Model output discussion 24/01/21

[swfc]

18 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Icon blowing up lows now . .

138 looks like another low waiting in the wings.

It's because the westerly bias showing its hand nw

[TSNWK]

12 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Icon is awful.

Next...

I think  the deal for the 12z  will be seeing subtle shifts in our favour to around 120..  at micro local level.  However something at a broader macro is giving a signal for cold to be pushed aside with an uptick from the jet around 120 onwards and once that tipping point is flipped the pattern is set.

My only glimmer is that our local trends upto around 96 introduce a tip the other way. 

[Day 10]

Another tweak south of the cold boundary.

[SLEETY]

Could be another fail from the models if we do get a proper easterly by weekend and the atlantic does not get through as they seem to think it will in earlier runs.Failed yesterday,got the track of the low wrong for a start.BBc forecasts were  also CERTAIN  that" low pressure will also push through by weekend" ,so they must be getting anxious too now,or its another hit to their credibility.

Ohh the drama,great fun watching this unfold.

[Battleground Snow]

Arpege still going for it on Thursday, further adjustments south would be welcome.

 

[MJB]

The Beeb are very confident its  bombing through , and very little mention of any snow from the fronts approaching 

[MJB]

Just now, Battleground Snow said:

Arpege still going for it on Thursday, further adjustments south would be welcome.

 

Just how good is Arpege though 

[Chertseystreamer79]

I think once the midweek lows are here they will gradually pull cold air back south as they clear out south east. 

 

How much cold and how much south? I'll go get my string. 

 

General trend is southern  shifts in the current runs if only very marginal. 

[Snowy L]

40 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

Huge difference later on at 108.... Into an Easterly 

This will excite @nick sussex

Reminds me of  January 2013. I remember the modelling of that well, and it's not good news. Basically look out your window because with such a fragile ridge the models were all over the place even just 2 or 3 days out.

[Battleground Snow]

1 minute ago, Chertseystreamer79 said:

I think once the midweek lows are here they will gradually pull cold air back south as they clear out south east. 

 

How much cold and how much south? I'll go get my string. 

 

General trend is southern  shifts in the current runs if only very marginal. 

Wouldn't take too much notice of it at that range, but certainly a possibility

[SLEETY]

ukmo easterly in at 96 hours  miles further west than 12 hours ago

[Day 10]

ICON, GFS & UKMO at 96, still much to sort out!

[sheikhy]

Ukmo further south and west as well!!!!better than gfs 12z and i thought the gfs was good!!something brewing for this week maybe!?

[MJB]

1 minute ago, SLEETY said:

ukmo easterly in at 96 hours  miles further west than 12 hours ago

Blink and you miss it though , the Atlantic is bombing through 

[SLEETY]

ukmo way too progessive at 144 hours,hopefully!

[frosty ground]

18 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Early changes on gfs 12z!!atlantic slightly further west and moved towards ecm!!not sure if it wil make a difference!

This has been the story of the last 10 days.

[Tim Bland]

Hmm sorry gang but think there is a bit of hopecasting here. Also have to add that the ECM nailed yesterday from about 5 days out. I get that some in the south east we’re disappointed, but only because the DP just went the wrong side of marginal, even the ECM showed rain east and south of London though. 

Arpege has adjusted north over the last few runs and is now similar to the ECM with some short lived snow Pennines northwards.  Next weekend we have the chance at a short cold shot with a dusting in the east,  but that looks short lived.
 

Anyone south of the Pennines hoping for snow this week (apart from an hour of sleet) will be disappointed. If you look at the ensembles they are fairly set on the pattern for the next 7 days.. 

[MJB]

Low after Low coming our way , just why is this ? I would have expected a quieter time 

[Drifter]

I just can’t understand the driving force for the low just twonking through west-east with hardly any disruption or deviation. 
 

[frosty ground]

Just now, SLEETY said:

ukmo way too progessive at 144 hours,hopefully!

Think that's a fair assessment, Look at the output and just delay what it shows by a day or so, the Atlantic will make inroads as it has done before but it will not be as quick or clean as shown now at day 5

[Allseasons-Si]

The ICON from 61-120 might please a fair few...

low stalling over N England then heads southeast with a northerly/northeasterly to follow.

Edit: peeps don't look past 120 as there will be lots of chopping and changing to come before that.

Edited January 25, 2021 by Allseasons-si

[MJB]

2 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Hmm sorry gang but think there is a bit of hopecasting here. Also have to add that the ECM nailed yesterday from about 5 days out. I get that some in the south east we’re disappointed, but only because the DP just went the wrong side of marginal, even the ECM showed rain east and south of London though. 

Arpege has adjusted north over the last few runs and is now similar to the ECM with some short lived snow Pennines northwards.  Next weekend we have the chance at a short cold shot with a dusting in the east,  but that looks short lived.
 

Anyone south of the Pennines hoping for snow this week (apart from an hour of sleet) will be disappointed. If you look at the ensembles they are fairly set on the pattern for the next 7 days.. 

I agree , only usual suspects will benefit , high level routes in England and those a lot further North 

[frosty ground]

3 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Hmm sorry gang but think there is a bit of hopecasting here. Also have to add that the ECM nailed yesterday from about 5 days out. I get that some in the south east we’re disappointed, but only because the DP just went the wrong side of marginal, even the ECM showed rain east and south of London though. 

Arpege has adjusted north over the last few runs and is now similar to the ECM with some short lived snow Pennines northwards.  Next weekend we have the chance at a short cold shot with a dusting in the east,  but that looks short lived.
 

Anyone south of the Pennines hoping for snow this week (apart from an hour of sleet) will be disappointed. If you look at the ensembles they are fairly set on the pattern for the next 7 days.. 

Not sure I would use the London Ensembles when talking about the Pennines. 

What hope casting can you see Tim?

[Allseasons-Si]

The parra so far at 114...

 

[Griff]

1 minute ago, Allseasons-si said:

The parra so far at 114...

 

I'm watching, hoping beyond hope for something inspirational to pop up on a Monday afternoon  

Or perhaps the gem might...