Model output discussion 24/01/21

[mb018538]

Wouldn’t worry too much about the chaotic nature of the models at the moment...they may well catch up to further PV stress, mjo movement and rising AAM soon. I’d expect more blocked regimes to start dominating into February.

[Kentspur]

9 minutes ago, MJB said:

I am more than happy with a repeat of yesterday where MBY did quite well ( 10cm) , it will sit around for a couple of days before the milder air takes over , 2 or 3 or these events will do just fine . Yes a 2 week deep freeze is rare as we know , localised marginal events can be much better ,  after last nights freeze its lethal.

The next wintry flavour could be very soon

 

Don't be greedy now I hope this is modelled a couple hundred miles further SE for us snowless folks in the SE? You know you're lucks up when even 2/3 of London has some but you dont. I still think the models will play around with some different blocking set ups with a lot of the background signals still in favour, February's always best for snowfall for us coastal counties ive found with the SSTs better

 

Well enjoy your snow those that have had some

Edited January 25, 2021 by Kentspur

[nick sussex]

7 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

Two weeks ago I said there was no sign of a sustained cold outbreak, but there was signs of large snow falls with the cold moving south and north over time.

We are yet to see a substantial snowfall even thou we have had several across the country where the boundary sits.

The output remains the same with snow fall always a possibility even large localised ones.

Maybe its time we stopped looking for a two week winter freeze and just enjoy whats on offer?

Some areas have done okay during the last few weeks but many have had no lying snow . Without deep cold and a decent duration of that it will always more likely be a case of hit and miss affairs with many left very disappointed . The way the media have gone on you’d think the whole country was blanketed in snow.  

[sebastiaan1973]

It reminds me of the warning of Tamara...

[ALL ABOARD]

4 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Some areas have done okay during the last few weeks but many have had no lying snow . Without deep cold and a decent duration of that it will always more likely be a case of hit and miss affairs with many left very disappointed . The way the media have gone on you’d think the whole country was blanketed in snow.  

Have to disagree with this nick as I look out of the window here .. 

Large parts of Wales today are under snow.. 

Even swansea has a decent covering which is right on the coast, large swathes of the Midlands right down to London... 

The North East and North West have had laying snow.. 

Scotland has had a few days already as had Northern Ireland...

Barring the far south west of England I'm pretty sure most have done better this year already than we have for a few years. 

[Griff]

2 minutes ago, sebastiaan1973 said:

It reminds me of the warning of Tamara...

A bit like the same tweet in the tweet thread

[Northern Sky]

5 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Some areas have done okay during the last few weeks but many have had no lying snow . Without deep cold and a decent duration of that it will always more likely be a case of hit and miss affairs with many left very disappointed . The way the media have gone on you’d think the whole country was blanketed in snow.  

I think that's because London got a bit of snow! Parts of North Yorkshire have had lying snow for four weeks now.

Back to the models and the GFS 06Z keeps the cold air over the north from 170hrs right till the end of the run. 

[feb1991blizzard]

2 minutes ago, sebastiaan1973 said:

It reminds me of the warning of Tamara...

That tweet looks good news to me.

10 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Wouldn’t worry too much about the chaotic nature of the models at the moment...they may well catch up to further PV stress, mjo movement and rising AAM soon. I’d expect more blocked regimes to start dominating into February.

Is number 4 (yellow) the latest run?  - if so - good news.

[sebastiaan1973]

2 minutes ago, Griff said:

A bit like the same tweet in the tweet thread

It deserves more attention Griff. Thanks for sharing in the first place

[PiscesStar]

1 hour ago, Windysun1 said:

Well we have been looking at juicey 9 day outputs since christmas and they never materialised. So i wouldnt put much faith in a milder scenario occuring either

Oh no. That's when mild and boring  it's likely to materialise 

[nick sussex]

3 minutes ago, ALL ABOARD said:

Have to disagree with this nick as I look out of the window here .. 

Large parts of Wales today are under snow.. 

Even swansea has a decent covering which is right on the coast, large swathes of the Midlands right down to London... 

The North East and North West have had laying snow.. 

Scotland has had a few days already as had Northern Ireland...

Barring the far south west of England I'm pretty sure most have done better this year already than we have for a few years. 

It’s certainly been a better winter , I’m not disagreeing on that front but some areas have had nothing so I’d like to see that change . And the search for those charts that can deliver those ice days and days of crunchy snow more widely is part of the fun aswell as the frustration .

[PiscesStar]

11 minutes ago, ALL ABOARD said:

Have to disagree with this nick as I look out of the window here .. 

Large parts of Wales today are under snow.. 

Even swansea has a decent covering which is right on the coast, large swathes of the Midlands right down to London... 

The North East and North West have had laying snow.. 

Scotland has had a few days already as had Northern Ireland...

Barring the far south west of England I'm pretty sure most have done better this year already than we have for a few years. 

No. Not the south East 

[sebastiaan1973]

5 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

It’s certainly been a better winter , I’m not disagreeing on that front but some areas have had nothing so I’d like to see that change . And the search for those charts that can deliver those ice days and days of crunchy snow more widely is part of the fun aswell as the frustration .

Yep. One day of snow instead of zero

[mountain shadow]

15 minutes ago, ALL ABOARD said:

Have to disagree with this nick as I look out of the window here .. 

Large parts of Wales today are under snow.. 

Even swansea has a decent covering which is right on the coast, large swathes of the Midlands right down to London... 

The North East and North West have had laying snow.. 

Scotland has had a few days already as had Northern Ireland...

Barring the far south west of England I'm pretty sure most have done better this year already than we have for a few years. 

The point Nick is making and which I agree with, is that there has been no deep cold and there has been no longevity to it. Yes, it has been better than some years but that isn't hard.

I remain hopeful that we will see a more deep cold into February from the continued SSW impacts and perhaps some MJO assistance.

[Cold Winter Night]

What stands out to me is the many changes in the output.
Ops go up and down, blocked to flat to blocked again, and ensembles likewise. Clear 'trends' are absent.
My confidence in the output is not very high at the moment, with so much going on.

Last night, EPS was encouraging for coldies, this morning, EC Op and the EPS mean don't seem to be very great.

But compare these two plumes for T2m De Bilt. The one from Jan 22nd and the one from today.
Look at next Saturday the 30th, and Sunday and Monday.

Just 3 days ago, the Op was almost the mildest of the pack for those days.
Today, the mean for next weekend came down about 5 degrees and the Op is as cold as the coldest members had it on the 22nd.

And it was not deep FI, but +168h-216h.

[Scandinavian High.]

8 minutes ago, Snowfish2 said:

No. Not the south East 

London south east had snow day yesterday me and my children had first snow ball fight since 2018

[Paul]

We're straying a bit here - can we steer it back to the models please  

The chat thread already has a fair bit of conversation about how the winter has gone so far etc, for those who want to talk about that side of things. 

 

 

[Bricriu]

8 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

The point Nick is making and which I agree with, is that there has been no deep cold and there has been no longevity to it. Yes, it has been better than some years but that isn't hard.

I remain hopeful that we will see a more deep cold into February from the continued SSW impacts and perhaps some MJO assistance.

I think  it will be a continuation of what we've seen to date, colder interludes, with snow for some, then a milder turn. We are just not seeing any strong signal for  a sustained cold spell as of yet.

[PiscesStar]

18 minutes ago, Cold Winter Night said:

What stands out to me is the many changes in the output.
Ops go up and down, blocked to flat to blocked again, and ensembles likewise. Clear 'trends' are absent.
My confidence in the output is not very high at the moment, with so much going on.

Last night, EPS was encouraging for coldies, this morning, EC Op and the EPS mean don't seem to be very great.

But compare these two plumes for T2m De Bilt. The one from Jan 22nd and the one from today.
Look at next Saturday the 30th, and Sunday and Monday.

Just 3 days ago, the Op was almost the mildest of the pack for those days.
Today, the mean for next weekend came down about 5 degrees and the Op is as cold as the coldest members had it on the 22nd.

And it was not deep FI, but +168h-216h.

Great points  thank you 

[sebastiaan1973]

20 minutes ago, Cold Winter Night said:

What stands out to me is the many changes in the output.
Ops go up and down, blocked to flat to blocked again, and ensembles likewise. Clear 'trends' are absent.
My confidence in the output is not very high at the moment, with so much going on.

 

Well, in my eyes it's game over for real cold weather within 8-10 days. We see at three most used models the same development at 144h. A small, temporarily wedge, easily moved aside by the round cyclone. This seems to me the general theme. Of course there some variation in timing.

Futher on we a lack of pressure rising at Scandinavia. It is something we see all winter long. So we loose precious days, before another attempt may come. This seems to me the general theme.

Edited January 25, 2021 by sebastiaan1973

[Vikos]

The comparison of the GFS Strat. Prognosis from January 20, 2021 (left) shows a direct hit in the analysis from January 25, 2021 (right): The analyzed air pressure distribution in the lower stratosphere at around 16 km altitude (100 hPa) is almost identical to the Forecast from January 20, 2021. The polar vortex is divided into a Eurasian main vortex and a Canadian partial vortex (split) by a high pressure bridge over northern Canada. A strong northern current leads from the Arctic over the North Sea directly to Western and Central Europe, a strong cold trough over the Baltic Sea steered the snowy trough to Central Europe on January 24th, 2021. ECMWF deserves the same praise.

[Methuselah]

1 hour ago, nick sussex said:

Some areas have done okay during the last few weeks but many have had no lying snow . Without deep cold and a decent duration of that it will always more likely be a case of hit and miss affairs with many left very disappointed . The way the media have gone on you’d think the whole country was blanketed in snow.  

I agree, Nick: a relative lack of deep cold has, IMO, been a factor, so far this winter, given the synoptics (and, personally, I suspect the Arctic Amplification has something to do with it?) Though, with the BFTE only three-years' ago, I cannae imagine the World's warmed up enough, in that time, to render a similar event impossible...?

Even in the rarified world of GFS06Z Day 10, Uppers still look marginal, to me:

    

Edited January 25, 2021 by General Cluster

[SLEETY]

17 minutes ago, sebastiaan1973 said:

Well, in my eyes it's game over for real cold weather within 8-10 days. We see at three most used models the same development at 144h. A small, temporarily wedge, easily moved aside by the round cyclone. This seems to me the general theme. Of course there some variation in timing.

Futher on we a lack of pressure rising at Scandinavia. It is something we see all winter long. So we loose precious days, before another attempt may come. This seems to me the general theme.

Might be game over for deep cold this winter, if the models verify at 144 hours. 

Then it's full on atlantic then, with low after low, long way to get deep cold from that set_up. 

Really frustrating winter with deep cold never too far away, and a big freeze-up instead we have been  left with marginal events with some getting lucky and getting a pasting whilst others nothing, but all of  the snow washed away couple days later anyway, as its been impossible to get sustained HLB in the correct place, so lows barrel across, with just NE Scotland holding on to colder air. 

Rinse and repeat the entire winter!! 

Edited January 25, 2021 by SLEETY

[MJB]

1 hour ago, ALL ABOARD said:

Have to disagree with this nick as I look out of the window here .. 

Large parts of Wales today are under snow.. 

Even swansea has a decent covering which is right on the coast, large swathes of the Midlands right down to London... 

The North East and North West have had laying snow.. 

Scotland has had a few days already as had Northern Ireland...

Barring the far south west of England I'm pretty sure most have done better this year already than we have for a few years. 

Shows yesterdays snow cover , quite an area 

[MJB]

Late on the Control isn't without interest