Scotland/Alba weather discussion - Jan 2021 onwards

[101_North]

Met have at the very least started hinting at the possibility but it's literally an age away at this point! 

Outlook for Tuesday to Thursday:

Largely dry and bright through Tuesday and into Wednesday but rain or snow pushing up from the south later, this continuing on Thursday with winds picking up.

Updated: 16:00 (UTC) on Sun 17 Jan 2021

[howham]

I'm sure we'll miss out again... Will be the N*rth Sea be the spoiler?

[metallikat34]

12Z GFS operational output....that bottom line 

[Stormeh]

The 12z ECM again looks good for Scotland. Cold air never really leaving the country and signs of a northerly setting in towards the end?

Snow charts looking good from Thursday onwards.

 

Let’s hope conditions are right for snow for all levels. Plenty of interest over the next couple of weeks I feel

[Hairy Celt]

I know, let's all move to, let's see, erm, oh, Braeriach!

Cos I know what it'll be like here at sea level, and it's not nice. At best, horizontal sleet 

[damianslaw]

Scotland looks like escaping flooding that may likely plague parts of England and Wales, staying just to the north of the polar front het, consequently the coming week will be predominantly cold. 

[Penicuikblizzard]

3 hours ago, 101_North said:

Ooffftttt

What weather app is this ?

[aggy]

10 minutes ago, Penicuikblizzard said:

What weather app is this ?

I think it’s WX weather 

[Norrance]

58 minutes ago, Penicuikblizzard said:

What weather app is this ?

XC weather.

[101_North]

57 minutes ago, Penicuikblizzard said:

What weather app is this ?

It's the XC weather site. Their snow totals have become a bit of a running joke on the thread

[JoeShmoe]

[Hairy Celt]

21 minutes ago, CatchMyDrift said:

Awwww that's brought back memories of Geoff, my snow measuring stick I made for one of these GFS no-snow events 4 years ago

3 minutes ago, JoeShmoe said:

[Quinach]

Another very useable day.

Morning sunny, dry with light winds.

Afternoon cloudy with a passing drizzle shower, again light winds.

Bit cooler than yesterday with a max of 6c.

Kind of restricted in where you can go these days, so here's today's view of Bennachie 

[101_North]

51 minutes ago, JoeShmoe said:

I'm not buying any of this  

[101_North]

1 hour ago, CatchMyDrift said:

Awwww that's brought back memories of Geoff, my snow measuring stick I made for one of these GFS no-snow events 4 years ago

I remember it well. There were pictures too! Any happy chance you still have one to share? I think everyone on the forum should make a stick! Geoff could be the template

[Glaswegianblizzard]

So do we think this snow will make its way through to the Glasgow area a la the beast? We do quite well off easterly stuff usually, but does the angle of attack not need to be right?

[101_North]

17 minutes ago, CatchMyDrift said:

Now it's really bringing back memories....4 years is a lifetime.

The GFS forecast looked like this and the snow stick and chopped logs were beautifully presented by Clyde:

The black tape was placed at 15cm and 30cm. It finally got used just over a year later for the beastie snow.

I'm impressed at your archive retrieval

Edited January 17, 2021 by 101_North

[asjmcguire]

I'm quite tempted now to make a stick! I've been using a steel ruler, like a caveman! I'm just concerned that I might jinx things my spending the time to make a measuring stick......

[asjmcguire]

12 minutes ago, CatchMyDrift said:

@asjmcguire I left the stick when I moved out, wee night raid to Sisterpath Farm??

haha! Sadly, my husband passed away in July, and he was the driver. I'm pretty much housebound now.

[edo]

2 hours ago, Glaswegianblizzard said:

So do we think this snow will make its way through to the Glasgow area a la the beast? We do quite well off easterly stuff usually, but does the angle of attack not need to be right?

Not a convective easterly that often blows showers through to Glasgow and Lanarkshire at times when the flow is fast and decent uppers.... This is more a stalling front barrelling in from the east and at the moment does not look like be affecting Glasgow area but this will change a lot next few days.. And hopefully someone more knowledgeable will reply and say I'm talking nonsense .... Certainly gonna be a couple of interesting days of model runs. And looks like chances from N and NW aswell  potentially so a definite interesting period of weather. I am actually quite enjoying the thrill of bit of snow cover then gone and the chase begins again... Would still love a proper few inches fall... Snow here has held on remarkably well and local park still completely white with a snow ice mix.... I would say must be chillier here today than yesterday's drip drip but I have only been out to the local shop in the car..... Been a day of footy on tv and now American football.... Have treated myself to a couch day/night. 

[mistyqueen]

Morning all from a dreich and mild Skye..... again! I'm glad I had a spur of the moment urge to go out for a walk yesterday morning as the rain arrived half an hour after i returned home and was settling down with tea and shortbread. Doubt I'll be going anywhere today but tomorrow looks a bit more promising. 

As for this 'snow event' that may hit a few of you lucky people this week, please be kind and think of your less fortunate buddies on this site who, if they are lucky, will see one solitary snowflake, and have to make do with the usual pishy sleet in its place. Aye, she's grumbling again, never stops whingin' that yin! But please do post squillions of snow piccies so I can see what I'm missing! I can feel the excitement building! 

Currently 4.2c here, drizzle and wind. Happy days!

[edo]

6 hours ago, CatchMyDrift said:

I still think it's going to be marginal below 200m but higher ground should get a decent blasting off this:

I was looking thinking that's good the 528 dam line is well south of us and then it appears to tangle around the low pressure system.... Still appears to be plenty punch in this and gonna be really miserable where it is not snow which will probably be a fair old few places. Have actually lost most of the snow at the house overnight here.... Work calls but here's hoping for upgrades later as they say in the MT. 

[101_North]

6 hours ago, CatchMyDrift said:

I still think it's going to be marginal below 200m but higher ground should get a decent blasting off this:

I'm expecting the usual frontal event disappointment here. Latest GFS is a good example with a snow to rain event now being modelled for here. Only Monday though

 

 

[Penicuikblizzard]

4 minutes ago, 101_North said:

I'm expecting the usual frontal event disappointment here. Latest GFS is a good example with a snow to rain event now being modelled for here. Only Monday though

 

 

It was always going to be the case here to ge honest, I didn’t ever buy those narnia charts for the Edinburgh area, my old residence at Penicuik will likely be snowed in but my old house was sitting at 230m asl

[shuggee]

Morning. Modelling overnight by GFS has moved the path of the centre of the low 50 miles west across the 18z and 00z @03h00 Thurs T+69. Meanwhile, ECM have it 80 miles further east. With such minor changes making the difference between rain/sleet/snow and consistency of ppn throughout the 18 hour period. There's that word again for many - 'marginal'!