Model output discussion - is the beast awakening?

[Allseasons-Si]

The GEM buries the south...

a few frames on...

 

Edited January 30, 2021 by Allseasons-si

[WelfordRd]

Brilliant GFS however let's not get too excited as in about 2 hours time this place could be the complete opposite. My advice let's not get so euphoric on great charts and not so downbeat on bad runs. That way no one gets burned and we can all stay on point 

Edited January 30, 2021 by WelfordRd

[IDO]

4 minutes ago, Scandinavian High. said:

I wonder if mr crew cold will join the party and also IDO

I think we need some consistency before we get excited. The last four runs for Feb 10:

A high close to the UK seems the consistent feature but variations on that theme from very good to less so?

[Battleground Snow]

3 minutes ago, mulzy said:

Sensational run and looks to maintain the cold past day 10 too!

Edited January 30, 2021 by Battleground Snow

[Allseasons-Si]

GO,...GEM

WOW.

[Djdazzle]

Good start to the 12z runs. Need ECM on board though, and even then it’s only in the semi-reliable.

I want to get excited - but it’s still far too early.

[Jason H]

The bi-polar nature of this thread continues. Variation again on a general theme of cold encroaching from the East/North East. Good operationals so far.

[Griff]

Gem won't be to everyone's tastes towards the end

[bluearmy]

2 minutes ago, IDO said:

I think we need some consistency before we get excited. The last four runs for Feb 10:

A high close to the UK seems the consistent feature but variations on that theme from very good to less so?

Why not look at next weekend (rather than the middle of the following week) which is where gfs and gfsp seem to have consistently found their interest over the past couple, days runs  .....

looking for consistency in ops post day 7/8 is futile 

[bluearmy]

Remeber when ec and gem seemed to so often be on the same page ......

 

[Allseasons-Si]

1 minute ago, Griff said:

Gem won't be to everyone's tastes towards the end

Yeah,... for the mild crew ha ha

final frame...

 

[saintkip]

Best runs of the winter so far, what could possibly go wrong?

[Paul]

2 minutes ago, IDO said:

I think we need some consistency before we get excited. The last four runs for Feb 10:

A high close to the UK seems the consistent feature but variations on that theme from very good to less so?

Hmm, you're expecting consistency on a forecast that is 11/12 days away? How often does that happen?

Would make more sense to look for consistency at closer range, so lets got for next Friday 147 hours away from now. And it's not bad, albeit it's only one model (GFS) and the ECM hasn't been in agreement too often yet. 

      

And the ECM from this morning, for balance - not quite singing off the same hymn sheet. 

[Don]

16 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Is that all ! Lol 

OMG this is so exciting , absolutely made up to see these upgrades . Really hope this delivers for my fellow coldie friends in the UK.

Indeed Nick, just need these upgrades to continue and not bring us down with a bump in the morning!

[winterof79]

GFS // way further North and progressive with everything ,an all Scottish affair so far

Hopefully corrects south over the next 24hrs

Edited January 30, 2021 by winterof79

[Djdazzle]

Feb 1991 - 30 year anniversary?

That GEM run is amazing.

[Griff]

5 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

Yeah,... for the mild crew ha ha

final frame...

 

Needless to say that some distant relative misses out! 

I'm expecting a comment about gem's evolution and longevity. 

Edited January 30, 2021 by Griff

[londonblizzard]

Should be a good GEFS set! The mean already dropping to -8 for London 

[snowice]

18 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Is that all ! Lol 

OMG this is so exciting , absolutely made up to see these upgrades . Really hope this delivers for my fellow coldie friends in the UK.

We will let Gfs in to our Eurovision for one night only DOUZE points.

[IDO]

3 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Why not look at next weekend (rather than the middle of the following week) which is where gfs and gfsp seem to have consistently found their interest over the past couple, days runs  .....

looking for consistency in ops post day 7/8 is futile 

I only picked d10 as it was interesting that four different runs took us to a UK high by d10? All the intrigue pre-d10 and we get to the same focal point? Probably not interesting to everyone but struck a cord with me. 

 

1 minute ago, Paul said:

Hmm, you're expecting consistency on a forecast that is 11/12 days away? How often does that happen?

Would make more sense to look for consistency at closer range, so lets got for next Friday 147 hours away from now. And it's not bad, albeit it's only one model (GFS) and the ECM hasn't been in agreement too often yet. 

   

 

Models go out to d10 plus so I see no problem discussing them. Lots of great commentary on pre-d10 so no point repeating all that!

[winterof79]

The inevitable meets the immovable over the UK

[Allseasons-Si]

3 minutes ago, londonblizzard said:

Should be a good GEFS set! The mean already dropping to -8 for London 

Here are the graphs for London and Sheffield

an upgrade from last nights.

[Don]

1 minute ago, Allseasons-si said:

Here are the graphs for London and Sheffield

an upgrade from last nights.

Look pretty good really, just need the trend to continue and the ECM to join the party.

[Liam J]

Some extreme charts from the 12z GEM.
It goes on to develop severe winter weather conditions! 

Edited January 30, 2021 by DisruptiveGust

[Matt H]

Wow, what a fantastic set of model runs this afternoon so far. Virtually all of the mild outliers have vanished from the GEFS 12z ensemble suite as well with a very clear signal for a cold spell developing from the 6th February onwards now. The mean has even breached -8C for the first time as well with the many of the runs going colder still. Momentum is slowly building in our favour, I just hope the ECM stops messing around this evening.