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Model output discussion - January cold spell ending, what next?

Paul

By Paul
in Forecast Model Discussion

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Paul
Message added by Paul,

Please stick to discussing the model output in this thread. For more general chat , please use the winter/cold weather/snow chat, banter, moans and ramps thread. 

For local cold/snow and weather related chat, please head over to the Regional Area.

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Tim Bland Maestro

Tim Bland

Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
Posted (edited)

Sorry guys but not really feeling the love for either GFs models tonight. For south of Manchester the GFS has a 3 -4 days of cold & GFSp 2 -3 days days. Probably considered good in years gone by but hoping for more to be honest. 

GEM also falls short of anything cold enough for snow on low ground away from Scotland. A bit disappointing, but hopefully both are wrong and we get more out of this post SSW setup considering past runs. Here’s to a Stella ECM  

Edited by Tim Bland
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feb1991blizzard Maestro

feb1991blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Posted (edited)
10 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

IMO the GEFS will not 'see' the pattern better than the op...and what have we had so far? 3/4 ops showing N Atlantic blocking by D10? The ensembles will not model the strat as accurately as the op...

Anyone expecting ensemble help at the moment is living in cuckoo land

Disagree, loads of flatliners on the 6z suite, the best suite this winter for proper cold, the ensembles are doing their job, they are showing that these ops have some credence.

Edited by feb1991blizzard
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northwestsnow Maestro

northwestsnow

Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
Posted
1 minute ago, Tim Bland said:

Sorry guys but not really feeling the love for either GFs models tonight. For south of Manchester the GFS has a 3 -4 days day cold and GFSp 2 -3 days days. A bit disappointing, but hopefully both are wrong and we get more out of this post SSW setup considering past runs. Here’s to a Stella ECM  

Let's get that ridge up to Greenland and then concentrate on duration.

All that said, I tend to agree i would prefer a little less scatter on the GEFS ..

Its actually downstream I have niggles about as opposed to upstream ..

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LRD Accomplished

LRD

Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal
  • Location: Bedfordshire
Posted (edited)
22 minutes ago, Notty said:

GFS doesn't have a scooby what is going to happen after 12th:

 

gfs-pontypool-gb-515n-3w.jpeg

Looks more dramatic when the graph breaks 850 temps into units of 2

In units of 5 it looks more certain - that is a colder trend beyond the end of next week

image.thumb.png.941a56215453768ed44bbcc00c8d6cde.png

That's the positive. The negative is that the really cold uppers (-8s and -10s and below) are still looking elusive

Edited by LRD
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Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Posted
7 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Come on Ed, absolute ridiculous FI, GFS 12Z is decent, keeps hopes alive of northerly/cold around 18th, even that's too far in FI

h850t850eu.png

That is of course quite true, mate... But you are, to put it mildly, altogether missing my point!

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BalderstoneNick Rookie

BalderstoneNick

Posted
  • Location: Preston,lans
  • Location: Preston,lans
Posted (edited)
14 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Disagree, loads of flatliners on the 6z suite, the best suite this winter for proper cold, the ensembles are doing their job, they are showing that these ops have some credence.

Was it 2010 or 2009 (or other notable cold spell) where the op picked it up at t384 and amazingly ran with it all the way until t00. Up to t144-168 the ensembles were  all over the place like the Benny hill theme tune. 

Surely because it has a higher res it should be more accurate for the 4-8 day period and therefore slightly more accurate for the 10 day charts?

 

Edited by BalderstoneNick
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CSC Enthusiast

CSC

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, Ice Day said:

Here you go

6554b6be8c0d829a8bf63ae0c82cf121_link.pn

WWW.METEOCIEL.FR
Diagrammes des ensembles GEFS de la NOAA (graphes ENS GFS). 21 scénarios de GEFS.

Just click on your location and you're good to go!

Thank you! However, how do I access it in the format that you posted? 
 

 

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feb1991blizzard Maestro

feb1991blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Posted
2 minutes ago, BalderstoneNick said:

Was it 2010 or 2009 (or other notable cold spell) where the op picked it up at t384 and amazingly ran with it all the way until t00. Up to t144-168 the ensembles were  all over the place like the Benny hill theme tune. 

Surely because it has a higher res it should be more accurate for the 4-8 day period?

 

you seriously telling me it was not signposted on the ensembles suites at all???    The reason there are 51 and 30 member suites are to allow for the lower resolution and that some members will pump out total bilge.

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IDO Maestro

IDO

Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill
Posted
27 minutes ago, Vikos said:

I am not sure, I can be something different. I read about it some time (years) ago. Can also be the density of data after that timemark. But I know that there is something after +240h in the GFS modelling. I will search for it and PN you

If you look at the dieoff graphs (top right) we can see that over time verification falls at a greater rate so after d10 the ops become unreliable:

cordieoff_HGT_P500_G2NHX.thumb.png.4c14b101a862dab51e399c7efee43c08.png

That is why I tend to use means and clusters beyond that point. By d16 the gfs op would be about 0.2 verification, the gem probably worse (good up to d6 but worse than gfs after).

JFF, d13 gefs> gens_panel_nwz9.png

The main issue remains, the upper air axis of cold:

gensnh-31-0-336.thumb.png.5d656d08bd9bc988b1d7d03ccec2802a.png

 As per the winter so far, the UK is feeding off the scraps and unless we get an easterly, we may face the SW'ly regime the Met mentioned as a possible signal for this type of SSWE; viz that Greenland block with a westerly-flow-undercut (as per gfs op); is not going to do it for many of us. The usual caveats but worthy of discussion as this is a consistent theme within the gfs model!

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Mike Poole Maestro

Mike Poole

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
Posted

ECM T120

156144B0-45F2-45F5-8FEE-15E499E06B96.thumb.png.566292a4aca5a767b19b88f89db02cc2.png

Well, it is different!  

Some variability on the other models at same time:

9664428D-28F7-4F6F-B6D9-9FF57BB45068.thumb.gif.06eb6175a7fbcf4899b87c65efdf861f.gif4B3786B5-4DAE-4318-93B1-849D8A47D245.thumb.png.359d634c6fd9e8bfb486839e6507f866.png588DA30D-341D-457D-B7B4-15536E1586D5.thumb.png.e78af2531ea8966de77537e0e3f37af8.png9C5327E9-1BED-4B8F-84E6-B2230F3E1455.thumb.png.95d352fee0ad3396380a0751f436b0bc.png

ECM op closest to GEM and then some.  Scandi high instead maybe?  So much uncertainty. 

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Griff Veteran

Griff

Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
Posted
1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

image.thumb.png.b2ab3bc290f705dd600d09f3019a6f09.png

120...

Hmmmm, not sure about that...

 

Seems to be sticking to its guns, which I mentioned earlier as being out on its own  

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Mike Poole Maestro

Mike Poole

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
Posted
Just now, northwestsnow said:

image.thumb.png.b2ab3bc290f705dd600d09f3019a6f09.png

120...

Hmmmm, not sure about that...

 

Agreed, the holy grail from here with the deep cold situated where it is, is Greenland high link up with the Arctic high feature as shown by GFS 12z.  Any high lat blocking further east risks shutting off the route for that deep cold to get to our shores.  We want a Greenland block not a Scandi one this time.  

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Frostbite1980 Community Regular

Frostbite1980

Posted
  • Location: Swineshead, Boston, Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Swineshead, Boston, Lincolnshire
Posted
5 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

image.thumb.png.b2ab3bc290f705dd600d09f3019a6f09.png

120...

Hmmmm, not sure about that...

 

It seems like a flip flop between heights rising in greenie or heights rising in scandi I will take either as long as the pattern doesn't go flat and at the moment that doesn't seem likely 

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That ECM Maestro

That ECM

Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
Posted

I’m liking this. See where it goes but 2 areas of interest for me. Ne and low out west.

1C031619-18D4-4EDF-8B00-37DCB7D6873C.png

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IDO Maestro

IDO

Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill
Posted
3 minutes ago, Griff said:

Could be interesting... Looks like it might somehow bring cold from the east... 

Remember the bigger picture, low heights dropping as they move from Asia to Scandi:

2112948792_ink(3).thumb.png.42e3a34c4e31eacd5ab4acb5e162e7f6.png

Due post-d7 in the last few runs.

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Frostbite1980 Community Regular

Frostbite1980

Posted
  • Location: Swineshead, Boston, Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Swineshead, Boston, Lincolnshire
Posted (edited)
4 minutes ago, CSC said:

There’s the potential for an easterly developing at just day 7. Come on ECM!

A9442D4D-CBF3-43CA-8E7F-1D087B0BA277.jpeg

No chance of the high moving in that direction while there is a low over Iceland but could migrate to scandi if we ask nicely

Edited by Frostbite1980
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Mike Poole Maestro

Mike Poole

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
Posted

ECM T144

FA3C87CE-6C82-4F3B-BA1C-A22EB64892AF.thumb.png.a39860136554b9c4789916cef38a52ff.png

It is not impossible that this could link with the Arctic high and push the cold our way.  Interesting run this, and different to ones I’ve watched recently.  

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