Model output discussion - cold spell approaching?

[Vikos]

Gateopener?

[Singularity]

1 minute ago, Vikos said:

Gateopener?

If that deep low over central Canada can draw the one to its east back west, this run may have a recovery route.

Overall though, not the most encouraging 06z runs, with another northward shift of the polar boundary in the mid-range.

[sunnijim]

A rare post from me in the mod thread.

Viewing this mornings output with glass half full,I wonder if the intensification of the trough might not be such a bad thing?

We seem to be heading in a similar direction to the post Christmas cold spell and the Storm Bella of Boxing day.

The reason I find for some optimism is the potential response 'down the line' to a Deep Low.

Where we had the models toughting a slack trough meandering near our shores around the 20th for a few days and none of the bitter air we are all dreaming of, now we 'might' see a favorable build of pressure in response to the passing of the deeper trough?

Post Christmas the build of pressure to our East dragged up modified Easterly air via the Med, perhaps a repeat pattern may emerge later in January without the lack of modification to our cold air source.

 

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Again, getting too hung up on runs past 120hrs. The GFS and ECM are struggling to get to grips with this front and possible transient snow event at less than 48 hours away. 

Lets take things one event at a time. If they can’t make their minds up with this up coming front, then what hope can we have going into next week?! 

[Paul_1978]

1 hour ago, That ECM said:

 

?

Can we have some supporting words around this to explain what you mean by the emoji? Many thanks!

[Jason M]

GFS 186 looks very similar indeed to 192 ECM and shows agreement with its previous run.

Worth waiting until tonight, but sadly it looks like last nights pub run was a rogue one. Odd really, as it had agreement within its ensemble suite. 

 

[mountain shadow]

1 minute ago, Paul_1978 said:

?

Can we have some supporting words around this to explain what you mean by the emoji? Many thanks!

It means the models are struggling. The lighter areas show where the models cannot agree and you can see there are lots of them.

[Mucka]

GFSp doesn't blow up the low when it phases with the trough which means we would get wrap around "cold" and draw the cold feed in quicker.

Still delayed and watered down but better than what is on off elsewhere

 

[PiscesStar]

3 minutes ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

Again, getting too hung up on runs past 120hrs. The GFS and ECM are struggling to get to grips with this front and possible transient snow event at less than 48 hours away. 

Totally agree the effect are still being felt through the downwelling  take things one event at a time. If they can’t make their minds up with this up coming front, then what hope can we have going into next week?! 

 

[MKN]

4 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Such a shame the cold spell that was forecasted for next week has been thrown out the window potentially!!!i did warn the peeps on here!!!!ah well short term prospects for snow still to focus on!!

I wouldn't worry to much the changes are quite drastic compared to outputs just 12 hours ago. Until they are shown repeatedly it cant be considered reliable. +72 onwards is fi imo right now. 

[swfc]

Looking at the gfs 6z at the 190 hr mark I think flooding may be an issue

[Battleground Snow]

I definitely still think the greenland / Arctic high has legs in it, we have just lost the strong push from Atlantic sector which accelerated the process..  maybe a 2-4 day delay?

 

Edited January 13, 2021 by Battleground Snow

[chris55]

6z is painfully slow at edging the pattern south! Eventually by day 10 the boundary line has come south enough to allow for a good snow event in the heart of the UK.

Lets hope the slow game sets us up for a cold last week of Jan eh......and into Feb.....(yes it'll be summer in a minute.)

[Notty]

HP trying to build from the Pacific to Scandi. Arctic High has effectively gone. Would that encourage HP over Scandi?

[I remember Atlantic 252]

better than the 00, but safe to say trends are to push the cold air back, now looks like late next week, rather than Tue/Wed

[IDO]

For the south up till d9 pretty much rubbish, wet and cool at times with zero hope of snow. d9:

Even on this run the two snow events on the 0z for further north are struggling. The trend is poor. It is likely that in a closed system like this, the models got the downstream wrong for the cold flow and also were too progressive with the fronts crossing in the next few days. These slowing have had a knock on effect upstream and the phasing has been changed, for the worse in this case.

Let us see where it goes post-d10 as this is still up for grabs?

[Weathizard]

13 minutes ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

Again, getting too hung up on runs past 120hrs. The GFS and ECM are struggling to get to grips with this front and possible transient snow event at less than 48 hours away. 

Lets take things one event at a time. If they can’t make their minds up with this up coming front, then what hope can we have going into next week?! 

It’s overall pattern, I’ve often argued the same thing but in this case, if we reach the point with one strong rounded low over us whilst the other one meanders across and phases with it, it’s basically game over for any proper cold being tapped into.

The snow event is a small movement in the grand scheme of the output.

[Tim Bland]

Day 10 00z Vs 06z big improvement. IMO likely we will see a halfway house between nirvana of yesterday and disparaging of this morning. 

[mountain shadow]

The worst possible west based -NAO you can imagine. This was a period I expected us to be in a cold spell. Looks like a big delay.

[ALL ABOARD]

I wonder wether the second warming is flushing down any further westerlies just at the wrong time causing the lows to have a little more strength crossing the Atlantic? 

 

[Tim Bland]

2 minutes ago, IDO said:

For the south up till d9 pretty much rubbish, wet and cool at times with zero hope of snow. d9:

Even on this run the two snow events on the 0z for further north are struggling. The trend is poor. It is likely that in a closed system like this, the models got the downstream wrong for the cold flow and also were too progressive with the fronts crossing in the next few days. These slowing have had a knock on effect upstream and the phasing has been changed, for the worse in this case.

Let us see where it goes post-d10 as this is still up for grabs?

Zero chance of snow in the south

Edited January 13, 2021 by Tim Bland

[IDO]

1 minute ago, Tim Bland said:

Zero chance of snow in the south

That is the gfsP and low-res so good luck with that landing? 

[Gustywind]

1 minute ago, IDO said:

That is the gfsP and low-res so good luck with that landing? 

Think it’s perfectly feasible though that as we get closer we see the pattern edge further south, and systems slightly weaker. This then brings snow more into play for parts of the U.K. next week (North always favoured). The models may have overreacted to the new signal they’ve picked up on.

[Paul]

Just a reminder, please keep it to discussion around the specifics of the model output in this thread. For more generalised moans, ramps and chat, please head over to the chat thread, where a few recent posts have also just been moved to:

We're trying to be a bit stricter on this today, as there's a lot of people posting and both threads are active, so it'll be better for everyone if this one is as on topic as possible. 

[mountain shadow]

At least the para is better