Model output discussion 24/01/21

[sebastiaan1973]

14 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Not a great start to the day with the ECM trend from last night strengthening , the  low speeds across the Atlantic on steroids , any wedge waves the white flag and scarpers off at day 6 .

After that it’s a case of the troughing sat over the UK as per the ECM op or more trough disruption and the return of the odd wedge to take the jet further south .

Whats very unlikely is any deep cold from the east or a Scandi high within ten days . 

Some snow is a possibility but we certainly need the ECM op to start disrupting more energy se wards for that to happen.

 

Yes. EC-oper gets more support.

[Tim Bland]

1 minute ago, The BEAST From The East said:

Good or bad? ?

I’d say fairly average with a mixed signal still,  but perhaps more confidence of a decent cold spell from 4th Feb? ....

[sheikhy]

Man the more i look at the models after 144 hour the more grateful i am for the snow i got yesterday!!!

[feb1991blizzard]

5 minutes ago, The BEAST From The East said:

Good or bad? ?

good, - mean below -5c.

[Tim Bland]

28 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

good, - mean below -5c.

I’d say for London (see my set above) the mean is around -4 and that’s only for a few days. Would struggle to see much snow in the south? Looks like a continuation of snow on high ground midlands north and very temporary sleet or wet snow further south

[TSNWK]

1 minute ago, Tim Bland said:

I’d say for London (see my set above) the mean is around -4 and that’s only for a few days. Would struggle to see much snow in the south? Looks like a continuation of snow on high ground midlands north and very temporary sleet or wet snow further south

You really have to give credit to the metoffice this winter.  Their 30 day updates have been on the button whole winter. 

[northwestsnow]

Not feeling it with the EC det and mean.

Hoping ext eps look better but time is ticking now, solar input will become an issue mid Feb onwards...

We need upgrades sharpish..

[Frigid]

GFS ensembles look good, definitely better than yesterday

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, Tim Bland said:

I’d say for London (see my set above) the mean is around -4 and that’s only for a few days. Would struggle to see much snow in the south? Looks like a continuation of snow on high ground midlands north and very temporary sleet or wet snow further south

TBF i am talking fairly far out - too far to use the mean as an actual forecast parameter, the mean being around -4c or -5c in FI just gives you a shot at -8 to -10 unless there is real tight grouping, hoping that as we get within 100 hours, its the cold clustering that wins out and the mild runs disappear and as a result the mean drops to -7c then uultimately -8c or below denoting any event is an all snow event, in other words -4c can mean a 100% chance of -4c, a 50% chance of 0c and a 50% chance of -8c, or just about any other combination within the spread.

[SLEETY]

1 hour ago, nick sussex said:

Not a great start to the day with the ECM trend from last night strengthening , the  low speeds across the Atlantic on steroids , any wedge waves the white flag and scarpers off at day 6 .

After that it’s a case of the troughing sat over the UK as per the ECM op or more trough disruption and the return of the odd wedge to take the jet further south .

Whats very unlikely is any deep cold from the east or a Scandi high within ten days . 

Some snow is a possibility but we certainly need the ECM op to start disrupting more energy se wards for that to happen.

 

Yes,Cant get the deep cold into the UK this winter,looks prime towards the weekend,but somehow that low rushes across the Atlantic and the cold air gets pushed away by all the models now.Still a long way out so maybe they have it incorrect,find out in the next 24 hours.in this frustrating winter here,at least some have seen snow this winter,if this run verifies,might not be much more.

[PiscesStar]

1 minute ago, SLEETY said:

Yes,Cant get the deep cold into the UK this winter,looks prime towards the weekend,but somehow that low rushes across the Atlantic and the cold air gets pushed away by all the models now.Still a long way out so maybe they have it incorrect,find out in the next 24 hours.in this frustrating winter here,at least some have seen snow this winter,if this run verifies,might not be much more.

We've seen next to none and with such great synoptics I remain optimistic 

[Scandinavian High.]

You would thing we would be going in to colder spell with this chart . 

[mb018538]

While we’re all waiting for our winter nirvana, rainfall totals will need to be watched once again over the next 7-10 days, especially in the W/NW

[sebastiaan1973]

9 minutes ago, Scandinavian High. said:

You would thing we would be going in to colder spell with this chart . 

The the shape of the cyclone is too round, so that heat advection at the front of the cyclone is not directed properly northward. The cyclone moves too fast from west to east. A shame.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Well I don’t see any major issue yet.  I actually overall like what is before us and what is still on the table to develop.  It may turn out that we have another chilly month in Feb with some cold shots and less cold back and forth with no deep freeze and no particular mild spell.  That is very much on the table.  But also is a big shot and a blow out...making it very interesting watching.....there certainly is plenty of serious intensely deep cold floating around the NH to ‘share out’.

For me this morning I looked at GEM, then UKMO and thought...nice little upgrades.  GFS I thought yep that’s keeping the interest and in the game. I then looked at the ECM and up to t120 I thought ...very nice going forward....then it changed.  The t144 not too dissimilar to UKMO but roundness and angle of the LP approaching moreso on ECM not looking like it would disrupt/slide/shunt SE.  It pushes through us with the core sat above Scotland to bring westerly flow but then hits a wall in North Sea and goes nowhere and it has no follow up trough from the Atlantic to assist it so it stays in situ and becomes flabby.  The block to far NE in arctic Russia initially subsides at t168 to allow the trough to push through us then re-asserts backing/ridging west.  It is this point at t168 where I believe that we will see the ECM back off and the trough won’t push through but will start to disrupt and slide over us, at worst, or to our West.  The op is not an outlier I know but as we’ve seen that has meant diddly this winter....it could very well be right but I don’t think it will be.

ukmo t144

ECM t144

 

similar but for me UKMO doesn’t have the same t168 and 192 as the ECM written on it.  And looking at GFS ensemble and GEM ...well let’s see where this goes.

 

 

t168

t192

t216

 

going nowhere but look at the Atlantic, nothing and look around Svabard on t240...block re-asserting

Imminent deep freeze I’m not projecting...remaining well within the game I am.

BFTP

Edited January 25, 2021 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[Windysun1]

41 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Not feeling it with the EC det and mean.

Hoping ext eps look better but time is ticking now, solar input will become an issue mid Feb onwards...

We need upgrades sharpish..

Well we have been looking at juicey 9 day outputs since christmas and they never materialised. So i wouldnt put much faith in a milder scenario occuring either

[sheikhy]

Jesus i thought it couldnt get any worse just look how flat the gfs 06z is!!!

[Andrew snow hope]

1 hour ago, TSNWK said:

You really have to give credit to the metoffice this winter.  Their 30 day updates have been on the button whole winter. 

Completely agree, they have nailed this! 

[Kentspur]

For me these are the most promising models of the day so far- could we soon see some assistance from the MJO? 

GFS goes very high amp phase 7, while ECM and CFS are looking like they may continue through 7 into 8 

[nick sussex]

Today’s outputs highlight the problem with the ensembles at longer range , the so called solid support for colder conditions can implode quickly. 

Yesterday’s ECM op run now sadly looks like the trend setter . The jet looks to remain south but without any stronger blocking in the right place it looks like chasing the odd wedge which might allow for just enough cold for some snow   but likely to be marginal .

Hopefully tonight’s outputs stop the slide ! 

[MJB]

1 hour ago, Frigid said:

GFS ensembles look good, definitely better than yesterday

I'd agree , a cool down on the 2nd ( next Tuesday ) , lets see if it can be maintained 

[SLEETY]

Whats stopping the really cold air hitting the uk,somehow a low is able to blast away all the cold air attempting to get into the UK in 24 hours.The ecm and ukmo at 120 hours look prime for cold air winning out,but 24 hours later it all goes wrong  with that low steaming in,and its game-over.

[frosty ground]

21 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Today’s outputs highlight the problem with the ensembles at longer range , the so called solid support for colder conditions can implode quickly. 

Yesterday’s ECM op run now sadly looks like the trend setter . The jet looks to remain south but without any stronger blocking in the right place it looks like chasing the odd wedge which might allow for just enough cold for some snow   but likely to be marginal .

Hopefully tonight’s outputs stop the slide ! 

Two weeks ago I said there was no sign of a sustained cold outbreak, but there was signs of large snow falls with the cold moving south and north over time.

We are yet to see a substantial snowfall even thou we have had several across the country where the boundary sits.

The output remains the same with snow fall always a possibility even large localised ones.

Maybe its time we stopped looking for a two week winter freeze and just enjoy whats on offer?

[MJB]

1 minute ago, frosty ground said:

Two weeks ago I said there was no sign of a sustained cold outbreak, but there was signs of large snow falls with the cold moving south and north over time.

We are yet to see a substantial snowfall even thou we have had several across the country where the boundary sits.

The output remains the same with snow fall always a possibility even large localised ones.

Maybe its time we stopped looking for a two week winter freeze and just enjoy whats on offer?

I am more than happy with a repeat of yesterday where MBY did quite well ( 10cm) , it will sit around for a couple of days before the milder air takes over , 2 or 3 or these events will do just fine . Yes a 2 week deep freeze is rare as we know , localised marginal events can be much better ,  after last nights freeze its lethal.

The next wintry flavour could be very soon

 

[feb1991blizzard]

32 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Today’s outputs highlight the problem with the ensembles at longer range , the so called solid support for colder conditions can implode quickly. 

Yesterday’s ECM op run now sadly looks like the trend setter . The jet looks to remain south but without any stronger blocking in the right place it looks like chasing the odd wedge which might allow for just enough cold for some snow   but likely to be marginal .

Hopefully tonight’s outputs stop the slide ! 

Yes, that is why i get absolutely ridiculed after calling a cold spell fail after only 2 or 3 successive downgrades but its true, the next 3 days ens suites are critical, you need them to climb aboard and stay aboard, what we are looking for is more and more members to join the cold cluster, once youur in the 192 range you need more than half the suite on board, once they start joining the milder cluster inside 192 its usually game over.