Model output discussion 24/01/21

[Tim Bland]

1 hour ago, sheikhy said:

Torrid charts this morning and im not talkin about after days 9 or 10 cos they are always nice and rosy at that timeframe and seem to stay there!!charts look good at 96 hours then implode!it really aint looking good in the reliable timeframe!!!winter slipping away slowly but surely!!

Most models have some snow next week? Day 7/8 ? ECM, GFS & GEM below. No deep freeze but snow possibilities...

[Vikos]

11 minutes ago, sebastiaan1973 said:

EC46 shows we have to wait for the second week of February. Matt Hugo seems to point in that direction as well. J

 

Know what? Those twitters are predicting great stuff, but they get delayed and delayed. Was 25th, then month change, then first week of February, now it’s somewhere in the middle. See my avatar for closer detail...

[winterof79]

1 hour ago, bluearmy said:

those who say that we aren’t seeing the strat affecting the trop should perhaps check out where the spv and tpv currently reside and where the spv and tpv currently don’t reside 

btw, at day 10 ec has the spv over Greenland ..... no prizes for guessing where the tpv is (and the strat ridge matches too into Alaska) 

               
 

the movement of the vortex is never a good thing for blocking as it generally brings mobility to the Atlantic sector .....so we rely on wedges until later in week 2 
 

 

Whoohoo all good news then.... Not. Although it would all change if one system drops south east

Edited January 26, 2021 by winterof79

[Hotspur62]

5 minutes ago, Vikos said:

Know what? Those twitters are predicting great stuff, but they get delayed and delayed. Was 25th, then month change, then first week of February, now it’s somewhere in the middle. See my avatar for closer detail...

Yes agree.Winter of frustration or what espicially for those predominantly but not exclusively in the South.Although ridiculed the medium range forecast has been pretty much spot in from met office for last 2 weeks and maybe take a look for next 2 weeks for guidance.Maybe not what we want to see or hear but so far they have been pretty much on the money.Think the far north and espicially Scotland’s have a lot to look forward to though,maybe not so Midlands southwards.

Edited January 26, 2021 by Hotspur62

[sebastiaan1973]

12 minutes ago, Vikos said:

Know what? Those twitters are predicting great stuff, but they get delayed and delayed. Was 25th, then month change, then first week of February, now it’s somewhere in the middle. See my avatar for closer detail...

I agree Vikos. What I wanted to say, that the next possible opportunity will come in second week of February.

Something else.

From monday onwards the Oper is on the mild side of the ENS. I don't see cold weather in the plume.

 

Edited January 26, 2021 by sebastiaan1973

[Mr_Pessimistic]

13 minutes ago, Vikos said:

Know what? Those twitters are predicting great stuff, but they get delayed and delayed. Was 25th, then month change, then first week of February, now it’s somewhere in the middle. See my avatar for closer detail...

Been a lurker for 10+ years on here, is the same every year, not good for your mental health this thread.   I do notice a difference this year though, more 80s style charts, but will they fall in our favour?  Probably not.

[Gowon]

9 minutes ago, Vikos said:

Know what? Those twitters are predicting great stuff, but they get delayed and delayed. Was 25th, then month change, then first week of February, now it’s somewhere in the middle. See my avatar for closer detail...

You used to tell us not to look at didi land - What's happened to the optimistic Vikos? 

[mountain shadow]

1 hour ago, bluearmy said:

those who say that we aren’t seeing the strat affecting the trop 

I'm not sure folk are saying that.

What folk are saying is that the SSW has not impacted our islands in a deep cold with a little longevity kind of way...yet.

 

 

[winterof79]

16 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

Whoohoo all good news then.... Not

Although it would all change with one system dropping se

[TSNWK]

2 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

Although it would all change with one system dropping se

Looks like another cold weekend.  Definitely been a weekly ebb and flow of the cold since Christmas..

Friday's turn cold.. weekend cold it warms up from Tuesday and then goes cold again 

If that chart verifes I believe it will be 5th weekly cycle.. 

 

[Vikos]

3 minutes ago, D.V.R said:

You used to tell us not to look at didi land - What's happened to the optimistic Vikos? 

Well, kind of resignation. The candle of opportunity is slowly dying, days get longer, and the models are playing the delaying game. I could kick myself for that i got sucked into the thrill of hunting d10 bfte charts, again.

[Vikos]

14 minutes ago, sebastiaan1973 said:

I agree Vikos. What I wanted to say, that the next possible opportunity will come in second week of February.

Something else.

From monday onwards the Oper is on the mild side of the ENS. I don't see cold weather in the plume.

 

See, this is a good example. Even with the best setup in years it fails and scratches always on the warmest/mildest outcome there possibly can be. It’s like we are witched. Without a wonder, a scandi high popping up or so, things look meh

[Griff]

46 minutes ago, sebastiaan1973 said:

 

 

41 minutes ago, sebastiaan1973 said:

EC46 shows we have to wait for the second week of February. Matt Hugo seems to point in that direction as well. Altough the signal seems to be rather weak at the moment.

 

This is in line with the ao / nao charts forecasting a rise back towards neutral (so trending positive) before dipping negative again. So no real surprises as we head into February. Interest follows in what happens with the next strat warming that Marco P and others have been discussing. 

[Anthony Burden]

Morning all Carol on bbc weather just stated possible threat of snow in the south on Saturday 

coming from France.Back to the charts all over the place still like the look of GEM,this model

has preformed extremely well of late keep it up GEM.

[sebastiaan1973]

4 minutes ago, Vikos said:

See, this is a good example. Even with the best setup in years it fails and scratches always on the warmest/mildest outcome there possibly can be. It’s like we are witched. Without a wonder, a scandi high popping up or so, things look meh

Yep. This morning I woke up with the same idea. We are cursed in NW-Europe. Scandihighs in the winter are so rare these days. As spring arrives, they will return

[PiscesStar]

14 minutes ago, Vikos said:

Well, kind of resignation. The candle of opportunity is slowly dying, days get longer, and the models are playing the delaying game. I could kick myself for that i got sucked into the thrill of hunting d10 bfte charts, again.

You and me Both 

[PiscesStar]

1 hour ago, Nick F said:

A chance of another snow event on Sunday, a week after many central, southern and western areas saw some snow.

00z EC shows snow to rain event on Sunday, as Atlantic frontal system bumps into cold wedge of HP ahead of it - but with a positive tilt to trough and no undercut front edge of front snow turns to rain eventually as milder air wins out.

However, 00z GEM shows low pressure being forced to undercut the cold HP wedge, so greater chance of all snow event next Sunday. But without support for this scenario from EC, GFS or UKMO.

00z ICON brings the Atlantic low at more negative tilt against the wedge, attempts at a brief undercut, but goes wrong way in the end.

It's the outsider the undercut, but wouldn't rule it out, sometimes models underestimate blocking cold surface highs, even a small wedge.

Not great viewing in the medium range from GFS and EC, trop PV re-organises over Greenland and generally over the arctic, BUT, so much chopping and changing of the arctic flows since the SSW, that not sure models can be trusted with mapping heights over arctic at the moment. 

I do t tho k they can be trusted toomuch volatility atm more runs needed 

[Scandinavian High.]

Gem as us in a continental flow all the way 240 hours with snow in south this weekend as the model nailed this I’m hoping but I doubt it ..

Edited January 26, 2021 by Scandinavian High.

[Tim Bland]

17 minutes ago, Anthony Burden said:

Morning all Carol on bbc weather just stated possible threat of snow in the south on Saturday 

coming from France.Back to the charts all over the place still like the look of GEM,this model

has preformed extremely well of late keep it up GEM.

BBC use the ECM from 12 hours previous for their forecasts. I know some disagree every time I say this but if you look at their graphics they are 100% generated by the the ECM.  I haven’t seen the recent forecast but below is yesterday’s 12z ECM for Sat and I would bet my house it matches what BBC will be saying right now...

[Weather of Mass Disruption]

21 minutes ago, Griff said:

 

This is in line with the ao / nao charts forecasting a rise back towards neutral (so trending positive) before dipping negative again. So no real surprises as we head into February. Interest follows in what happens with the next strat warming that Marco P and others have been discussing. 

If there is a another SSW and a split of the vortex, taking into account the lag time, does this mean the CFS could be close to the mark for an historically cold March? I can’t recall who posted charts previously of this, but assume it could be a real possibility 

[Nimbusman]

53 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Most models have some snow next week? Day 7/8 ? ECM, GFS & GEM below. No deep freeze but snow possibilities...

Yes Tim, looks like we have repeating patterns here. I know it’s not ideal for most and not deep cold everyone is yearning for but at least it keeps offering chances. 

[Rocheydub]

10 minutes ago, Snowfish2 said:

I do t tho k they can be trusted toomuch volatility atm more runs needed 

What??

[The Northern Ramper]

2 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

BBC use the ECM from 12 hours previous for their forecasts. I know some disagree every time I say this but if you look at their graphics they are 100% generated by the the ECM.  I haven’t seen the recent forecast but below is yesterday’s 12z ECM for Sat and I would bet my house it matches what BBC will be saying right now...

It makes sense for them to follow the best performing model for verification stats.

[Griff]

4 minutes ago, Weather of Mass Disruption said:

If there is a another SSW and a split of the vortex, taking into account the lag time, does this mean the CFS could be close to the mark for an historically cold March? I can’t recall who posted charts previously of this, but assume it could be a real possibility 

Million dollar question, but it's been a winter of surprises. 

[chris55]

1 hour ago, Nick F said:

A chance of another snow event on Sunday, a week after many central, southern and western areas saw some snow.

00z EC shows snow to rain event on Sunday, as Atlantic frontal system bumps into cold wedge of HP ahead of it - but with a positive tilt to trough and no undercut front edge of front snow turns to rain eventually as milder air wins out.

However, 00z GEM shows low pressure being forced to undercut the cold HP wedge, so greater chance of all snow event next Sunday. But without support for this scenario from EC, GFS or UKMO.

00z ICON brings the Atlantic low at more negative tilt against the wedge, attempts at a brief undercut, but goes wrong way in the end.

It's the outsider the undercut, but wouldn't rule it out, sometimes models underestimate blocking cold surface highs, even a small wedge.

Not great viewing in the medium range from GFS and EC, trop PV re-organises over Greenland and generally over the arctic, BUT, so much chopping and changing of the arctic flows since the SSW, that not sure models can be trusted with mapping heights over arctic at the moment. 

Undercut and trough disruption looks like it is a viable option, not widely supported but at day 5+ confidence in either outcome low.

A few GFS ensemble members also undercut. p18.

 

It wouldn't surprise me at all to see this type of progression gain some more support over the next few days.