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Model output discussion - cold spell approaching?

Blessed Weather
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Paul
Message added by Paul,

Please only use this thread to comment specifically about the model output. If you want to have a moan, ramp or to chat more generally about the models, the weather and so on, please use the winter chat and moans thread. 

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weatherguy Aficionado

weatherguy

Posted
  • Location: Liverpool - 23m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snowy winters and hot, sunny summers!
  • Location: Liverpool - 23m ASL
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Posted

Seen it countless times over the years that whenever there has been a SSW (or any real disruption to the SPV), the models go a bit haywire with regards to the placement of the TPV lobes.  I haven't posted yet this winter though I have been lurking...Seems to me there was a major adjustment west of the pattern this morning, and now there has been a major adjustment east.  This chaos is to be expected.  

image.thumb.png.edb661c4e05347f8b2acc87f784bc54a.png

COULD be a sinker here at 240h but it's pretty irrelevant at such a timeframe.  Main takeaway is we have a lovely NH profile for the medium term and, prior to that, we have a couple of shots of snow for the UK, with the main event in the short-term yet to be decided.

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Griff Veteran

Griff

Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
Posted
1 minute ago, Hotspur62 said:

Look how poor those uppers are in central northern Scandinavia!!couple of days ago they were -16 to -20 now they are 0 to -4!!!

Just for fun, this would be of no interest? 

 

gfsnh-1-252.png

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Ali1977 Maestro

Ali1977

Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
Posted (edited)
4 minutes ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

This post removed

How about a North Easterly, because it’s coming!! With snow!!

E471D907-0BA6-434A-9E4F-4DDC8E9DA3A3.png

7AD3017C-DBF2-4F83-BC3A-18154F08AC84.png

Edited by Blessed Weather
Post in quote box deleted.
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Daniel* Maestro

Daniel*

Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
Posted (edited)
2 minutes ago, topo said:

Oh lord! What a rubbish

Look at these 850s in Mid Sweden by the 21th.

Even the most extreme warm ensembles did not have so high 850s..

It's a joke.. Oh and yes promises again after 240hr... Not gonna happen.

Still ends up doing same thing Scandi in freezer.

D0F6D826-6916-482C-BCAB-A268EC97037C.thumb.png.25c1f0de9e275de1bf9bb19370f1f2e1.png

Edited by Daniel*
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northwestsnow Maestro

northwestsnow

Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
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Posted

And so a swing back to a colder outlook this evening ...

I would suggest there are going to be lots of twists and turns over the next 48 hours...

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Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Posted
7 minutes ago, Youcan'tbecirrus said:

Don't tell me....it's Day 10. 

You must be psychic... even if only marginally?:drunk-emoji:

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

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swfc Veteran

swfc

Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
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Posted

Well the 12z has made me smile. Whether it's reliable or not I don't care today. See where it sits in the ensembles. Onwards and upwards friends

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mushymanrob Maestro

mushymanrob

Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby
Posted
1 hour ago, That ECM said:

Huge difference to the south not as big for the north. West for the south nw for the north. Now 2010 was much more from north east.

 

1 hour ago, DavidS said:

Looks similar to me. Trough not as deep

 

1 hour ago, Phil Blake said:

Subtle differences in the flow over the UK? Today is north going westerly over the UK. 2010 is north north east going westerly south of the UK? If I'm reading it right that is

 

43 minutes ago, chris55 said:

Similar. However we have the low pressure to the south of the high this time and slightly less cold air incoming from the north/north east (at least initially) but this is once again suggesting a high risk of boundary frontal snowfall somewhere in the UK. Some places could get buried while others see rain.

Yep, i said make of it what you will.... i wouldnt call it a "huge" difference though...

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Djdazzle Veteran

Djdazzle

Posted
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
Posted
Just now, northwestsnow said:

And so a swing back to a colder outlook this evening ...

I would suggest there are going to be lots of twists and turns over the next 48 hours...

Yes, and it’s that reason that fussing about uppers a week away is futile.

We could be looking at very cold runs again soon, and not in deep FI. Or we could flip back to the poor runs of this morning.

What will be, will be.

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Nick F Maestro

Nick F

Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
Posted

I think the 12z GFS may have gone a bit too extreme with the amplification of the trough down and deep across Europe and into N Africa at day 10, can't imagine there would be much support for that. Which makes you wonder is it being too OTT with Atlantic amplification upstream. Such a change from previous runs. 

The 12z PARA looks quite different and not worth a look at if you want cold more than a few days!

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Griff Veteran

Griff

Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
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Posted

My eldest cat was put to sleep earlier, the model outlook went the same way over night, so given this is the model thread, I'm unashamedly loving this FI. Moaners to the other thread or regionals please. 

gfsnh-0-282.png

gfsnh-1-282.png

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Ali1977 Maestro

Ali1977

Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
Posted (edited)
1 minute ago, swfc said:

Well the 12z has made me smile. Whether it's reliable or not I don't care today. See where it sits in the ensembles. Onwards and upwards friends

Agreed, can’t trust this run but that NH is nice to see. Surface night temps around -15c I’d say, over snow fields

C4236F8B-B59D-4D45-B826-E7C1C7F319BE.png

Edited by Ali1977
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Jason H Enthusiast

Jason H

Posted
  • Location: Bexleyheath (south), Kent
  • Location: Bexleyheath (south), Kent
Posted
3 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

This is a very nice evolution from GFS 12Z cut off high in 3...2....1...

A725712C-83A0-4A39-B6B3-17DA5020CD5F.thumb.png.74174db0545e961d8ee97d3c0a7b5988.png

No worries about Iberian heights there. All change again in the mid-term. Not to be trusted at the best of times. Short term changes in the output this evening swing the pendulum back to cold. Still lots to play for. Further output required. 

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IDO Maestro

IDO

Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill
Posted

We are chasing post-d10 charts again and we never seem to land at anything other than fleeting chances of transient snow, ergo tomorrow and Saturday, for some!

Anyway if the 12z is right, the post-d10 evolution is much cleaner with less chance of spoilers than the expected regime in the next 10-days. That may be what we will have to wait for (classic Atlantic and Pacific combo ridges)?

gfsnh-0-264.thumb.png.47d2936ccf6ddb2ed62fe4edfc06e5cc.png

So, glass half-full hat on; hopefully this is not just another random algorithmic phantom run by gfs? I know from previous experience that when the models spot a new chase, they go all in, and downgrades are inevitable. 

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weathermadbarnsleylad Aficionado

weathermadbarnsleylad

Posted
  • Location: Kendray,Barnsley,God's county.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow freezing fog heatwave thunderstorm
  • Location: Kendray,Barnsley,God's county.
Posted

I still think nothing is set. 2/3 days ahead is F I for me. Im still expecting cold to head towartds the uk from an easterly direction before months out. It always has been projected got end of month anyway. Some good and bad output for coldies is expected. 

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Matt H Accomplished

Matt H

Posted
  • Location: Cambridge
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snow, heat, sunshine and thunderstorms. Anything severe.
  • Location: Cambridge
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Posted

Watching ‘The Chase’ on TV whilst these charts are currently rolling out on the GFS is fairly ironic.

503720FD-8035-47E7-939A-3E556AD38CF2.thumb.png.149671effdab33e769f376840ac5be48.png84A3365E-5D21-4D3C-9D99-FEE58AA20F6E.thumb.png.541fba1ab7869967d6798a99953c7743.png

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Ali1977 Maestro

Ali1977

Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
Posted

Could be the FI chart of the year coming up, all just for fun at this stage!!

5B0FFC41-C99D-46F1-AA7C-F24AC5C4BFF7.png

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Nick F Maestro

Nick F

Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
Posted

I think most would be rather happy if the 12z GFS op came off, winds eventually turn NEly and we tap into deep cold. BUT, seems to good to be likely for now, given the trauma of the 00z and 06z runs. Will have to see where it sits in the ENS spread.

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Jason M Experienced

Jason M

Posted
  • Location: South Essex
  • Location: South Essex
Posted

LOL at the GFS. 10 days away as ever.

One positive thing though is that by day 6 the GEFS are all over the place and are mostly better than the opp. Clearly the opp has to be given more respect at shorter timescales but the GEFS are making much more of heights around Greenland than we have seen thus far. 

 

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Blessed Weather Maestro

Blessed Weather

Posted
  • Location: Hadleigh, Suffolk
  • Weather Preferences: An Alpine climate - snowy winters and sunny summers
  • Location: Hadleigh, Suffolk
  • Author
Posted

Just a gentle reminder folks - please report posts that you consider might be off-topic or trolling and we will deal with it. Everyone responding to it just gives the moderating team even more work and derails the thread. Thank you.

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Scott Ingham Veteran

Scott Ingham

Posted
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene
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Posted

Its like deja vu on here!

One minute winters off then its on then its off.

At what point are people going to realise the models cant model further than probably 96 hours in a ssw?

More emotions than a bi polar man on bi polar street in the district of bi polar.

Stick to the means and and try not to proclaim a way forward.

Everything is ticking along nicely.

Listen to Mr Holmes compare 0z with 0z 12z with 12z etc

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