Model output discussion 24/01/21

[Battleground Snow]

13 minutes ago, Uncertainy said:

Looks like a mean easterly later on the GEFS, would correlate with the signal on the 12z op and para. We had this signal a few days back so let’s see if it sticks on the next few runs...

Quite a signal at that range.

[Allseasons-Si]

Looking at some of the eye candy we are seeing on the models in fl are depicted to the response of the MJO passage into the western Pacific phases 6>7 which would be NW into Greenland i would of thought.

a long way to go but Feb is looking good(at this moment) for some decent cold spells but in the meantime there is interest this week and to be nailed on first

great model watching ATM and i am sure there will be more to follow

come on ECM,you are next

[Day 10]

1 hour ago, Day 10 said:

Unfortunately though, somebody in Norway will sneeze and puff just like that Spain is frozen solid!

For gods sake GFS I was joking when I said this, further north please lol.

[Ice Day]

Just had a quick scan of the GEFS for 300hrs, there's some superb options on show.  The full panel will make for some interesting reading in a few minutes:

[MJB]

2 minutes ago, Ice Day said:

Just had a quick scan of the GEFS for 300hrs, there's some superb options on show.  The full panel will make for some interesting reading in a few minutes:

Agreed some really good scenarios showing up

[Troubleatmill]

20 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

If you follow the colder runs you will see they rise eventually, just a difference in timing with the front / transition to milder. 
 

looking at the longer ensembles we would be very unlucky not to be cold in 2 weeks time. Before that we have a cold snap this weekend with some snow in the east

Thanks Tim, but not sure, they appear to have gone nuts on wetter as if someone has said 'sod it I give up, who looks at the GEM ensembles anyway' and just drawn lines

Edited January 25, 2021 by Beano

[Battleground Snow]

ECM v GFS, big difference with temps over country.

GFS ensembles can all be wrong at 72, but it's a rare

[sheikhy]

That cold is hangin on north midlands north and east on the ecm!!if this cold dense air keeps getting underestimated expect the cold air to remain across 70 percent of the country!

[nick sussex]

The ECM at T96 hrs has that spoiler shortwave west of Iceland much further to the nw compared to the GFS and its also better than the UKMO.

 

Edited January 25, 2021 by nick sussex

[Tim Bland]

Places such as the North York moors and Cumbrian fells having a very snowy end to the week...

[Daniel*]

To not hear about marginal conditions again would be music to my ears. That really is an exceptionally rare deep freeze pattern on GFS 12z spanning all of northern Eurasia it has a February 1956 look to it. 

[winterof79]

ECM has a stalling front Thursday

Edited January 25, 2021 by winterof79

[sheikhy]

1 minute ago, Tim Bland said:

Places such as the North York moors and Cumbrian fells having a very snowy end to the week...

Tim this is getting interesting again!!yeh higher chance of everything shoved further north again but the trends today are to keep the cold air further south!!!that chart above COULD look very different come thursday!!

[Tim Bland]

Low being further north on Sat could make all the difference for some....

Edited January 25, 2021 by Tim Bland

[Matt H]

ECM 12z looks great at t120!

[Allseasons-Si]

ECM,...120.

now lets see what the rest of the run does.

[northwestsnow]

Excellent ECM !!!!

Let's hope its right, NE winds at 120 !!

[I remember Atlantic 252]

3 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Tim this is getting interesting again!!yeh higher chance of everything shoved further north again but the trends today are to keep the cold air further south!!!that chart above COULD look very different come thursday!!

certainly looks better, but too mild in our locations, but not like boring GFS blasting Atlantic through, next see what EC does with Sunday's low? 06 GFS snowy, 12Z rain

[Tim Bland]

4 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Tim this is getting interesting again!!yeh higher chance of everything shoved further north again but the trends today are to keep the cold air further south!!!that chart above COULD look very different come thursday!!

Anything is possible but at the moment that snow early Thurs is very short lived and soon turns to rain. Best hope for anyone south of the Pennines is to look south at the weekend 

[TSNWK]

1 minute ago, Allseasons-si said:

ECM,...120.

now lets see what the rest of the run does.

We know.. the Atlantic blasts in!

[That ECM]

Haven’t had time to catch up but this got my attention.

[Allseasons-Si]

2 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

We know.. the Atlantic blasts in!

But would it!!!,...it hasn't happened yet

[Kentspur]

7 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Low being further north on Sat could make all the difference for some....

Oh the joy yet more rain and sleet for the Thames estuary in Kent and Essex on this precip chart we must have been evil in a previous life, still i won't be taking this chart as gospel 

[winterof79]

Big signal for heights to build to our North this pm ..........AND its at 120z.

 

 

 

Edited January 25, 2021 by winterof79

[Vikos]