Jump to content
Will it snow? 7 day forecast Weather Radar Will it be cold?
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?
IGNORED

Model output discussion - is the beast awakening?

Paul

By Paul
in Forecast Model Discussion

 Share

Recommended Posts

BLAST FROM THE PAST Maestro

BLAST FROM THE PAST

Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
Posted (edited)

We are seeing De-wobbling of the models so far.....beautiful UKMO and GFS thus far.  I’ve seen an interesting feature which I think is important....will either edit this post or a new one

Ok t114  on GEM 0z.  Look around Newfoundland and the LP joined to another well west thus the isobars are clean through to north edge of Hudson Bay

image.thumb.png.1608ac4318ea7e7d1ff6c1954dd8274e.png
It went in to GHP and bitter cold for us.  12 z going same at t108 do I expect the same stonking run

Now look at the ECM...at t144

image.thumb.png.ef9d877269b7dfeceed792a3f8e8c33c.png
 

look at same location, this sees any GHP sink to that locale allowing the trough over Newfoundland to head to re-inforce the trough to SE of Greenland...no locked in cold

BFTP

 

edit...as expected GEM produces stonker as per it’s 0z

image.thumb.png.d3d37bfa9cacee793c67bc9811c2a1a1.png

Edited by BLAST FROM THE PAST
  • Like 6
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
That ECM Maestro

That ECM

Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
Posted

JFF gfs has snow edging in at t180 and at t216 36 hours it’s still going and edging it’s way up the country.

  • Like 5
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
MATTWOLVES 3 Maestro

MATTWOLVES 3

Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
Posted (edited)
3 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Judging from the 72 to 96 hour chart maybe its not all over in regards to the snowline being further south for tuesday on ukmo!!

Corrections Southwards incoming Shaky..its been that kind of Winter..Tuesday and Wednesday most definitely off interest..could be some cracking snow showers towards the East come the end of the week.. and always a chance of disturbances in the flow..some of these could travel well inland also..one to watch for sure.

Edited by MATTWOLVES
  • Like 8
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Chesil View Accomplished

Chesil View

Posted
  • Location: Wyke regis overlooking Chesil beach.
  • Weather Preferences: Snowfall
  • Location: Wyke regis overlooking Chesil beach.
Posted

much better gfs. low over northern italy and trough disruption between 168 and 192.and all very much in line with the latest meto update.

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites
sheikhy Maestro

sheikhy

Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester
Posted
Just now, MATTWOLVES said:

Corrections Southwards incoming Shaky..its been that kind of Winter..Tuesday and Wednesday most definitely off interest..could be some cracking snow showers towards the East come the end of the week.. and always a chance of disturbances in the flow..some if these could travel well inland also..one to watch for sure.

Yeh its caught my eye for now!!hopefully ecm disrupts further for tuesday and then sets up a beauty of an easterly like gfs!!

  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
  • Popular Post
Winter Hill Seasoned

Winter Hill

Posted
  • Location: Horwich, Bolton.. 196m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy snow.. frost. Freezing fog
  • Location: Horwich, Bolton.. 196m asl
  • Popular Post
Posted

Excellent 12z charts. Let’s hope ECM 12z jumps on the bandwagon.

would feel very chilly in the Easterly wind. Bring it on. 
 

my only concern is why IDO has vanished ?

  • Like 13
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Allseasons-Si Maestro

Allseasons-Si

Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
Posted

The parra is further SE with the low...

12z 96 v's 06z 102

gfsnh-0-96.thumb.png.e6faa2d0f588f7b54e7c1abf9958f2bc.pnggfsnh-0-102.thumb.png.08f490ad394a3e1d68684f353e8eadd4.png

  • Like 7
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Scandinavian High. Experienced

Scandinavian High.

Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow freezing rain heat waves
  • Location: Orpington Kent
Posted
6 minutes ago, Snowman. said:

lol

image.thumb.png.d52bd89910096f3c1c42a907137874a0.png

SE and EA can't moan anymore anymore if that come to be.

850s vs lowres 2M temps, in these situations 850 temps aren't everything.

image.thumb.png.18bf1e1c6b37e37c9a899a0f7381d4cd.png image.thumb.png.b05e45d599be151a9d8a234ba1772fb7.png

 

South east England buried

  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted (edited)

Omg..winter is coming guys..just look at the Gfs 12z operational..just look at the Gfs 12z operational...so good I said it twice..!....anyway..over too you Ecm!...oops..some Friday crap posted by mistake..my bad!

556A2ADF-34E9-4F2A-B007-B25ADF03DF49.thumb.png.c26596caa4e8ec4690cc9b585be4e748.png935EA630-D011-4817-BE1A-AF836B8183F4.thumb.png.65e9d4ec82dfb44184102574369dc1df.pngBB2D8CE9-DD8F-4464-B5DE-DDD73E432B12.thumb.png.fba9870d20caa125feec07a40d3c2c24.png46A1B298-8222-4DFF-95A9-A79F0A1F3988.thumb.png.5db192f1b6962230d4cbd89b95bd1854.png8EDE3562-4D5C-4939-A8E5-F4F89AC4A64B.thumb.png.c473c070d6f11c14e3a71c1fa9dcc96f.png

Edited by Jon Snow
  • Like 7
Link to comment
Share on other sites
  • Popular Post
nick sussex Maestro

nick sussex

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Popular Post
Posted
1 minute ago, Tim Bland said:

20cm in parts of the east of this comes off !!!

E3C4007A-747B-4530-98C3-6C1E1FBE1639.png

Is that all ! Lol 

OMG this is so exciting , absolutely made up to see these upgrades . Really hope this delivers for my fellow coldie friends in the UK.

  • Like 39
  • Thanks 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites
  • Popular Post
Battleground Snow Maestro

Battleground Snow

Posted
  • Location: Coventry
  • Location: Coventry
  • Popular Post
Posted

This post may get lost in the GFS euphoria, but the ECM slayer (gem) is looking like it going to be even better than this morning.

Intense high about to develop over Iceland and really draw a deep Easterly in around 174-192

Fantastic runs so far

gemnh-0-150.png

gemnh-1-150.png

  • Like 10
Link to comment
Share on other sites
East_England_Stormchaser91 Veteran

East_England_Stormchaser91

Posted
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Thundery, Cold and Snowy
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
Posted
11 minutes ago, Radiating Dendrite said:

Looks a little Feb 09 easterly - anyone else agree?

More like 31 Dec 1962!! 

  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Allseasons-Si Maestro

Allseasons-Si

Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
Posted

The GEM looses that pesky shortwave N of Scotland and a nice clean flow from the east at 144...

gemnh-0-144.thumb.png.35ad31c35206a305d3eb3050dca6477f.pnggemnh-1-144.thumb.png.ead3643f2bf078a9a709ece7bd1012e3.png

06z.

gemnh-0-150.thumb.png.7c61d30de208c51095af3427f2fe315f.png

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites
That ECM Maestro

That ECM

Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
Posted
1 minute ago, nick sussex said:

Is that all ! Lol 

OMG this is so exciting , absolutely made up to see these upgrades . Really hope this delivers for my fellow coldie friends in the UK.

12 points?

  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Notty Community Regular

Notty

Posted
  • Location: Pontypool, 132m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Extremes
  • Location: Pontypool, 132m ASL
Posted
3 minutes ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

More like 31 Dec 1962!! 

Like this:

image.thumb.png.e3f8ab9665ebad86fd76792532716c0d.png

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
  • Popular Post
Nick F Maestro

Nick F

Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Popular Post
Posted (edited)

Evening. Good to see upgrades from 12z GFS, with regards to sinking that pesky low over Ireland, GEM been bullish throughout with an easterly developing, UKMO looking to go this direction too. Wouldn't worry about anything less palatable past day 10, we are struggling to get consistency past day 5 last few days, but these divergences seem to be resolving in pointing to the easterly developing, just need EC on board now.

Edited by Nick F
  • Like 12
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Captain Shortwave Maestro

Captain Shortwave

Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough
Posted (edited)

GEM develops a similar area of cold pooling to the UKMO, however it disrupts and sinks into the main trough near Spain quite nicely.

anim_xap6.gif
 

Like the GFS, it brings an area of heavy snow into the U.K. from the continent. 

Edited by Captain Shortwave
  • Like 4
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Posted
3 minutes ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

More like 31 Dec 1962!! 

And I remember that... waking-up to what I thought was rain pinging off my bedroom windows -- only to see only the top triangles of fence protruding through the snow!

h850t850eu.png

  • Like 8
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
 Share
Go to topic listing
×
×
  • Create New...