Model output discussion 24/01/21

[Froze were the Days]

That 06z run, fairly poor (if you live in the south 174h-222h) at first with a strange shaped high pressure but then morphs into a huge area of high pressure perfectly aligned to bring in deep cold...as mentioned above has to be a cold outlier, but there have been a few ensembles showing such outrageous charts. I wonder if they're on the increase?

[Radiating Dendrite]

Just now, Froze were the Days said:

That 06z run, fairly poor (if you live in the south 174h-222h) at first with a strange shaped high pressure but then morphs into a huge area of high pressure perfectly aligned to bring in deep cold...as mentioned above has to be a cold outlier, but there have been a few ensembles showing such outrageous charts. I wonder if they're on the increase?

Poor? If it leads to the latter frames, I could handle it I think. 

[SqueakheartLW]

1 minute ago, Froze were the Days said:

That 06z run, fairly poor (if you live in the south 174h-222h) at first with a strange shaped high pressure but then morphs into a huge area of high pressure perfectly aligned to bring in deep cold...as mentioned above has to be a cold outlier, but there have been a few ensembles showing such outrageous charts. I wonder if they're on the increase?

What if it turns out to be a mild outlier

[Battleground Snow]

The para looks almost identical to the ECM at 144 and we all know how that turned out later on.

It's also much improved on its 00z run for the same time period.

 

[Froze were the Days]

1 minute ago, SqueakheartLW said:

What if it turns out to be a mild outlier

Don't be silly  how is that going to be a mild outlier?...be interesting to see the ensembles to see if these type COBRA runs are increasing?

[MJB]

3 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

That 06z run, fairly poor (if you live in the south 174h-222h) at first with a strange shaped high pressure but then morphs into a huge area of high pressure perfectly aligned to bring in deep cold...as mentioned above has to be a cold outlier, but there have been a few ensembles showing such outrageous charts. I wonder if they're on the increase?

Define South please 

192 h

198h

204h

[carinthian]

2 hours ago, carinthian said:

Morning all. Some exciting winter charts this morning. The one below from ECM would normally come with a health warning ! As yet UKMO not saying anything ! but their model at 144t looks to be heading for a Scandinavian High similar to ECM . Saturdays frontal activity seems to have been forced further south and Tues/ Wed becoming more of a widespread threat for central parts. Will get an update from the team later this morning with their view on the latest snow computer run. 

Enjoy the charts .

C

Ok an update from a very slushy Alps. Probably not surprising the UK Met Office are highlighting the risk of snow next week. The snow computer flags up a slow moving band of snow across central areas as mentioned in the above post and by Wednesday the zone of snow between Birmingham in the south and Skipton in the north. Obviously corrected movements further north or south are possible but the thinking over here is for any frontal systems to stagnate. Its now likely UKMO must now be latching onto this possibility and upgrades could come very soon.

C

[Methuselah]

That's some N-S temperature gradient, innit -- >30C over 1000 miles or so? If that didn't deliver the goods, then I don't know what would!

     

One could even call it, 'extremely high risk, extremely high reward'?

[MJB]

             

Control 186h                                                  OP 186h

[Matt H]

ICON 06z is going for an impressive snow event next Tuesday/Wednesday. Wow!

[Nick F]

7 minutes ago, SqueakheartLW said:

On the other hand a surface low in those uppers could be a snow making machine

True, such lows can bring significant snow to the east and will move inland to bring snow in the west too, marginality won't be an issue too, even on the east coast with those low uppers and surface flow that will be very cold.

Anyway, trying not to get too ahead of ourselves, 00z EPS show that deep cold is not guaranteed unless we get ridging to the north.

[MJB]

192h mean 

[snowking]

21 minutes ago, MJB said:

This has to be an outlier , just wonder what support it has ...................if any 

It may end up being an outlier within its own suite, but if you're looking for support for this evolution, look no further than last night's EC46:

Scandi block > Atlantic Ridging > -NAO (i.e. Greenland block)

[Captain Shortwave]

Any easterly setting up in week 2 is going to be pretty potent. Given this will be happening in early February then -10/12c 850s would likely give a similar scenario to the 2018 beasterly as SSTs will be higher in the North Sea. The GFS op on the 00z and 06z and the ECM managed this.

Para at day 7

 

No lack of cold to our east.

Edited January 29, 2021 by Captain Shortwave

[Froze were the Days]

Seriously folks don't get hung up on me mentioning south, but it looks less favourable at that time period I mentioned in my first post. One thing I can say those precip types charts will not be correct towards the south east (posted by MJB)...-5 850 uppers at best over a warm North Sea, showing snow?

Anyway I digress...as this is looking at a small time period on one GFS run in a small area, so let's move on, next run will no doubt be different but the macroscale pattern looks good which is the most important thing.

[Griff]

// improved look towards Greenland, less likely to collapse I'd suggest 

[ICE COLD]

The mean is a stoner too . I can’t control myself

T204 Mean 

[Snowjokes92]

1 hour ago, Notty said:

and at 5 days

That ties in very well with the met office warnings for monday to wednesday could be a lot of snow and this is before a possible beasterly later in week! Amazing output. Very happy with the directions so far.

[Battleground Snow]

The OP is definitely not an outlier and there are a couple of even colder members.

 

 

[Tim Bland]

GFSp with the easterly this time next week...

[Snowjokes92]

17 minutes ago, Frosty Winter said:

ICON 06z is going for an impressive snow event next Tuesday/Wednesday. Wow!

Wow some places with 18 hours of snow non stop and the front hasnt gone by that last chart! Setting up the snow fields for whats to come!

[Scandinavian High.]

I would like here from ido on very snowy charts .

1D549062-4351-48F8-A661-62B806B27AF5.webp

[Griff]

Dear Jim, 

Please can you fix it for me so that the block holds... //

 

[Sweatyman]

12 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

The mean is a stoner too . I can’t control myself

T204 Mean 

A STONER? Been on the old Waccy Baccy has it?

[MJB]

                

Control 240h                                                 Op 240h