried, quite the snow storm and significant drifting.... conditions are marginal for low levels, but I have no doubt on higher ground it looks real bad or good

I think this has red potential but perhaps won’t as most populous areas not unaffected as badly ... those pot noodles might come in handy.

it depends on how long the low stalls for and how close or far it is from the mainland. Will certainly know by tomorrow evening on what to expect in a good bit more detail. Um when was it, can't remember but the other week when there was a north east flow, it was expect to be completely dry with snow to the south of the cairngorms with some brief snow towards Dundee, but it kept lightly snowing that evening, however it didn't accumulate a whole lot as it was light. 

[Mr Frost]

Good thing is a few different models are agreeing on a more widespread snow risk - especially Thursday AM. 

ECM: Thursday 00:00

03z UKV run from this morning.

Thursday 03:00

 

06:00

 

09:00

Add on the GFS and many others of course! 

Excited to see what becomes of it all when the day arrives - decent Winter so far with regards to snow/surprise snowfall, ice days, frosts and low temperatures. 

Decent depth of cold currently to our E/NE!

 

UKMO day 5 chart:

Would be lovely to tap into some deep cold (-16 to -20 850hPa temperatures) at some stage! 

@Daniel* Aye mate - those ECM snow accumulations are always a bit OTT! Many of us would have experienced the snowiest Winter of all time had those been near the mark over the last couple of months! 

Edited January 18, 2021 by Mr Frost

[Eastern Scotland WX]

Arprege doesn't really pick up snow at light intensities so i suspect the snow is a little more widespread than its showing.

[SW Saltire]

42 minutes ago, CatchMyDrift said:

The GFS's precip type tends to massively overestimate snow potential, here's the dewpoints at the same time frame as @MAXcrazystorm's chart above:

That's going to be wet and windy for anyone below 200m within 20 miles of the North Sea.

Av already bought approximately 1 tonne of grit so am sorry to tell you but you’re wrong. If I can’t build an igloo then I had a nice life

I’ve told the gf ‘you’re getting over 6 inches, she’s incredibly excited (doesn’t normally like snow... strange) 

If it all goes wrong i’ll just take a page from the Neil Lennon handbook (Please watch Limmy’s recent vid - i’d get in trouble if I linked it) succinctly:

Don’t back down... double down

Edited January 18, 2021 by SW Saltire

[BurntFishTrousers]

<--- this

[101_North]

Excuse my ignorance but who is this Paul Blight character? His name's been popping up frequently on this thread. Just curious 

[BurntFishTrousers]

Twitter is your friend. 

[Eastern Scotland WX]

1 minute ago, 101_North said:

Excuse my ignorance but who is this Paul Blight character? His name's been popping up frequently on this thread. Just curious 

He's on twitter him.