Model output discussion 24/01/21

[Allseasons-Si]

The gfs is just tosh this evening and it was wrong early on against all the other models,it's like dancing on ice without the shakes but it's partner(the parra) skates on,some love there lol

as for the parra,it looks good with that height rise to the north and matches the EPS.

 

not far off an easterly there.

[nick sussex]

The outputs are both immensely frustrating but compulsive viewing for model anoraks .

The early changes with those southwards corrections , is there any more mileage there ? 

Then for the weekend is that low really just going to shoot eastwards on steroids  , what happens to the much talked about spoiler shortwave ?

Is the MJO finally going to help or is it mutton dressed as lamb ?

So lots to keep an eye on , hopefully we can finally see some deeper cold and with it some snow to areas that have missed out so far .

[Griff]

2 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

The gfs is just tosh this evening and it was wrong early on against all the other models,it's like dancing on ice without the shakes but it's partner(the parra) skates on,some love there lol

as for the parra,it looks good with that height rise to the north and matches the EPS.

 

not far off an easterly there.

Not eye candi spectacular but possibly more plausible? 

I like!

[Allseasons-Si]

Low dropping down from the NW in to cold air on the parra.

all JFF at this range but the parra has left the gfs packing it's skates.

Edited January 25, 2021 by Allseasons-si

[Griff]

When you remember gem had this at 240

Vaguely similar to para (if you squint a bit ) 

Edited January 25, 2021 by Griff

[mountain shadow]

The reality is things are looking very very wet again in the next ten days at least with the upper trough parked over us.

Higher parts of Scotland could see lots of snow.

For the rest of us, it's a case of seeing where the trough goes.

[MJB]

Sometimes don't you just think chart watching is a waste of time lol

[blizzard81]

The 96 & 120 fax charts look good to me. 

[blizzard81]

10 minutes ago, MJB said:

Sometimes don't you just think chart watching is a waste of time lol

All the time.... Apart from once or twice a decade. I'm mad though

[feb1991blizzard]

2 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

The 96 & 120 fax charts look good to me. 

120 - 528 line parked in the North sea though.

[blizzard81]

Just now, feb1991blizzard said:

120 - 528 line parked in the North sea though.

It looks much more promising than the ukmo and ecm 120hr charts though. It certainly gives some hope. 

[StormyLincs]

2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

120 - 528 line parked in the North sea though.

What is the significance of the 528 line?

[feb1991blizzard]

Just now, YellowSnow said:

What is the significance of the 528 line?

its borderline for snow although a better indication can be the 129 line on the 850-1000 thicknesses.

[Stu_London]

1 minute ago, YellowSnow said:

What is the significance of the 528 line?

None really - you probably need to see where the 520 line is if you are looking for snow. Which in this case is even further away than the 528 line

[Stu_London]

Just now, feb1991blizzard said:

its borderline for snow although a better indication can be the 129 line on the 850-1000 thicknesses.

I can count on the fingers of a man with no arms how many times being on the 528 Dam line has delivered. 

[Froze were the Days]

56 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Someone needs to nuke that shortwave !  If only so the thread doesn’t have to put up with my obsession over it . I’ve been droning on about it all evening!  

Nick...you've been droning on about it?...you obviously have read a few of my posts about short waves off the coast of Norway this month. I've never seen such a regular occurrence of short waves, lobes/trough of low pressure or what ever you want to call them in the same area as this winter, as mentioned must be due to warmer sst's.  In essence low pressure in the vicinity is just keeping potential cold air further away and hindering blocking.

Just can't win, it's the equivalent in summer of an area of low pressure forming in the Bay of Biscay and staying put ahead of a spanish plume!

Edited January 25, 2021 by Froze were the Days

[StormyLincs]

3 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

its borderline for snow although a better indication can be the 129 line on the 850-1000 thicknesses.

Thanks for that info

[Daniel*]

4 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

It looks much more promising than the ukmo and ecm 120hr charts though. It certainly gives some hope. 

Am I missing something looks very similar? Maybe more blocking near Greenland.

[feb1991blizzard]

3 minutes ago, YellowSnow said:

Thanks for that info

tbh like someone said, i tend to look at 522 for guaranteed snow but anyway the point i originally was making was you ain't got much chance if the 528 is way to your East, unless you have a perfect undercut and your at high altitude.

[Stu_London]

2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

tbh like someone said, i tend to look at 522 for guaranteed snow but anyway the point i originally was making was you ain't got much chance if the 528 is way to your East, unless you have a perfect undercut and your at high altitude.

In a light aircraft perhaps. 

[StormyLincs]

2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

tbh like someone said, i tend to look at 522 for guaranteed snow but anyway the point i originally was making was you ain't got much chance if the 528 is way to your East, unless you have a perfect undercut and your at high altitude.

Well seeing as I’m nearly at sea level that 528 line is about as much use as a chocolate fire guard. I’ll go with the 522 if they ever appear.

[blizzard81]

9 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

Am I missing something looks very similar? Maybe more blocking near Greenland.

My post needs to be read in conjuction with the much improved 60 & 72hr fax charts. Now imagine how much better the updated fax charts for tomorrow might look at days 4 & 5.

[Vikos]

One day when some people will understand the system of calculating in deterministic weather models and the lack of data in mid-runs 06/18z ...

[feb1991blizzard]

15 minutes ago, Stu_London said:

In a light aircraft perhaps. 

Nope - Heavy snow - 8  inches for Birmingham around 660ft.

[Kentspur]

18z towards the end is a mild outlier as expected- atleast for my still snowless NW Kent, the trend is still downwards

Edited January 26, 2021 by Kentspur