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Model output discussion 24/01/21

phil nw.

By phil nw.
in Forecast Model Discussion

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Allseasons-Si Maestro

Allseasons-Si

Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
Posted

The cold distribution is the same but a tad slower and slower than the UKMO

the difference isn't that much to the 06z run only the heights are stronger into Greenland at 168

12 168 v's 06z 174.

gfsnh-0-168.thumb.png.2167cd48631a2c1a2a26e972aee42d33.pnggfsnh-0-174.thumb.png.374c6df84e399b397cd97cdf8f7aab10.png

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MJB Accomplished

MJB

Posted
  • Location: Banbury
  • Weather Preferences: Deep Deep Snow causing chaos
  • Location: Banbury
Posted (edited)

Being ultra picky at it will change on the 18z - but the 12z doesn't look as good IMO

Not sure we will see the superb push from the North on this run 

image.thumb.png.37e9c7010764e15c3186393ce02fd74c.png

Nevertheless its stunning 

image.thumb.png.e28cf2b4facd2b70b173b6db8c189368.png

image.thumb.png.48b3204763a0ff830578cc34eb5e3641.png

Snow Midlands Northwards - ties in with the Met update 

 

Edited by MJB
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Captain Shortwave Maestro

Captain Shortwave

Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough
Posted (edited)

A little flatter and quicker from the UKMO, not a problem with cold air pushing westwards from Scandinavia.

GFS builds the high a little further north west towards Iceland, looks absolutely fine with showers developing and pushing west on an increasingly cold easterly wind.

image.thumb.png.452046371d40f6f1a4a96077e621ba3b.png

 

Edited by Captain Shortwave
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That ECM Maestro

That ECM

Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
Posted

JFF At this range but that would feel bitter, especially in the ne. Strong easterly, wind chill?

2802E118-ED0F-4A17-A86A-D001A5D02566.png

291A9EB1-ECE6-4725-A832-9AF0FE254742.png

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Radiating Dendrite Experienced

Radiating Dendrite

Posted
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: January 1987 / July 2006
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL
Posted
1 minute ago, BLIZZARDMAN said:

Couldn't have drawn it better myself

gfsnh-0-192.png

I would like more of a NE draw in all honesty. The uppers for the south are still only around -5c at this point. When -8c brought rain at the start of the month, we need more. 

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Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Posted

I'd rather see a northeasterly with low heights in the North Sea, than a dry east-southeasterly:

h850t850eu.png

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sheikhy Maestro

sheikhy

Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester
Posted

Much milder ukmo this evening between 72 and 120 hours !!!was hoping the cold air back further south and west with more disruption!!ah well!!!lets hope ecm keeps with it between the hours mentioned above then maybe those warnings will come to fruition from.the meto!

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Cold Winter Night Accomplished

Cold Winter Night

Posted
  • Location: Near Gouda, Holland. 6m Below Sea Level.
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, snow, ice. Very hot or very cold.
  • Location: Near Gouda, Holland. 6m Below Sea Level.
Posted
1 minute ago, BLIZZARDMAN said:

Couldn't have drawn it better myself

gfsnh-0-192.png

GFS has drawn it better, this morning.

The NW-SE alignment keeps the coldest uppers (and surface T's) to the East. And it does not link well to the Arctic High, which itself is weaker this run. This morning the Scandi/Iceland High was stronger , with better alignment.

Can we have the 6z back please? Not really going to complain much though.

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tight isobar Maestro

tight isobar

Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
Posted

Impactual-snow showers penetrating inland from the East...on by now a fridged easterly flow!

gfs-0-204.png

gfs-1-204.png

gfs-4-204.png

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That ECM Maestro

That ECM

Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
Posted
2 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

I'd rather see a northeasterly with low heights in the North Sea, than a dry east-southeasterly:

h850t850eu.png

I know you know but....... 

BFA815A2-3A58-46D6-A6D5-CA2E622E3740.png

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Allseasons-Si Maestro

Allseasons-Si

Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
Posted

The GEM at 144

gemnh-0-144.thumb.png.84e8d0d596638e2ea9cef9511e5fd75a.pnggemnh-1-144.thumb.png.ceb6db0bb7e752b9220d5b3e83ca1cf1.png

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TSNWK Maestro

TSNWK

Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
Posted
5 minutes ago, Drifter said:

Day nine and the south still doesn’t have uppers below -4c. 
?‍♂️

Agreed.   All well and good have great synoptics but we are outcome driven here with one of best measures for success being the 850s.  -8s for snow & -10 for ice days and powder.. 

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PiscesStar Rising Star

PiscesStar

Posted
  • Location: Herne Bay Kent
  • Location: Herne Bay Kent
Posted
56 minutes ago, Broadmayne blizzard said:

Indeed Sawel That is your textbook long fetch easterly and worthy of the Frost fair winters 1740 or 1684. 

According to the late great Philip Eden. The January 87 spell was the coldest across southern England since 1740 and to think I worked outside thatching roofs right through it.

Thank you for sharing this. Is that the presenter on Thames? 

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BLAST FROM THE PAST Maestro

BLAST FROM THE PAST

Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
Posted (edited)

12z is a poor run for widespread and long lasting deep cold...breakdown imminent after day 10

 

 BFTP

Edited by BLAST FROM THE PAST
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Griff Veteran

Griff

Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
Posted
1 minute ago, SLEETY said:

dont like this gfs run,messy and looks like quick breakdown,glad its the worst model in the verification stats.

I thought something similar about 06z and it defied my expectations, this run is still being surprisingly stubborn ?‍♂️ 

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MJB Accomplished

MJB

Posted
  • Location: Banbury
  • Weather Preferences: Deep Deep Snow causing chaos
  • Location: Banbury
Posted
Just now, Tim Bland said:

Snow will start piling up in the east..it will be the powdery type that doesn’t melt the next day as well

D778259A-01F3-4112-AC46-DFC12642A615.png

Snow piling in

image.thumb.png.f869f459710a55e24b15d5d5ff21bf48.png

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