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Model output discussion - cold spell approaching?

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Paul
Message added by Paul,

Please only use this thread to comment specifically about the model output. If you want to have a moan, ramp or to chat more generally about the models, the weather and so on, please use the winter chat and moans thread. 

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Jason H Enthusiast

Jason H

Posted
  • Location: Bexleyheath (south), Kent
  • Location: Bexleyheath (south), Kent
Posted

These latest charts seem to tie in with the Met Office assessment of winds from Scandinavia in the mid term. Still the best in the business. Encouraging to see the GFS operational follow suit. As always, the ensembles and the EPS will give us more of an idea for the direction of travel.

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Cold Winter Night Accomplished

Cold Winter Night

Posted
  • Location: Near Gouda, Holland. 6m Below Sea Level.
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, snow, ice. Very hot or very cold.
  • Location: Near Gouda, Holland. 6m Below Sea Level.
Posted
2 minutes ago, IDO said:

We are chasing post-d10 charts again and we never seem to land at anything other than fleeting chances of transient snow, ergo tomorrow and Saturday, for some!

Anyway if the 12z is right, the post-d10 evolution is much cleaner with less chance of spoilers than the expected regime in the next 10-days. That may be what we will have to wait for (classic Atlantic and Pacific combo ridges)?

gfsnh-0-264.thumb.png.47d2936ccf6ddb2ed62fe4edfc06e5cc.png

So, glass half-full hat on; hopefully this is not just another random algorithmic phantom run by gfs? I know from previous experience that when the models spot a new chase, they go all in, and downgrades are inevitable. 

The changes that led to this did not happen post day 10 though.
At +120h already you see how the low over Newfoundland undercuts the Atlantic heights, forcing WAA to occur more to the East.
UKMO did something kind of similar, although the undercut is stronger there.

And about downgrades: I'd rather have a 1947 spell modelled at 240h that gets watered down to a 2021 version, than a 2021 version at 240h downgraded to a 2020 version...

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ICE COLD Maestro

ICE COLD

Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW AND FREEZING TEMPS
  • Location: Hertfordshire
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Posted

OMG WHAT DRAMA . FROM WHERE WE WERE THIS MORNING. IM SO MUCH HAPPIER. 
 

UKMO so much better 

GFS 12z so much better 

GEM 12z around bout the same 

(happy face) until the ECM wipes it of my face . 

76A49D32-F250-4870-AA52-B577BB790291.png

F7F90C47-4396-4B14-B95C-1CE8AD42D0E5.png

A4DD6B1D-BB66-4C86-8BC2-A1052BBAF3B7.png

86E78C45-5E99-4748-B420-B8A72E0A5D76.gif

B3F15BCE-8C51-44BD-95B6-05B4068903CE.png

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Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
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Posted

T303 and we have the perfect channel-runner, Jackpot, Bingo, bullseye... Bernie, the bolt? 

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

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Jason M Experienced

Jason M

Posted
  • Location: South Essex
  • Location: South Essex
Posted

GFS opp will be a mild outlier out to day 10 having just scrolled through at day 7. Ensembles are much colder than the opp. Control does go more with the opp so it can't be ignored but a big change in the short ensembles on the 12Z suite. much colder!

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Griff Veteran

Griff

Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
Posted

I'm wondering what the ECM will do next after latest gem, still rolling out. 

I'd say this might have some truth to it, and what might follow? 

 

gemnh-0-198.png

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ItNeverSnowsInWindsor Experienced

ItNeverSnowsInWindsor

Posted
  • Location: Windsor
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and cold
  • Location: Windsor
Posted
1 minute ago, Jason H said:

These latest charts seem to tie in with the Met Office assessment of winds from Scandinavia in the mid term. Still the best in the business. Encouraging to see the GFS operational follow suit. As always, the ensembles and the EPS will give us more of an idea for the direction of travel.

I think they’ll get watered down to NW’ or N’ at best as soon as shortwaves appear to the West of Norway nearer the time. Seen it time after time this winter so far.

Any professionals care to explain why such persistence of the low heights there ?

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Ice Day Veteran

Ice Day

Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
Posted

The Mean is quite an improvement vs the 6z at 168.

A small step forward and maybe we've stopped the rot from this mornings rubbish?

 

Screenshot_20210113-165147_Meteociel.jpg

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Hammer50 Contributor

Hammer50

Posted
  • Location: Braintree essex
  • Weather Preferences: Anything exciting.
  • Location: Braintree essex
Posted

It’s no use of commenting on models so far out 72 hours might even be to soon it could all go down to 24 hours the way they keep flip flopping.

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Djdazzle Veteran

Djdazzle

Posted
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
Posted

I can imagine the ECM giving one of “those” runs later!

I am quite optimistic that we may have got things back on track. See, I’m not a “doomongerer!”

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northwestsnow Maestro

northwestsnow

Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
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Posted

Sean siberian blast is probably right.

I do get a tad bit polar , I'm sorry guys.

Anyway, I'm going to take a back seat as this drama unfolds...

I'm back to saying come ON ecm !!

Hopefully as many as possible see some snow soon...

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Ali1977 Maestro

Ali1977

Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
Posted (edited)

Day 8 mean much better, I’m confident on a good ECM after the UKMO too.

 

Top image latest run, and back in a Northerly flow and with better heights over Greenland !! 

29FA3DA5-14E9-4E6E-BA92-C947AC20AC96.png

F3FC6E6C-F79D-4508-B7D9-50A5E7EC9DD3.png

Edited by Ali1977
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Battleground Snow Maestro

Battleground Snow

Posted
  • Location: Coventry
  • Location: Coventry
Posted
1 minute ago, Griff said:

I'm wondering what the ECM will do next after latest gem, still rolling out. 

I'd say this might have some truth to it, and what might follow? 

gemnh-0-198.png

Does anyone know why gem and ECM seem closely aligned most runs, something to do with programming I imagine?

I was surprised the met office didn't adjust cold from Scandinavia text earlier based on the 00z runs, probably a lesson for us not to knee jerk after one set of model runs

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Mike Poole Maestro

Mike Poole

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
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Posted

GEM is an absolute cracker, T222:

70DF0865-BD3D-4F48-A17F-3CE86C68BB77.thumb.png.cc23aa70a6d749a4a889bfa72454a414.pngC4DE0F0D-E9E4-4890-A94A-61218DD3B54F.thumb.png.cdb563605e1d87bfeefd993b4f6d7d70.png

This model has shown some consistency in the run up to this, when the others have been all over the place, sure there have been the odd poor run, but it is possible that the model is really on to something too.

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Youcan'tbecirrus Apprentice

Youcan'tbecirrus

Posted
  • Location: Canvey Island
  • Location: Canvey Island
Posted
7 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:

Its like deja vu on here!

One minute winters off then its on then its off.

At what point are people going to realise the models cant model further than probably 96 hours in a ssw?

More emotions than a bi polar man on bi polar street in the district of bi polar.

Stick to the means and and try not to proclaim a way forward.

Everything is ticking along nicely.

Listen to Mr Holmes compare 0z with 0z 12z with 12z etc

I leave all of this to those who know far more than me but I have always known that until the models get to something like t72 then it's best not to think anything is certain. My rule of thumb is also not to take anything for granted until headed chaps such as Mr Holmes, Bluearmy and a few others are on board.       

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Backtrack Accomplished

Backtrack

Posted
  • Location: Runcorn, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy winters, hot, sunny springs and summers.
  • Location: Runcorn, Cheshire
Posted
35 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

And there she is upgrade 

B29A6F8B-5154-419C-898E-E61D5932D422.png

Isn't this what the GFS 18z was suggesting several days ago, when the forum went into insane ramp mode, only for it to get dismissed? 

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Mike Poole Maestro

Mike Poole

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
Posted
1 minute ago, Arrows1986 said:

That nasty low doent  lol prob push it all away lol

No it won’t it is on the other side of an omega block!

It is so much easier to see these things if you look at the NH view on meteociel in winter.

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IDO Maestro

IDO

Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill
Posted

The d8 gefs similar to the 06z with the main cluster mimicking the 06z op, a small cluster supports the op at the same time frame:

gens_panel_iwa0.png

Hopefully it is not gfs randomness and we see this as a path forward in line with the 12z but atm it is not obvious?

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Day_9 Enthusiast

Day_9

Posted
  • Location: Cardiff
  • Weather Preferences: Day 10
  • Location: Cardiff
Posted

Temperature drop imminent.  A much more organised set here.  Lets get that little hump under the line and outlook is back as it overwhelmingly has been all winter- cold.  And it has been cold.

E6DD45DE-4259-416C-9797-BD7389A0E660.jpeg

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Ali1977 Maestro

Ali1977

Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Popular Post
Posted (edited)
6 minutes ago, Backtrack said:

Isn't this what the GFS 18z was suggesting several days ago, when the forum went into insane ramp mode, only for it to get dismissed? 

Yep, can’t beat chasing medium to FI charts!! Who needs ones that verify !!

Plenty of background signals pointing to a cold spell, I’m just enjoying the ride!! 

What most won’t realise is that I don’t actually live in the U.K., I’m in Cyprus with work.  I just enjoy people enjoying the cold winter weather, as I do!!

Wait till next winter when I’m living in the Cotswolds

Edited by Ali1977
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