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Model output discussion - cold spell approaching?

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Paul
Message added by Paul,

Please only use this thread to comment specifically about the model output. If you want to have a moan, ramp or to chat more generally about the models, the weather and so on, please use the winter chat and moans thread. 

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Cloud 10 Veteran

Cloud 10

Posted
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl
Posted

ECM 12z 96hrs prediction for 17th Jan vs. its output from 3 days ago shows the model volatility nicely.

 

ECM1-96.thumb.GIF.98e094639d5e0e463264a18bb886d4ca.GIFECM1-168.thumb.GIF.de4146b4b1c608778c341ac169e3d65a.GIF

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sheikhy Maestro

sheikhy

Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester
Posted
4 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

WOW talk about a shift south!! ECM has snow much further south at breakfast time and it’s cleared all by lunchtime ?! 

018C6B7B-557A-4CFC-8807-57E48CF3E1D4.jpeg

BA6FA277-69ED-4A81-8A27-D3C8D87C0E85.jpeg

89EA83A5-178A-4B73-8853-42E0B655AECF.jpeg

8F4B005D-4146-442A-B4E2-F6816B1956CD.jpeg

BA921246-EC19-45AA-B1BA-198DCD2E9041.jpeg

Totally against all other models but i will take that from a midland persepctive!!!

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Tim Bland Maestro

Tim Bland

Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
Posted

ECM has a some snow in the south East sat but generally makes little of anything wintry, unlike Aperge and UKV. Has anyone seen latest UKV for tomorrow and Sat? 

C849A3BB-792C-4703-A128-18B14EF9F539.jpeg

EEF042D9-FDCE-4269-B52A-EA14A6C4F91F.jpeg

20CBE048-A3BF-4112-84B7-B9502D457295.jpeg

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bradymk Rising Star

bradymk

Posted
  • Location: Cardiff, Wales
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunder & Lightning, Thundersnow, Storms, Heatwave
  • Location: Cardiff, Wales
Posted
5 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

WOW talk about a shift south!! ECM has snow much further south at breakfast time and it’s cleared all by lunchtime ?! 

018C6B7B-557A-4CFC-8807-57E48CF3E1D4.jpeg

BA6FA277-69ED-4A81-8A27-D3C8D87C0E85.jpeg

89EA83A5-178A-4B73-8853-42E0B655AECF.jpeg

8F4B005D-4146-442A-B4E2-F6816B1956CD.jpeg

BA921246-EC19-45AA-B1BA-198DCD2E9041.jpeg

Looks like your weather.us has somehow changed to CST time zone Tim. So those charts times are 6 hours behind UK time ??

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Notty Community Regular

Notty

Posted
  • Location: Pontypool, 132m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Extremes
  • Location: Pontypool, 132m ASL
Posted
3 minutes ago, Griff said:

Ecm 120 vs gem

ECH1-120.gif

gemnh-0-120.png

Great consistency at 5 days out. I think I’ll drop my GFS addiction for a bit ant watch these two more closely.

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Don Maestro

Don

Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
Posted
9 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

WOW talk about a shift south!! ECM has snow much further south at breakfast time and it’s cleared all by lunchtime ?! 

 

 

89EA83A5-178A-4B73-8853-42E0B655AECF.jpeg

BA921246-EC19-45AA-B1BA-198DCD2E9041.jpeg

Close but no cigar for me on those charts, although it won't happen as shown I'm quite sure!

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Man With Beard Maestro

Man With Beard

Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
Posted
6 minutes ago, Cloud 10 said:

ECM 12z 96hrs prediction for 17th Jan vs. its output from 3 days ago shows the model volatility nicely.

 

ECM1-96.thumb.GIF.98e094639d5e0e463264a18bb886d4ca.GIFECM1-168.thumb.GIF.de4146b4b1c608778c341ac169e3d65a.GIF

Yes, where on earth did this new low come from? Underlines the slight futility in looking beyond D5 at the moment.

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Tim Bland Maestro

Tim Bland

Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
Posted
3 minutes ago, bradymk said:

Looks like your weather.us has somehow changed to CST time zone Tim. So those charts times are 6 hours behind UK time ??

Ahh..makes sense now!! Here’s the other view. Still a shift south   but starts further south around lunchtime still..

421F82D3-C424-47E2-AB8E-65E71785C878.jpeg

0FB9AF86-52DC-4612-95B7-53092AA8AE7B.jpeg

1E319F62-B9B6-4992-8EBE-442A40A9B1EE.jpeg

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Mike Poole Maestro

Mike Poole

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
Posted (edited)

ECM T144, compared with GEM:

55E900A3-8926-4DEA-B4DA-0240F2A557CD.thumb.png.57aab17526a897d332b59179096f20bf.pngB2F69282-35F3-4E5E-A788-836CDBDB8D0E.thumb.png.a6267ef22f4db9c99400192fa04b63b3.png

Just hope that low to the west of Ireland on ECM doesn’t cause issues, it doesn’t phase on the GEM.

Edited by Mike Poole
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TSNWK Maestro

TSNWK

Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
Posted
2 minutes ago, Griff said:

At 144 vs gem

ECH1-144.gif

gemnh-0-144.png

Very similar with one exeception the little out to west of Ireland is phasing on ECM on GEM there is a little gap between it and the trough over us..

 

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Griff Veteran

Griff

Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Popular Post
Posted
4 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

ECM T144, compared with GEM:

55E900A3-8926-4DEA-B4DA-0240F2A557CD.thumb.png.57aab17526a897d332b59179096f20bf.pngB2F69282-35F3-4E5E-A788-836CDBDB8D0E.thumb.png.a6267ef22f4db9c99400192fa04b63b3.png

Just hope that low to the west of Ireland on ECM doesn’t cause issues, it doesn’t phase on the GEM.

 

1 minute ago, TSNWK said:

Very similar with one exeception the little out to west of Ireland is phasing on ECM on GEM there is a little gap between it and the trough over us..

 

This is how this thread works at it best. Thank you. Excellent way of learning

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Griff Veteran

Griff

Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
Posted
5 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

ECM T144, compared with GEM:

55E900A3-8926-4DEA-B4DA-0240F2A557CD.thumb.png.57aab17526a897d332b59179096f20bf.pngB2F69282-35F3-4E5E-A788-836CDBDB8D0E.thumb.png.a6267ef22f4db9c99400192fa04b63b3.png

Just hope that low to the west of Ireland on ECM doesn’t cause issues, it doesn’t phase on the GEM.

 

2 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

Very similar with one exeception the little out to west of Ireland is phasing on ECM on GEM there is a little gap between it and the trough over us..

 

Does this count as getting away with it ?‍♂️ 

ECH1-168.gif

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MATTWOLVES 3 Maestro

MATTWOLVES 3

Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
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Posted (edited)

Things again are looking up... Next week could be interesting to say the least.. The models are really struggling with what's going on.. Matt H just pointed this out on twitter, and he's so right, the models are normally accustomed to predicting a flat West to East Zonal pattern.. And Zonal couldn't be further from the truth.. This is a great period of model watching, and trust me folks don't get to upset if the mornings runs are poor, cause the odds are they will be improved come the evening again... Come on Eileen... I mean my son

gens-2-0-252.png

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gens-26-1-252.png

gens-11-1-192.png

gens-13-1-324.png

gens-13-0-324.png

tenor-3.gif

Edit.... Sorry Griff, always difficult to lose a long term pet.. A great companion also, and I'm sure she would have been well looked after by you, cause I get the impression your a very likeable kind of bloke... All the best mate. 

Edited by MATTWOLVES
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weathermadbarnsleylad Aficionado

weathermadbarnsleylad

Posted
  • Location: Kendray,Barnsley,God's county.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow freezing fog heatwave thunderstorm
  • Location: Kendray,Barnsley,God's county.
Posted
3 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

Very similar with one exeception the little out to west of Ireland is phasing on ECM on GEM there is a little gap between it and the trough over us..

 

Not phased at 168 looking likely to follow the gfs 12z

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sheikhy Maestro

sheikhy

Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester
Posted
7 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Ahh..makes sense now!! Here’s the other view. Still a shift south   but starts further south around lunchtime still..

421F82D3-C424-47E2-AB8E-65E71785C878.jpeg

0FB9AF86-52DC-4612-95B7-53092AA8AE7B.jpeg

1E319F62-B9B6-4992-8EBE-442A40A9B1EE.jpeg

Tim  there is no denying ecm has been playin catch up with this snow event!its gone towards gfs para full on and compared to this morning run its way further west and higher snow accumulations!!

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I remember Atlantic 252 Maestro

I remember Atlantic 252

Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
Posted
1 minute ago, sheikhy said:

Tim  there is no denying ecm has been playin catch up with this snow event!its gone towards gfs para full on and compared to this morning run its way further west and higher snow accumulations!!

FAX further west than most models

fax24s.gif?1

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TSNWK Maestro

TSNWK

Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
Posted
2 minutes ago, Griff said:

 

Does this count as getting away with it ?‍♂️ 

ECH1-168.gif

It’s better than I was expecting.. if I recall yesterday ukm had phased at 120 and then unphased at 144 raising a few eyebrows..this looks like a similar unphasing episode.. is that even possible? Or maybe two become one...  

and here’s hoping for a spicy 192

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topo Enthusiast

topo

Posted
  • Location: Arendal, Norway
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, snow and more snow!
  • Location: Arendal, Norway
Posted

Impressed again by ECM 192 smashing all ensembles to the warmest.

Incredible!

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SLEETY Veteran

SLEETY

Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
Posted

Poor ecm, if that low had dropped south it would have allowed the bitter uppers from scandi to move towards us instead at 192 it erodes the cold uppers over scandi,bit suspect this run looks now. 

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ALL ABOARD Rising Star

ALL ABOARD

Posted
  • Location: Neath Valleys, South Wales 109m asl
  • Location: Neath Valleys, South Wales 109m asl
Posted

There's still to much energy and westerly momentum. 

Now the models could be over playing this as we've seen with the low thats going to bring snow to some but the modeling of the large peice ov PV to drop into Europe and back west is fading with every run. 

Fingers crossed for some upgrades soon. 

Poor ECM... 

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