Scotland/Alba weather discussion - Jan 2021 onwards

[101_North]

Pick a topic, any topic and you'll find an expert on Twitter  Was genuinely curious after never hearing of the guy before. Not curious enough to start my own research though 

[asjmcguire]

2 minutes ago, 101_North said:

Pick a topic, any topic and you'll find an expert on Twitter  Was genuinely curious after never hearing of the guy before. Not curious enough to start my own research though 

Wondered the same, especially since he's not important enough on Twitter to have a name without a number in it.... Anyway A quick Google finds he is from UK Weather World. That doesn't really make things much clearer for me to be honest.

[Eastern Scotland WX]

1 minute ago, asjmcguire said:

Wondered the same, especially since he's not important enough on Twitter to have a name without a number in it.... Anyway A quick Google finds he is from UK Weather World. That doesn't really make things much clearer for me to be honest.

He's not bad as i follow him on twitter. Is he amazing? , no.

[Eagle Eye]

Aye, I can feel myself turning into a Scotsman every second. 

[blitzen]

Not sure I want to get embroiled in the predicted storm (or not).   We have been here soooo many times before only for it all to melt away 24hrs to time0!

If we can get to time 12hrs...then MAYBE I will sit up and take notice!   My way of protecting my sanity...which is already considerably affected by other events.

 

Edited January 18, 2021 by Blitzen

[JoeShmoe]

Well good developments on the 12zs, we want that occlusion to move slowly and as has been said follow the track shown on the 12z as that allows the cold air on the western side to undercut ... you guys in the favoured spots could be be in for an epic blizzard if this comes off we will be proper windy as well ... 

 

edit - interesting though that so far the met office are having none of it in terms of warnings, wonder if that charges after the 12zs?

Edited January 18, 2021 by JoeShmoe

[Ross B]

18 minutes ago, JoeShmoe said:

Well good developments on the 12zs, we want that occlusion to move slowly and as has been said follow the track shown on the 12z as that allows the cold air on the western side to undercut ... you guys in the favoured spots could be be in for an epic blizzard if this comes off we will be proper windy as well ... 

 

edit - interesting though that so far the met office are having none of it in terms of warnings, wonder if that charges after the 12zs?

Yeah, if you watch the met office video forecast for the week ahead on social media the front only really hits the North-East and moves off into the North Sea... whether they think the models are overplaying the deepness of the low or just its westward extent, who knows! As you say, lets hope for upgrades and as it currently stands there is also a chance of snow afterwards from the showers in the NW'ly airstream too.  

Edited January 18, 2021 by Ross B

[BurntFishTrousers]

Sean Batty barely a mention of the storm or snaw...

[Polar Side]

I think lower lying areas have a chance on Wednesday/Thursday too. The way the low sits in the North Sea with the colder airmass undercutting the precipitation, looks ideal for quite a lot of the country. 

Just watched BBC reporting Scotland forecast to see if they would mention it and they did and said that snow could be a problem by Thursday with very snowy graphics and no real mention about the marginal side of things.

The forecaster even mentioned snow to low levels around Edinburgh tomorrow night into Wednesday morning as rain in the south bumped into the colder air.

Ok, that’s my ramp over. Probably jinxed it for me and 101 now.

[Penicuikblizzard]

50 minutes ago, JoeShmoe said:

Well good developments on the 12zs, we want that occlusion to move slowly and as has been said follow the track shown on the 12z as that allows the cold air on the western side to undercut ... you guys in the favoured spots could be be in for an epic blizzard if this comes off we will be proper windy as well ... 

 

edit - interesting though that so far the met office are having none of it in terms of warnings, wonder if that charges after the 12zs?

On the BBC reporting Scotland forecast at 7pm,,,, looking like low level snow the whole of Eastern Scotland Wednesday night into Thursday morning and he mentioned significant snow in places
Fingers crossed 

[Polar Side]

11 minutes ago, BurntFishTrousers said:

Sean Batty barely a mention of the storm or snaw...

I watched that too, completely different to the bbc forecast. Kind of skipped Wednesday night/ Thursday and went straight to Friday and saying Friday was when the real cold air arrived. 

[asjmcguire]

My neighbour / extended support bubble has just WhatsApp'ed me to tell about the BBC forecast, because I have a prescription to pick up for her... They must be pretty sure about the forecast for them to be speaking about it like it's set in stone?

[JamesM]

Looking good for parts of Aberdeenshire I would say, might even see the warning upper to amber. Beyond that, some potential down the east coast perhaps. 
 

I certainly don’t expect to see anything here in the Glasgow end of East Ayrshire. Might pick up some showers in the northwesterly afterwards. 
 

A grey drizzly day today. Not feeling particularly cold. 

[shuggee]

GFS, ECM, MeteoGroup and BBC - 20-30cms for shuggee.

Met Office, chilly a bit windy. Maybe a shower. 

Hmmmmm. 

[Ross B]

Just now, shuggee said:

GFS, ECM, MeteoGroup and BBC - 20-30cms for shuggee.

Met Office, chilly a bit windy. Maybe a shower. 

Hmmmmm. 

Good plan buying those extra pot noodles... 

[Eastern Scotland WX]

20 minutes ago, Mr Frost said:

Spot on.

It has turned into a complete non event away from parts of the N/NE compared to the run from early this morning!

Latest UKV run:

Wednesday 00:00 - wintry mix arriving Tuesday night into the early hours Wednesday.

 

12:00

 

15:00

 

18:00

 

Basically there is pretty much nothing going on in between those hours and even into Thursday away from the previously discussed favoured areas. 

BBC Weather forecast will of course look different to this as they will be using ECM/Meteogroup charts.

Hopefully the BBC forecast becomes reality as more of us are at risk of snowfall!

From a purely IMBY perspective I am more interested in this! 

Friday 12:00

Still plenty of time to go so of all this could look completely different tomorrow. 

Exciting stuff again though for many of us - last year we barely had anything to discuss from a cold/snow point of view! 

UKV is never keen on snow,  i suspect its much more widespread than it says if you look at the temperature and 850mb temperatures. I think there is still likely for snow to low levels. UKV often too disorganised and snowless with these features.

[Eastern Scotland WX]

7 minutes ago, CatchMyDrift said:

The Euro4 has a decent upland (200m+) snow event tomorrow night across the south and another outside chance for below 200m: 

 

Projected snow depths from Euro 4. 

[shuggee]

Net Wx Medium Range model

The mystery deepens. 

[asjmcguire]

4 minutes ago, shuggee said:

 

The mystery deepens. 

Yes! BBC says snow here, Netweather was saying a small amount of snow earlier, but now has decided no snow for me....

[blitzen]

27 minutes ago, Ross B said:

Good plan buying those extra pot noodles... 

pot-noodle-mens-subli-tee-FRONT_640x640.webp

Edited January 18, 2021 by Blitzen

[Stuart]

Had a few snow days here but not lasted long looking forward to Thursday for snow as long it not rain or sleet I be happy  

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

27 minutes ago, CatchMyDrift said:

The Euro4 has a decent upland (200m+) snow event tomorrow night across the south and another outside chance for below 200m: 

 

It’s one of those wriggling fronts the kind that have pulses of precip along them, the 528 dam is a fair bit further north at that stage but as u say the higher ground across southern Scotland could get a bit 

[edo]

1 hour ago, Polar Side said:

I watched that too, completely different to the bbc forecast. Kind of skipped Wednesday night/ Thursday and went straight to Friday and saying Friday was when the real cold air arrived. 

Batty boy bottling the hard forecast

[edo]

Not as excited for potential storm looking at all latest info.... On to the next runs... I blame CMD the Doom mongering Canadian. 

[asjmcguire]

As I've been out of the weather circles for a bit, because of the previously given reason - I just wanted to ask a quick question. Have the various lockdowns, restrictions and grounding of flights - had a noticeable impact on the accuracy of the weather models?