Scotland/Alba weather discussion - Jan 2021 onwards

[mistyqueen]

Morning all from the Dreichfest of Skye. Hit the heady heights of 8.2c yesterday with plenty of precipitation thrown in. Calm and cloudy just now, waiting for the next few drops of rain to arrive to add to the general mud heap that is the garden. Charts changing so much every time I look at them. Will now ignore them and have a peek later in the week. That way the disappointment won't be so bad!

[mardatha]

My garden looks like one of those apocalypse films. Or the Somme before they got started.

[Northernlights]

Better morning drying up a bit now the frost is fully out of the ground with a fresh breeze clear skies and currently 4c

[Mr Frost]

Morning all!

Took a few days off looking at the models/charts after all the surprise snowfalls recently! 
Just going to wait and see what happens in the second half of the week ahead - plenty of wintry potential. 

Back to this weekend - had another lovely walk/run through the snowfall here on Friday afternoon! Still proper squeaky snow in places at a modest 140 meters - not bad considering it all arrived Wednesday overnight into early Thursday. 

 

 

Sadly it was all gone by Saturday morning...so it was back to the bog standard sea level walk/run! Pretty wild day with 35mph gusts and horizontal rain at times. 

 

Today it was up the local hill (90 meters) for the walk/run  - snow line over on the Cowal peninsula...patchy from about 400 meters and above!

 

Few glimpses of blue sky over the last few days but gloom/low cloud has been pretty constant! 

Hopefully plenty of cold/wintry weather to discuss later in the new week and beyond! 

All the best!

[Bullseye]

I like this guy! Although we would all prefer the ECM track of low.

 

[Halfamilefromnowhere]

Well my snow is clinging on ..just! Not sure it will last until next batch.  Better day with just a few light showers but looks darker to the NW

[blitzen]

4.4c/3.2c/1018.mbs/WSW/12mph.

Nice enough day here.  Bit of a sun shower going on at the moment.

 

Edited January 17, 2021 by Blitzen

[Puffy MacCloud]

The cloud to the south is just beginning to break up and we're now bathing in bright sunshine, which is a definite improvement from this morning. Well, the tiny little bit of 'this morning' that I saw. Anyhow it's better than it was and long may it continue.

Temperature 6.3deg.C up from 1.4deg.C minimum at 08:15, humidity is 91%, wind is 3 to 6mph southwesterly gusting to 10mph, pressure is 1022.2hPa falling slowly, there's been 2.0mm of rain today and the cloud cover is 7/8.

Happy Sunday to one and all.

[shuggee]

2 hours ago, Bullseye said:

I like this guy! Although we would all prefer the ECM track of low.

 

Looking at the Meto warnings is both inconclusive and telling. Amber or yellow warnings for rain right up to the Scottish border and an abrupt artificial boundary. Knowing what the pattern is for Tues-Thurs there's something they're not, yet, predicting. Maybe. 

[Stormeh]

21 minutes ago, shuggee said:

Looking at the Meto warnings is both inconclusive and telling. Amber or yellow warnings for rain right up to the Scottish border and an abrupt artificial boundary. Knowing what the pattern is for Tues-Thurs there's something they're not, yet, predicting. Maybe. 

Incoming Amber warnings of blizzards for Scotland 

[Glaswegianblizzard]

17 minutes ago, shuggee said:

Looking at the Meto warnings is both inconclusive and telling. Amber or yellow warnings for rain right up to the Scottish border and an abrupt artificial boundary. Knowing what the pattern is for Tues-Thurs there's something they're not, yet, predicting. Maybe. 

Yes that is quite notable. Guessing Met Office are calling it according to their own calculations over and above what the models say, which may or may not be borne out.

The iphone weather app model, which is from the Weather Channel, has decent reliability and predicted Thursday’s snow in Glasgow where others didn’t, says snow. Nothing about potential totals though.

 

 

[Hairy Celt]

4 minutes ago, Stormeh said:

Incoming Amber warnings of blizzards for Scotland 

Snizzly slizzards with graupelly gusts and floods.

And the morning was ok but grey and patchy rain now.

Edited January 17, 2021 by Hairy Celt

[metallikat34]

Well, the 12Z GFS is doubling down on a significant snow event for Scotland Wednesday Night/Thursday. If nothing else, at least for the Cairngorms and hills in the Borders. Central Belt is likely to see some measurable snow based on these model trends. Note the low pressure position in the GFS 12Z (left) and the 6Z GFS (right) for 6AM on Thursday morning. 

 

The trend has been to keep the center of a deep low pressure system close to the coast of Northumberland and making slow progress towards the North Sea for 6-12 hours. Lots of support for precipitation on the backside and what should be sufficiently cold air for several hours of moderate snow. The early morning timing is a good thing for locations below 100 m in the Central Belt as there is a higher likelihood of near 0 or below temperatures. 

Should be fun (and frustrating) watching this storm develop in the models over the next few days!

[edo]

We do not have to think that ..... Lets live in hope.... Lets think it is underdoing it..... The great snowstorm of 2021 we will never forget... How we huddled around candles in powercuts and wowed at the snow levels... 

 

I look fwd to the freezing cold rain

[BurntFishTrousers]

Will certainly be a big swell going down most of the north sea. Hope the Netherlands are prepared   

Fact remains, if this comes off, the north sea is a 100% feeder for snow. Probably be marginal temps again though

[Norrance]

Went for a stroll up in Dronley woods around 4 miles from my house but like a different country out in the sticks. Sunny when we left the house but soon clouded over with light graupel  falling which turned to rain. Underfoot a mix of ice, crunchy snow in places after this mornings frost, mud or where the trees (Norwegian Spruce I think) were close together a springy mulch. Nice to get some fresh air.

[blitzen]

Last time I put my bikini avatar up for a bit of reverse psychology. we got the thunder snow event!!   Whatdyafink?   Should put Shuggee off his pot noodles and mushy peas if nothing else!

Edited January 17, 2021 by Blitzen

[Stormeh]

The last two Thursdays into Friday have produced a good snow event here. Fingers crossed that I complete the hat trick this coming week

[shuggee]

It never turns out like this of course, but hey what an upgrade lol! 

And supplies in. 

 

[Northernlights]

Almost stayed dry today apart from a light late afternoon shower .Going to be a bit naughty now and repeat what i have said a few times the colours in the sky are more intense now with the lack of ground and air exhausts.

We have had a few clear sunsets since the begining of January with tonights no exception with its strong pinks.

 

The light too had a more springlike quality this afternoon

[101_North]

19 minutes ago, shuggee said:

It never turns out like this of course, but hey what an upgrade lol! 

And supplies in. 

 

Ooffftttt

[blitzen]

39 minutes ago, shuggee said:

It never turns out like this of course, but hey what an upgrade lol! 

And supplies in. 

 

Wow, I'm impressed!   A nice healthy looking shop there ('cept for the pot noodles!)

And mushrooms,   rich in vitamin D no less.   (Away ya wimp!)

[Sanserit]

1 hour ago, 101_North said:

Ooffftttt

I’ll see your oofft and raise you a wowcher

 

In other news, I actually went for a walk today for the first time since breaking my shoulder 4 weeks ago. Lovely day for it though still a lot of ice around in sheltered parts.

High of 5.6c after an overnight low of -0.9c. Currently 4.2c, DP 1.7c, pressure 1019.98 but beginning to fall. Looks like I’m going to have to make the most of any fine weather we might have if it’s going to get snowy again

Edited January 17, 2021 by Sanserit

[Geedawg]

Wow! This would be interesting. Fingers crossed

[snowy owl]

Maybe there is something in this storm !