Model output discussion - Jan 3rd onwards

[Jeremy Shockey]

GFS 6z short ensembles

Very cold up to 9th Jan ........ enough said

 

Edited January 3, 2021 by Jeremy Shockey

[Anthony Burden]

GFS sticking to it’s guns with Icelandic low dropping down over us before drifting east/northeast 

keeping cold going with perhaps short slight uptick in temperatures.Great for all cold lovers

who will be correct ECM/UKMO or GFS,my take key issue maintaining high pressure to the west/ northwest 

would keep cold theme going till SSW kicks in.

[Scott Ingham]

1 minute ago, davehsug said:

That's strange, because Nick Sussex used to regularly post discussions from US weather pros, which mostly consisted of ignoring the GFS and going with either ECM UKMO or a blend of the 2.

Yes but these werent set ups that included a greenland high. Look back to middle of december and youll see we had the same argument about ecm being a better model etc until it got within 96 and it was right.

Only one way to find out and thats to enjoy your sunday live life and see what the 12z brings

[Ali1977]

850 wise T162 is a slight upgrade on the ENS compared to the 00z with the -6c uppers I to England on a Northerly flow. (Latest is bottom image)

[Scott Ingham]

4 minutes ago, Griff said:

GFSP playing devil's advocate

Yeah it is mate! Not at day 5 tho a couple of days later which is more encouraging

[radiohead]

1 minute ago, davehsug said:

That's strange, because Nick Sussex used to regularly post discussions from US weather pros, which mostly consisted of ignoring the GFS and going with either ECM UKMO or a blend of the 2.

Certainly when it comes to tropical weather, the ECM is often called "King Euro" by the forecasters in the US!

 

 

[Ali1977]

The control is a much better run compared to its 00z, especially with Greeny blocking.

[Nick F]

19 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:

Its not that complicated its the extra amp in the GFS early doors pushing the pacific low deeper into america. 

It highlights the importance upstream to downstream mate

Agree, it does appear the models are struggling with the fast flow out of the Pacific into N America - which is characterised by short-wave lengths over USA with numerous shortwaves moving east in split southern and northern streams which merge off the east coast. How these shortwaves interact when they arrive towards the Atlantic against a big block maybe causing some model uncertainty over the NW Atlantic sector. Add to this what appears to be too much volatility over the arctic between models and run-to-run of each model, hard to call any model correct past days 5-6.

 

[Scott Ingham]

1 minute ago, Ali1977 said:

The control is a much better run compared to its 00z, especially with Greeny blocking.

Yeah and notice the rise in 850s around the 9th coincides with a potential battleground period. Less cold but potentially more snowy

[Duane S.]

3 pages of ignored users and rising fast after several more added this morning . It’s definitely the way forward. To those getting seriously fed up with this forum being spoilt by certain people, I say try it, the forum suddenly becomes a much nicer place. 

The incessant whining, glass half empty, and negativity (obviously I am not including the genuine objective posts), this attention seeking need to play Devils Advocate, the ridiculous knee jerk emotional tantrums when we get a less good suite, ruin the experience of model watching on this forum. It’s always the same people and now a few new ones. 

We know the deal, we have a wonderful looking Northern Hemisphere (the likes of which do not come along very often), we are on the verge of a nailed on SSW, and most people on here fully understand how the charts struggle with these non-norm set ups.
 

It is indeed all about the big picture. Even if this does end up being a memorable cold and snowy winter, it won’t have been without less cold periods, even the greatest winters endured those, to one degree or another. And even if the Euros are correct this morning, and yes, they could well be, (although personally I’m far from convinced they are) the best potential is still yet to come.

By all means, we can all come back in April and have a wash down autopsy, but until the winter is over and whilst this incredible potential persists, I’m not going to be dragged down and have this time ruined. 
 

[SLEETY]

25 minutes ago, NewEra21 said:

Didn't the GFS stick to it's guns on predicting the current cold spell when UKMO and ECM were having none of it. Then they both slowly crawled back over to match the GFS, before the GFS then had a bit of a wobble.

Not saying the GFS is right, but over the past few weeks its got more respectability than the UKMO and ECM imo.

Thats correct it called this current cold spell first and was rock steady with it,whilst the UKMO and ECM were all over the place,before failing into place.

Its credibility has gone up in recent weeks and if its proved correct again it will go through the roof whilst ECM and UKMO IF they both get it so far wrong at 5 days ahead,then their credibility will be going beneath Zero.

The differences are some sort of joke now

[Scott Ingham]

Just now, Nick F said:

Agree, it does appear the models are struggling with the fast flow out of the Pacific into N America - which is characterised by short-wave lengths over USA with numerous shortwaves moving east in split southern and northern streams which merge off the east coast. How these shortwaves interact when they arrive towards the Atlantic against a big block maybe causing some model uncertainty over the NW Atlantic sector. Add to this what appears to be too much volatility over the arctic between models and run-to-run of each model, hard to call any model correct past days 5-6.

 

Yeah exactly that Nick.

Summed up beautifully.

Also a lot of talk about a rise in 850s 9th or 10th and screaming breakdown.

I scream low pressure moving into a cold pool. 

Potentially snowy i think before we head colder again

[Ali1977]

Not many GFS ENS following the ECM and co by day 8, over to the 12z. Beyond day 8 is anyone’s guess.

[nick sussex]

9 minutes ago, davehsug said:

That's strange, because Nick Sussex used to regularly post discussions from US weather pros, which mostly consisted of ignoring the GFS and going with either ECM UKMO or a blend of the 2.

True. They normally do  side with the ECM . This mornings discussions however have gone with a blended solution upto Saturday but they say after that there’s a lot of uncertainty with the flow from the Pacific .

The GFS manages to develop the ridge towards Greenland as it has more amplification digging south over the central northern portion of the USA.

The Euro combo at day 5 and 6 is normally very unlikely to be wrong . Let’s hope that’s not the case this time .

[IDO]

The gfs op is  great run pretty much from start to finish with a small window of less cold uppers. 

The gefs at d8 are a mixed bunch with three main synoptics, the gfs op, ecm op and something in-between. Not very helpful TBH, and although still in the game, the 12z should trend to the likely outcome?

d8> 

[davehsug]

Just now, nick sussex said:

True. They normally do  side with the ECM . This mornings discussions however have gone with a blended solution upto Saturday but they say after that there’s a lot of uncertainty with the flow from the Pacific .

The GFS manages to develop the ridge towards Greenland as it has more amplification digging south over the central northern portion of the USA.

The Euro combo at day 5 and 6 is normally very unlikely to be wrong . Let’s hope that’s not the case this time .

Thanks Nick. I was referring more generally as you say. I was making no comment on what is clearly, a volatile situation at the moment, merely trying to balance what I believe may mislead some members, who are maybe not quite so long in the tooth when it comes to these inter-model punch-ups!

[Ice Day]

Another very solid set of short GEFS for my location.  

A cold week coming up with snow chances for most on here, that will do for now.

[Cold Winter Night]

6 minutes ago, s4lancia said:

3 pages of ignored users and rising fast after several more added this morning . It’s definitely the way forward. To those getting seriously fed up with this forum being spoilt by certain people, I say try it, the forum suddenly becomes a much nicer place. 

The incessant whining, glass half empty, and negativity (obviously I am not including the genuine objective posts), this attention seeking need to play Devils Advocate, the ridiculous knee jerk emotional tantrums when we get a less good suite, ruin the experience of model watching on this forum. It’s always the same people and now a few new ones. 

We know the deal, we have a wonderful looking Northern Hemisphere (the likes of which do not come along very often), we are on the verge of a nailed on SSW, and most people on here fully understand how the charts struggle with these non-norm set ups.
 

It is indeed all about the big picture. Even if this does end up being a memorable cold and snowy winter, it won’t have been without less cold periods, even the greatest winters endured those, to one degree or another. And even if the Euros are correct this morning, and yes, they could well be, (although personally I’m far from convinced they are) the best potential is still yet to come.

By all means, we can all come back in April and have a wash down autopsy, but until the winter is over and whilst this incredible potential persists, I’m not going to be dragged down and have this time ruined. 
 

Exactly.

Even IF the ECM 0Z would happen as shown, that +240h chart is still a cold spell in the making.

Heights in the Arctic region, and where has the Russian High gone so suddenly?
The vaporizing of that feature, so prominent in the last weeks, even months is a strange sight to behold in itself. It takes Ec just 2-3 days to do it. SSW effect?

[SMU]

I know ( for a change ) its a slightly IMBY post but is 100% model related.

The high res models now working on T48 & below-

HIRLAM goes for 5-6cm over the hills in the SE - maybe low ground as well. Could be higher at the core of the streamer.

[Penrith Snow]

My own opinion is that this cold spell has been very half hearted and localised to the UK, you only gave to look at the lack of snow across Europe to see that. Without the SSW I think this cold spell would have been it for winter 2021 due to El Nina forcing, but the SSW which is a strong one will override everything else and has the potential to bring proper cold to Europe.

If had to bet my pension on it (glad I dont) I would bet on a  very cold February following the current SSW, milder weather in mid  January will be temporary IMO.

Andy

Edited January 3, 2021 by Penrith Snow

[Guest]

22 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

 

the atmosphere is already reversed above 20hpa at the pole and as far south as 40N at 3hpa. So no model is blind to the reversal - it’s already in starting data 

the issue can only be that a particular model is struggling to resolve how that affects the strat below and into the trop. 

Cheers BA.....So given that, how long do you reckon before models have a handle on this. I can't remember what model sniffed out the 2018 BFTE first, all I can remember is it kept getting pushed back further and further! And if that's the case this time at least we have plenty of time on our hands!

[Frosty.]

Too my untrained eyes ? ?..the ECM 0z ensemble mean seems a tad colder than last nights 12z..or am I wearing rose tinted spectacles?..anyway..I want cold as much, if not more than the next coldie!..have no doubt about that!

[Tim Bland]

6 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

I know ( for a change ) its a slightly IMBY post but is 100% model related.

The high res models now working on T48 & below-

HIRLAM goes for 5-6cm over the hills in the SE - maybe low ground as well. Could be higher at the core of the streamer.

Comparing to the total precip chart it looks like it’s picking out the downs and chilterns  so perhaps mainly sleet or rain below 150m? Could fall lower if intensity increases (evap coming)...up until Tuesday morning at least. Tuesday looks the best bet for the south / east as uppers / DPs should be low enough for lowland snow 

[Vikos]

EC Scenarios by 00z

      

 

[bluearmy]

Just to correct a myth that seems to have been created this morning without correction - the pre Xmas drop of the trough was not mis modelled by Ukmo. By the time we got to day 6 all the models were on the same page. 
 

ecm didn’t agree with gfs between days 8/10 on many runs. I recall below day 8 it was fully on board .....