South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion January 2021 onwards

[E17boy]

4 minutes ago, E17boy said:

Hi peeps

I would love to know where these weather apps get their data from For London it's showing snow starting from 3pm tomorrow which obviously is more likely to be wrong. Like today when it showed snow for 3 hours and we know what it turned out today. Talking about false hopes

Lol that's just changed again now to 7pm now to one snow symbol for an hot then rain at 8 

[Tornadotitan]

Very clear atmosphere out there tonight

[Stu_London]

9 minutes ago, Tornadotitan said:

Very clear atmosphere out there tonight

M-O-O-N that spells Moon

Looks like the GFS 18 operational  has removed the 12 Z blizzard - its still there but over the channel and France on the 18Z

The GFS 18z para is quite snowy however with a better easterly and more convective fun

All of the models are moving towards a cold spell, lots to be resolved on timing etc, however a significant part of it will be surface cold which is not conductive to snow. 

So, we need to get the snow early if we can - there will be a good chance it will hang around if we can get some. 

[lottiekent]

1 hour ago, Stu_London said:

M-O-O-N that spells Moon

Looks like the GFS 18 operational  has removed the 12 Z blizzard - its still there but over the channel and France on the 18Z

The GFS 18z para is quite snowy however with a better easterly and more convective fun

All of the models are moving towards a cold spell, lots to be resolved on timing etc, however a significant part of it will be surface cold which is not conductive to snow. 

So, we need to get the snow early if we can - there will be a good chance it will hang around if we can get some. 

Great quote! Shame the new version of the series is pay per view here in the uk.

 

Very windy here tonight but dry at last at least.

[alexisj9]

1 minute ago, lottiekent said:

Great quote! Shame the new version of the series is pay per view here in the uk.

 

Very windy here tonight but dry at last at least.

Yep windy here too, makes it feel much colder than it is.

[Stu_London]

Update - the GFS 18Z para is modelling the most brutal long lasting cold spell for the UK that I have seen in 22 years of model watching -  it would probably put 1991(which is a bit of a benchmark for beasts) in the shade if verifying just on the sheer longevity of the cold uppers. 

For us and a lot of Southern England (and might be a blessing, aside from severe weather enthusiasm) its not so bad for a few days as we stay on the milder side of the battleground, but we would get in on the action at the start and then again later in the spell - which shows no sign off letting up at +384, if anything the uppers get colder.

Ok - its way into FI and it has little support from other models so very small percentage chance of verification, but its the para for a reason, its been upgraded to disrupt the current crop of models and potentially lead in predicting outcomes. But its also still the GFS. One to keep half an eye on 

[Stu_London]

23 minutes ago, lottiekent said:

Great quote! Shame the new version of the series is pay per view here in the uk.

 

Very windy here tonight but dry at last at least.

I'm paying!

some very stark changes made - some of the peripheral characters have had there gender changed and two of the main characters have had there race changed (Probably had to be done in 2021), apart from the introduction of internet and mobile phones (the networks of which fail pretty quickly anyway).

The original tv mini series was very faithful to the book (which incidentally is the book that has given the most nightmares to date) which I liked but tv mini series in them days were made in a low budget way that  aged them very quickly, so its a bit wooden in comparison. 

The new tv mini series takes a few liberties with the script but has outstanding cinematography (Think IT film vs IT tv mini series). It does flip between time periods whereas the original series was fairly strictly screened in the order that events took place. Not sure the flipping between time works - might be trying to be too clever for its own good. If you didn't already know the plot, you might find it a touch confusing, however I suspect most people will already know the story as it is a bit of cult.

Interesting watch in the middle of a real pandemic, although the new series makes a little less of the horrors of the pandemic than the book and the first mini series. 

Watched the first 4 episodes so far as they only release one a week. Hopefully they will screen it on a non subscription channel in the future so it gets a wider audience, overall it probably deserves it, as does Mr Mercedes, another King adaptation stuck on that channel. 

 

Edited January 31, 2021 by Stu_London

[Blessed Weather]

Beautiful sunrise here in Suffolk after yet another frost. Seems to be a good year for frosts so far. Can we achieve a notable snowy spell for our Region too? Atm it's all eyes on next weekend. I hope the models make their minds up soon...... one way or another, before my nails disappear!

[Sparky68]

Cold this morning 

Edited January 31, 2021 by Sparky68

[Blazerblue]

Sunrise on and cold bright morning

[lottiekent]

7 hours ago, Stu_London said:

I'm paying!

some very stark changes made - some of the peripheral characters have had there gender changed and two of the main characters have had there race changed (Probably had to be done in 2021), apart from the introduction of internet and mobile phones (the networks of which fail pretty quickly anyway).

The original tv mini series was very faithful to the book (which incidentally is the book that has given the most nightmares to date) which I liked but tv mini series in them days were made in a low budget way that  aged them very quickly, so its a bit wooden in comparison. 

The new tv mini series takes a few liberties with the script but has outstanding cinematography (Think IT film vs IT tv mini series). It does flip between time periods whereas the original series was fairly strictly screened in the order that events took place. Not sure the flipping between time works - might be trying to be too clever for its own good. If you didn't already know the plot, you might find it a touch confusing, however I suspect most people will already know the story as it is a bit of cult.

Interesting watch in the middle of a real pandemic, although the new series makes a little less of the horrors of the pandemic than the book and the first mini series. 

Watched the first 4 episodes so far as they only release one a week. Hopefully they will screen it on a non subscription channel in the future so it gets a wider audience, overall it probably deserves it, as does Mr Mercedes, another King adaptation stuck on that channel. 

 

I will pay to watch once all the episodes are out as I’m too curious not to. I read all things King and usually watch the tv or movie adaptations (which of course have varying degrees of success!) - still hoping for a full Dark Tower series, maybe best as a tv series.

As for the weather, down to 2.7c in the night, not cold enough to freeze over yesterday’s rain thankfully. Currently sunny, 3.0c and still windy (wind chill on weather station shows as zero).

[Biggin]

Tad chilly atm.

 

 

[nanu]

8 hours ago, Stu_London said:

Update - the GFS 18Z para is modelling the most brutal long lasting cold spell for the UK that I have seen in 22 years of model watching -  it would probably put 1991(which is a bit of a benchmark for beasts) in the shade if verifying just on the sheer longevity of the cold uppers. 

For us and a lot of Southern England (and might be a blessing, aside from severe weather enthusiasm) its not so bad for a few days as we stay on the milder side of the battleground, but we would get in on the action at the start and then again later in the spell - which shows no sign off letting up at +384, if anything the uppers get colder.

Ok - its way into FI and it has little support from other models so very small percentage chance of verification, but its the para for a reason, its been upgraded to disrupt the current crop of models and potentially lead in predicting outcomes. But its also still the GFS. One to keep half an eye on 

errrrm.. I wouldn't go into that mod thread this afternoon, if you do? tread very lightly as all the cry babies could be starting to look tearful again by what's happening... you can sense the frustration building.

[SLEETY]

 

14 minutes ago, nanu said:

errrrm.. I wouldn't go into that mod thread this afternoon, if you do? tread very lightly as all the cry babies could be starting to look tearful again by what's happening... you can sense the frustration building.

ECm another huge outlier though,dont think anyone is crying for something that hasnt happened yet

[jamesgold]

GFS 6z is not as good for our snow potential in the South. MOD thread is going to be tense today

[lawrenk]

Latest models suggesting the kick in the g**ads for us in the SE continues with yet more rain whilst the areas that have already seen lots of the white stuff continue to get buried. Let’s hope the MO are calling this right.

[clark3r]

Really need spring to come soon had enough of this crappy weather 

[jamesgold]

Word from MOD thread that 6z is a bit of a synoptic difference to its mean, which is better for us. So it’s all to play for, I just expect things to move around for a few days. When it’s based on the position of a low, we see how at such short notice those can change anyway

[Icebox]

13 minutes ago, lawrenk said:

Latest models suggesting the kick in the g**ads for us in the SE continues with yet more rain whilst the areas that have already seen lots of the white stuff continue to get buried. Let’s hope the MO are calling this right.

They may call it right re: the Easterly which gives the north the North a battering with the white stuff as per 06z Gfs, whilst the SE still gets hammered with rain... fine margins.

[Snow Queen one]

In my opinion all peeps living approx South of M20 towards coast are going to be dissapointed with this winter.  We are just not going to be blessed being in the right place for snow.  Expect nothing and you cannot be let down.  One plus is that we will still have vaccine centre open and operating whilst up north may not.  This means if they bring tiers back after lockdown we may well be the first down here to be free.  And I would prefer freedom to snow this year.

[Icebox]

1 minute ago, Snow Queen one said:

In my opinion all peeps living approx South of M20 towards coast are going to be dissapointed with this winter.  We are just not going to be blessed being in the right place for snow.  Expect nothing and you cannot be let down.  One plus is that we will still have vaccine centre open and operating whilst up north may not.  This means if they bring tiers back after lockdown we may well be the first down here to be free.  And I would prefer freedom to snow this year.

To be honest I've already thrown the towel in... if it snows great... if it doesn't it's not the end of the world. I want a few dry days right now... the gardens sprouted it's own water features!

[Snow Queen one]

I agree icebox the water here has stopped draining away and started coming back up through the paving slabs lol heres to some dry weather.  We can only hope

[Shunter]

32 minutes ago, jamesgold said:

GFS 6z is not as good for our snow potential in the South. MOD thread is going to be tense today

Yes i think people in the south need to stand back and analyse the most recent NWP output ( over the last 24 hours ).

1. There has been a definitive move AWAY from a HP cell centred across the North to a more Atlantic dominated pattern.

2. The MJO is "retreating " towards stage 6,

3. Teleconnections are showing signs of neutral AO/NAO in the next 7 days.

4. The MET seem to have diluted the HP long term a little.

5. Record breaking warmth in parts of Southern Europe at the moment.  

So although nothing is set in stone it does appear that the chances for prolonged Cold & Snow is diminishing for the Southern part of the UK  ( AT THE MOMENT ). 

All is not lost but it does appear like a repeat of Cold Snowy North & Slushy/Flooded South is set to continue. 

If no Snow then let Spring come quickly. 

     

[Lampostwatcher]

Not panicking yet

[kold weather]

Reasonable chance of snow TODAY for some on higher ground looking at the latest radar and high resolution models.

Probably going to need high ground mind you, but could get a dusting over the N.Downs for example.