Model output discussion - is the beast awakening?

[saintkip]

2 minutes ago, Don said:

Look pretty good really, just need the trend to continue and the ECM to join the party.

Pretty good? The mean is nearly minus 10, they’re great

[bluearmy]

7 minutes ago, IDO said:

I only picked d10 as it was interesting that four different runs took us to a UK high by d10? All the intrigue pre-d10 and we get to the same focal point? Probably not interesting to everyone but struck a cord with me. 

 

Models go out to d10 plus so I see no problem discussing them. Lots of great commentary on pre-d10 so no point repeating all that!

Your post gave the impression that excitement should remain muted until we get some consistency 

you posted day 10 charts to illustrate this 

We have good consistency from noaa models at day 7 

now you seem to be saying that all road lead to a U.K. high ......

 Now  this is something that I feel has some basis ! 

[Don]

Just now, saintkip said:

Pretty good? The mean is nearly minus 10, they’re great

Lol yes, I was being modest and trying to stop myself getting too excited! 

[Paul]

7 minutes ago, IDO said:

I only picked d10 as it was interesting that four different runs took us to a UK high by d10? All the intrigue pre-d10 and we get to the same focal point? Probably not interesting to everyone but struck a cord with me. 

 

Models go out to d10 plus so I see no problem discussing them. Lots of great commentary on pre-d10 so no point repeating all that!

No harm discussing them, but I think suggesting that day 10+ charts need to show consistency in the context of either getting excited or not about pre-10 day weather is a tad misleading, which is why I responded.

[Man With Beard]

17 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

The GEM buries the south...

a few frames on...

 

I was drawn to the GEM evolution at D5/D6 - it keeps the low near Ireland spinning, which seems more believable than some of other models that stop the low completely dead - it's rare to see a low with zero momentum.

Of course, the GEM outcome is also to the preference of many on this forum

Still 60/40 in favour of a cold easterly for two or three days IMO - odds considerably less on a long lasting easterly - though they often return later.

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Don’t want to say this again after yesterday’s blunder, but a HUGE ECM run to come this evening, and even bigger runs tomorrow. I can’t see it being worse than yesterday at a worst case scenario, but never write it off too soon. I’ll warn others and myself lol. 

[bluearmy]

3 minutes ago, saintkip said:

Pretty good? The mean is nearly minus 10, they’re great

-10 is half way across the North Sea at its closest ..... not bad for a mean as u say 

Edited January 30, 2021 by bluearmy

[Mike Poole]

Great upgrades this afternoon.  GEM is fantastic, GFS is very good, both have a clean evolution to bring the cold towards us in the day 4-7 period courtesy of the Atlantic high and Arctic high aligning well together,  the // slightly less clean evolution.  

Massive ECM tonight after the last two rather disappointing runs.  

[Gowon]

25 minutes ago, saintkip said:

Prefer the GFS

Really!? The GEM is ridiculously good.

[saintkip]

Just now, D.V.R said:

Really!? The GEM is ridiculously good.

I went early

[Froze were the Days]

No posts about the GFS (p)?...must be a reason 

Onto the ECM, I wonder if it will throw up another head scratching run as per yesterdays 12z? I just wish the meteorological mists would clear so we know roughly where we're going. Supercomputers - nah! not when it comes to blocking and the after effects of a SSW.

[Don]

6 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Massive ECM tonight after the last two rather disappointing runs.  

I said this a few weeks ago in a similar situation, but what's the betting the ECM will produce a stellar run this evening and tomorrow morning, only for the rest of the models to downgrade?!

Edited January 30, 2021 by Don

[bluearmy]

2 minutes ago, Man Without Beard said:

I was drawn to the GEM evolution at D5/D6 - it keeps the low near Ireland spinning, which seems more believable than some of other models that stop the low completely dead - it's rare to see a low with zero momentum.

Of course, the GEM outcome is also to the preference of many on this forum

Still 60/40 in favour of a cold easterly for two or three days IMO - odds considerably less on a long lasting easterly - though they often return later.

that low is going to be a right pain methinks ...... hopefully come tomorrow’s 12z runs it will have sunk away se to allow the easterly in 

as nick pointed out earlier, detached from the jet and with low zonal flow and indeed easterly to the north), it may struggle to get away 

[Don]

1 minute ago, Froze were the Days said:

No posts about the GFS (p)?...must be a reason 

 

It's not the best?

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

3 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

that low is going to be a right pain methinks ...... hopefully come tomorrow’s 12z runs it will have sunk away se to allow the easterly in 

as nick pointed out earlier, detached from the jet and with low zonal flow and indeed easterly to the north), it may struggle to get away 

A very fine line between it being our foe or a very good friend. If it engages with the forecasted development of an Iberian low, then it will be game on. We need it to be South of the UK preferably and sink, or to scoot away to the E quicker. 

Edited January 30, 2021 by East_England_Stormchaser91

[Griff]

GFSp looks like it might cause a wobble here... 

[Man With Beard]

Despite not shifting on the low by D7, the air is so cold to the north on the GFSP, it's wrapped itself round the bothersome low 

 

[Steady Easterly]

Some wonderful deep Winter charts this evening, the GEM run would produce Severe conditions that would be remembered for many a year, just once please let it be.

[beefy201]

Think they are called models for a reason ... they can dress up and look amazing to the naked eye but once they have been on a couple of runs they not looking so good  

[Don]

2 minutes ago, Griff said:

GFSp looks like it might cause a wobble here... 

I don't think it should be shown lol!  Well, perhaps not until the 18z? 

[Kentspur]

27 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

GO,...GEM

WOW.

Can see why NAO looks to go a little positive  with all that low pressure out West. Goes to show u can still have cold weather even with a +NAO

[Man With Beard]

3 minutes ago, Griff said:

GFSp looks like it might cause a wobble here... 

If the GFSP is being considered a poor run, we're in a pretty good place 

[feb1991blizzard]

So after all that, this is what we are left with after a glancing blow Easterly where the 500mb heights get nowhere near 520 at the same time there's decent uppers.

Gutted - absolutely gutted.

[Battleground Snow]

The para is okay, it just takes 24 hours more to clear the low over us, would be snowy still, especially if the low from greenland drops near Ireland... The ECM did something similar the other day

As long as the area circled maintains heights it will be good 

 

Edited January 30, 2021 by Battleground Snow

[phil nw.]

It's good to see the cold coming south not day 10 as often the case but from day 6 on all the runs so far.

Once that low complex moves south there's only one way it can go.

That large block of deep cold heading south west.Already into N.England by day 5.