Scotland/Alba weather discussion - Jan 2021 onwards

[Eagle Eye]

9 hours ago, asjmcguire said:

haha! Sadly, my husband passed away in July, and he was the driver. I'm pretty much housebound now.

I am so sorry to hear that.

[Cheggers]

Heading home today, so hoping the models play ball and marginality lessens for later in the week.

 

I have updated my signature with a link to the Weather tool I did a few years ago most of the links work.

[101_North]

GFS 06Z have Edinburgh back in the firing line. Excitement on hold though as it will be marginality hokey cokey right up to Wednesday 

WXCHARTS

WXCHARTS.COM

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A new weather forecast model data viewer for Europe and North America. Clickable forecast and ensemble plots, hourly GFS, ECMWF, ARPEGE and GEFS plots

 

[shuggee]

29 minutes ago, shuggee said:

Morning. Modelling overnight by GFS has moved the path of the centre of the low 50 miles west across the 18z and 00z @03h00 Thurs T+69. Meanwhile, ECM have it 80 miles further east. With such minor changes making the difference between rain/sleet/snow and consistency of ppn throughout the 18 hour period. There's that word again for many - 'marginal'!

06Z GFS has now shifted to the ECM position, moving the centre back east at T+63/T+66. Lots more pink on XC Weather incoming. (It's going to drive me insane watching this every six hours).

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

Brief streamer tonight purely just to look at on radar as not expecting anything thundery from it, I won’t get the Clyde- forth streamer debate going looks like an Atlantic - North Sea ha also wintry showers in the north west. 

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

Just had a look back at the August weather summary from the MO and left me a bit to be honest, arguably Fife and Edinburgh got the worst of the storms yet not even mentioned  https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/metofficegovuk/pdf/weather/learn-about/uk-past-events/summaries/uk_monthly_climate_summary_202008v3.pdf

 

Edited January 18, 2021 by Kirkcaldy Weather

[pdiddy]

Even within Edinburgh the conditions can vary considerably.  The last event was mainly freezing rain/slushy ice for me, but a mile up Comiston Road and there was 3 inches of snow.

I rather suspect a similar outcome Weds/Thurs, even though the BBC has it more like snow on their forecast.

[Eastern Scotland WX]

Those those already freaking out about Wed/Thu it’s still 3 days out! Anything could happen from 12 hours of rain to 12 hours of snow or somewhere in between. 

[Mr Frost]

Proper Winter storm - would love some of that snowy action! 
That is a potential cracker for everyone (snow lovers) in those areas! Very jealous.

 

 

@Mair Snaw this could be you soon...

 

Edited January 18, 2021 by Mr Frost

[JoeShmoe]

if the word marginal is even mentioned then you can forget anything here I suspect !

[Mair Snaw]

8 minutes ago, Mr Frost said:

Proper Winter storm - would love some of that snowy action! 
That is a potential cracker for everyone (snow lovers) in those areas! Very jealous.

 

 

@Mair Snaw this could be you soon...

 

It will probably just rain..

[Penicuikblizzard]

11 minutes ago, JoeShmoe said:

if the word marginal is even mentioned then you can forget anything here I suspect !

As expected Edinburgh not getting in on the snow action

[Ravelin]

Just for fun, as a when I looked first thing this morning the same forecast was showing all rain....

No doubt it will switch every few hours from one to the other between now and Thursday.

Currently a sunny 4.3C here with a bit of a breeze. Looks nice, if only I can wrench myself away from the PC, as I'm supposed to be 'home teaching'.

Edit: I just added that up, roughly, and it's over 70cm if it all lay. With strong winds too, so it'd be drifting and I'd probably be cut off, for a bit at least.

Edited January 18, 2021 by Ravelin

[101_North]

4 minutes ago, Penicuikblizzard said:

As expected Edinburgh not getting in on the snow action

I'd not be throwing the towel in quite yet. Charts changing on every run and it's days away yet. 

[Stormeh]

I thought there would be more widespread warnings out for Scotland. Some charts are showing snow for many areas. I think it will come down to nowcasting, the last couple of weeks we had 2 unexpected snow events here 

 

[101_North]

7 minutes ago, 101_North said:

I'd not be throwing the towel in quite yet. Charts changing on every run and it's days away yet. 

What could possibly go wrong when the local gutter press are running headlines like this 

Edinburgh weather: 'Big freeze' coming as further snow and ice headed for the city - Edinburgh Live

WWW.EDINBURGHLIVE.CO.UK

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Below-average temperatures are expected within the next few weeks according to the Met Office

 

[Ravelin]

3 minutes ago, Stormeh said:

I thought there would be more widespread warnings out for Scotland. Some charts are showing snow for many areas. I think it will come down to nowcasting, the last couple of weeks we had 2 unexpected snow events here 

 

A bit early yet, the fact that there's a Yellow out already for the NE is surprise enough. I'd expect the warnings to change, possibly even an Amber if XC weather amounts are even remotely close for some

[Puffy MacCloud]

Rain here, and more rain. That's about it really.

Temperature 5.7deg.C up from 4.6deg.C at 04:38, humidity 94%, wind 2 to 6mph generally south-southeasterly with a 14mph gust at 01:47, pressure is 1013.4hPa falling slowly, 8.2mm of rain today and 17.4mm in the last 24 hours, cloud cover is 8/8.

[BurntFishTrousers]

A chart to change the mood of the naysayers. 

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

1 minute ago, BurntFishTrousers said:

A chart to change the mood of the naysayers. 

There’s the Kirkcaldy rain & snow boundary as others are saying there will be plenty changes before we get to Wednesday/ Thursday so nae point worrying currently

[Stormeh]

7 minutes ago, Ravelin said:

A bit early yet, the fact that there's a Yellow out already for the NE is surprise enough. I'd expect the warnings to change, possibly even an Amber if XC weather amounts are even remotely close for some

I guess so

I am very excited to see how this pans out, hopefully a good dumping of snow for some of us. I love it when there is a snow event here in Scotland. It’s great to see the reports of snow and the amazing pictures been posted in this thread as it happens 

[BurntFishTrousers]

Here's the wee shitey #StormChristoph captured earlier this morning. Will quickly form into something more obvious soon enough. 

[asjmcguire]

The GEFS for here is certainly trending low for the air pressure, but the T850 is trending up towards 0 and doesn't come back down to -5 until Friday now. 

 

[Quinach]

Another lovely sunny day here.

Light to fresh winds, currently 4.9c and only a few clouds.

Oh it's going to be so close here to a classic going by Yr (Norwegian met office has been more reliable than our own for this location the last few weeks!).

Word of the week - marginality.

[101_North]

37 minutes ago, BurntFishTrousers said:

A chart to change the mood of the naysayers. 

Not changed this naysayers mood much 

As a consolation, should it go mammaries verticus here, there should be plenty of decent photos being posted! 

Edited January 18, 2021 by 101_North