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Model output discussion - January cold spell ending, what next?

Paul

By Paul
in Forecast Model Discussion

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Paul
Message added by Paul,

Please stick to discussing the model output in this thread. For more general chat , please use the winter/cold weather/snow chat, banter, moans and ramps thread. 

For local cold/snow and weather related chat, please head over to the Regional Area.

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Griff Veteran

Griff

Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
Posted
Just now, IDO said:

Remember the bigger picture, low heights dropping as they move from Asia to Scandi:

2112948792_ink(3).thumb.png.42e3a34c4e31eacd5ab4acb5e162e7f6.png

Due post-d7 in the last few runs.

Apologies for posting pretty much same thing twice, appears I magically deleted the first or upset the god of moderation? 

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Battleground Snow Maestro

Battleground Snow

Posted
  • Location: Coventry
  • Location: Coventry
Posted (edited)

ECM very good at 168, yet again cuts off low and will be a nice ridge into Greenland.

I think we need another 48 hours untill we can be confident that it's modelling  this and the American low pressure system correctly

 

ECH1-168 (2).gif

Edited by Battleground Snow
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o0herbie Rookie

o0herbie

Posted
  • Location: Near Reading - 100m asl
  • Location: Near Reading - 100m asl
Posted
4 minutes ago, CSC said:

There’s the potential for an easterly developing at just day 7. Come on ECM!

A9442D4D-CBF3-43CA-8E7F-1D087B0BA277.jpeg

This is the kind of post that drives an amateur like me insane. A lot of explanation as to how an area of nothing on the southern tip of Greenland can turn in to an easterly is needed!

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CSC Enthusiast

CSC

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, o0herbie said:

This is the kind of post that drives an amateur like me insane. A lot of explanation as to how an area of nothing on the southern tip of Greenland can turn in to an easterly is needed!

Maybe you misunderstood what I was insulating, sorry. I meant the jet to push in that direction, to create a flow of air from the east.

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Frostbite1980 Community Regular

Frostbite1980

Posted
  • Location: Swineshead, Boston, Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Swineshead, Boston, Lincolnshire
Posted
3 minutes ago, o0herbie said:

This is the kind of post that drives an amateur like me insane. A lot of explanation as to how an area of nothing on the southern tip of Greenland can turn in to an easterly is needed!

It's called learning and he/she is trying to decipher what is going on, don't put them off, we all learn something every day!

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Tim Bland Maestro

Tim Bland

Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
Posted (edited)

Getting there slowly ...

4F5D2D53-2B05-4EB2-8541-F42EC35F13A7.gif
 

I expect by day 10 there will be

potential ?

Edited by Tim Bland
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CSC Enthusiast

CSC

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, o0herbie said:

This is the kind of post that drives an amateur like me insane. A lot of explanation as to how an area of nothing on the southern tip of Greenland can turn in to an easterly is needed!

May I add an Easterly / NE’ly is more than plausible from this position. Not too sure what has driven you insane. Maybe the grinch has arrived late for Christmas!

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Frostbite1980 Community Regular

Frostbite1980

Posted
  • Location: Swineshead, Boston, Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Swineshead, Boston, Lincolnshire
Posted
3 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Getting there slowly ...

4F5D2D53-2B05-4EB2-8541-F42EC35F13A7.gif

A sharper ridge in the Atlantic would make a huge difference, still not to be sneezed at!

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Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Posted

TBH, I don't think the 12Z ens are all that convincing... Cold at around Day 10 (ain't that a surprise!) and then what? Why, of course -- trust in the trusty Control:

t850Bedfordshire.png    t2mBedfordshire.png 

And here are the 12Z NH profiles... Things could be worse. A lot worse!

npsh500mean-006.png    npsh500mean-120.png

npsh500mean-240.png    npsh500mean-384.png

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IDO Maestro

IDO

Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill
Posted
2 minutes ago, CSC said:

Maybe you misunderstood what I was insulating, sorry. I meant the jet to push in that direction, to create a flow of air from the east.

Yes, most of us got where you were coming from! We were all hoping for a flip, but recent runs had pre-ordered the trough dropping and squashing those heights over Scandi; sadly!

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SMU Maestro

SMU

Posted
  • Popular Post
Posted

A pretty poor day model watching.


UKMO has trended flatter, ECM also poor all the way out past 192.

We are pinning hopes on outputs past 200 again which is always dicey at best.

Shame really just as the deep cold was getting going like the good old days...

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Mike Poole Maestro

Mike Poole

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
Posted (edited)

ECM T216

2E79CC46-E5BD-4FF9-A3B8-140367E2B68C.thumb.png.3fbbe28f9786779956986085fac84010.png

The ridge into Greenland should merge with the remnants of the arctic high and it might not be the best synoptics but could be good in terms of angle of attack of the cold air later.

Edited by Mike Poole
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That ECM Maestro

That ECM

Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
Posted
3 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

A pretty poor day model watching.


UKMO has trended flatter, ECM also poor all the way out past 192.

We are pinning hopes on outputs past 200 again which is always dicey at best.

Shame really just as the deep cold was getting going like the good old days...

Not the same but nhp is good no? When weren’t we looking at T200 plus recently Steve? Or have I missed something?

3903930A-E9DA-4F4A-A43D-92EF72608B1B.png

989B4C14-8BE2-4F89-A8CE-581C0698E646.png

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Griff Veteran

Griff

Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
Posted (edited)
7 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

A pretty poor day model watching.


UKMO has trended flatter, ECM also poor all the way out past 192.

We are pinning hopes on outputs past 200 again which is always dicey at best.

Shame really just as the deep cold was getting going like the good old days...

Excellent, throw the towel in again and hopefully tomorrow's charts will be fantastic  

I'm kidding of course, but trying to remain glass half full, only a few days ago everyman and his dog was advocating scatter and uncertainty, after SSW. 

I don't have your experience, so happy to be proven wrong. 

But on the plus side at least models are being referenced to express a personal opinion. 

Chin up the pub run might be exciting? 

Edited by Griff
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stratty Aficionado

stratty

Posted
  • Location: Mid Welsh/English Border
  • Weather Preferences: Snow! Exciting weather!
  • Location: Mid Welsh/English Border
Posted
5 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

A pretty poor day model watching.


UKMO has trended flatter, ECM also poor all the way out past 192.

We are pinning hopes on outputs past 200 again which is always dicey at best.

Shame really just as the deep cold was getting going like the good old days...

............not expecting anything before this, are we?

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BalderstoneNick Rookie

BalderstoneNick

Posted
  • Location: Preston,lans
  • Location: Preston,lans
Posted (edited)
43 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

you seriously telling me it was not signposted on the ensembles suites at all???    The reason there are 51 and 30 member suites are to allow for the lower resolution and that some members will pump out total bilge.

Seriously yes. There may have been an odd ensemble that picked it up in the far reaches and it disappeared next run (as you would expect that far out) but it wasn't until it got within the ECM op kind of time frame 168-240 that they suddenly started lining up with the opp. Total one off probably and never seen it again.

Point is the Op is higher res out to 192. So you would expect that it's starting point at that time frame to be slightly or substantially superior to the end for later FI? Questioning myself as well as you? The t384 down to zero was a fluke I am sure and nothing is really worth looking at at that distance apart from maybe looking for any SSW effects on trop. 

Ps apart from Glacier point we had little access to other ensembles, drivers and indeed the in-depth physics knowledge. Not like we do now on here, so it's unlikely nothing would see it nowadays.

Edited by BalderstoneNick
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