Model output discussion 24/01/21

[nick sussex]

4 minutes ago, Matt Jones said:

It's a fair point and just as much as milder spells (as recently happened) can be eroded so can cold spells. Quite often I see pattern locked in or the block is not going to be shifted that easily but all too often cold spells can be short and blown away quickly. From the GFS perspective I think the hope is the breakdown as shown later in the run will perhaps go under the block and prolong the cold spell.

If we get a bit of snow in the starved eastern areas I would be happy.

The shortwave which tracks south later on and phases with the upstream troughing would need to be modelled exactly the same in future runs . Given its post day ten that’s a bit of a stretch .

I understand it’s not been great for you in that part of the country . I’m keeping everything crossed that that cold pool arrives . That will certainly deliver for your area .

 

 

[Biggin]

6 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Tuesday looks interesting for central and northern areas as the Atlantic makes more of an effort to get it... 

Is that a 93 cm I see in scotland ??

[Chesil View]

5 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

Looking good for a cold blast from the east which most seem to  yearn. Not that I don't love them. BUT you can't ignore these. Never straight forward is it. Fingers crossed the sets are wrong 

Or of course you could choose to not ignore the ones that stay cold. Just a thought.

[Southender]

17 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

Good morning !!!!!!! Good morning!!!!!! 
check ECM op before any other output

Bring me my Thames streamer  Only proper chance us lot that haven’t seen a flake in the SE have this winter.

[northwestsnow]

EC what are you doing to me???

Boooooooooooom !!!!

Please weather God's make it happen..

[winterof79]

6 minutes ago, Broadmayne blizzard said:

Or of course you could choose to not ignore the ones that stay cold. Just a thought.

I was just looking at the mean as that was my point. It allows for both I believe? 

Anyway it's ages away and enough surprises before all that

Edited January 29, 2021 by winterof79

[sebastiaan1973]

Latest EC-plume De Bilt. Winddirection shows a large cluster of easterly winds.

[Tim Bland]

17 minutes ago, Biggin said:

Is that a 93 cm I see in scotland ??

Yes, probably top of Cairngorm...

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, sebastiaan1973 said:

Latest EC-plume De Bilt. Winddirection shows a large cluster of easterly winds.

That cluster seems to have grown ,a lot,over the last 48 hours...

[The Beast From The East]

2 hours ago, Battleground Snow said:

ECM at 120,

It shows multiple snow events over the next few days too.

 

Oi! You trying to wind us lot up who live South of the M4

Just kidding... ?

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

1 hour ago, Drifter said:

Great runs, but I am concerned that gfs and para want to bring it all to an end quite quickly? 

My concern is the trough on Feb 3rd.  Let’s get that disrupting correct first with NE heights building.....then worry about any breakdown...we’ve got to have something proper to break down first.

Feb 3rd trough is the hurdle....GEM is feasible and the warning indicator

 

BFTP

[Paul]

39 minutes ago, Drifter said:

Sorry, just observing what the gfs model output is showing. It’d be fine to talk up cold charts at 15 days out no doubt?

It wasn't aimed at you specifically and not about talking about cold or not. I was just making the observation that very often when it comes to cold spells there's often a lot of 'worry' from some people who focus on when they're going to end, sometimes before they've even begun and in this case waaay before the potential upcoming one has begun. 

[Anthony Burden]

ECM GFS showing some serious cold in around a week or so time.All eyes to the east

Russia here we come.Hats gloves balaclavas to the ready,but seriously charts will 

change at that time frame , so be optimistic great watching.

[Cloud 10]

11 minutes ago, Paul said:

It wasn't aimed at you specifically and not about talking about cold or not. I was just making the observation that very often when it comes to cold spells there's often a lot of 'worry' from some people who focus on when they're going to end, sometimes before they've even begun and in this case waaay before the potential upcoming one has begun. 

 

Lol,Paul.

 

[Nick F]

00z EC det. bit of a cold outlier towards the end with T850s for London

Scandi high and western Med low in the EPS  mslp means at day 8-9, but uncertainty how far west the Scandi high will build with low pressure to the west of British Isles. This in turn affects how far west the cold will back.

I think if the Atlantic lows undercut to the SW, as often happens, this will allow the Scandi high to extend further west into the NE Atlantic and back the deep cold further west.

Early days, and those worrying about the ensemble trends in the extended shouldn't as these can change like the operationals change with each run, though usually not so wildly.

Edited January 29, 2021 by Nick F

[Anthony Burden]

3 minutes ago, Nick F said:

00z EC det. bit of a cold outlier towards the end with T850s for London

Scandi high and Genoa low in the EPS  mslp means at day 8-9, but uncertainty how far west the Scandi high will build with low pressure to the west of British Isles. This in turn affects how far west the cold will back.

I think of the Atlantic lows undercut to the SW, as often happens, this will allow the Scandi high to extend further west into the NE Atlantic and back the deep cold further west.

Early days, and those worrying about the ensemble trends in the extended shouldn't as these can change like the operationals change with each run, though usually not so wildly.

Hi Nick,

Perhaps this time round the Scandinavian high will push further west and bring some serious cold to

are shores.

[sheikhy]

I did say i expected that mild hump between next tuesday and thursday to flatten out and it seems to be doing that now!!just a couple of runs later than i thought it would!!

[PiscesStar]

35 minutes ago, The BEAST From The East said:

Oi! You trying to wind us lot up who live South of the M4

Just kidding... ?

I'm not 

[sheikhy]

Hows the snow chances tomorrow now?!!any 00z models keep it further north?!

[Chesil View]

19 minutes ago, Nick F said:

00z EC det. bit of a cold outlier towards the end with T850s for London

Scandi high and western Med low in the EPS  mslp means at day 8-9, but uncertainty how far west the Scandi high will build with low pressure to the west of British Isles. This in turn affects how far west the cold will back.

I think if the Atlantic lows undercut to the SW, as often happens, this will allow the Scandi high to extend further west into the NE Atlantic and back the deep cold further west.

Early days, and those worrying about the ensemble trends in the extended shouldn't as these can change like the operationals change with each run, though usually not so wildly.

Hi Nick  The lows from the west have already shown a tendency to disrupt against relatively little blocking so far this winter. Hence the numerous snow events around the Midlands and north.

So with the jet displaced to the south already and the chance of a genuine Scandi block I wouldn't be surprised to see some ,70's and 80's style sliding lows to the south west of the UK. 

Edited January 29, 2021 by Broadmayne blizzard

[MJB]

3 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Hows the snow chances tomorrow now?!!any 00z models keep it further north?!

Weakened quite a bit and edged further South , Sunday looks the same as previously forecasted though 

[MJB]

And here we go , will it be cheers or tears ...............time will tell 

[Arrows1986]

57 minutes ago, Paul said:

It wasn't aimed at you specifically and not about talking about cold or not. I was just making the observation that very often when it comes to cold spells there's often a lot of 'worry' from some people who focus on when they're going to end, sometimes before they've even begun and in this case waaay before the potential upcoming one has begun. 

I dont really comment on here too often as I'm a novice but have observed for many years. Its fascinating reading other enthusaists take on things.  Amazing the knowledge you guys and girls have tbh. Its the British weather which tbf will change closer to the time. However, why not enjoy the models and outputs. I think your right there's always the thought of if it will happen and when will it end. I bet that 99% of people will be happy for a week of proper cold and snow. Any longer than everyone will moan at the problems itll cause. 

[The Bevmeister]

1 hour ago, Premier Neige said:

Why are you even bothering looking at uppers a week away? It will no doubt change...

My guess would be because this is the model output discussion thread

[Ice Day]

39 minutes ago, Nick F said:

00z EC det. bit of a cold outlier towards the end with T850s for London

Scandi high and western Med low in the EPS  mslp means at day 8-9, but uncertainty how far west the Scandi high will build with low pressure to the west of British Isles. This in turn affects how far west the cold will back.

I think if the Atlantic lows undercut to the SW, as often happens, this will allow the Scandi high to extend further west into the NE Atlantic and back the deep cold further west.

Early days, and those worrying about the ensemble trends in the extended shouldn't as these can change like the operationals change with each run, though usually not so wildly.

Overall, superb overnight runs, UKMO, GFS and ECM are just where we want them at 144.  But just a note of caution, as the ECM mean shows above, this is not a done deal by any stretch.  The mean 850's are actually increasing at 240 which is a slight surprise.  Anyway, just a minor concern at this stage, let's see what the 6z throws at us.