Model output discussion - is the beast awakening?

[phil nw.]

The coming few days were always modeled as marginal with the boundary moving north and south. 

Despite the ups and downs of the operational runs the means for a colder spell at the end of next week are pretty consistent. 

The T168 gefs looks OK to me. 

 

 

[Nick F]

1 hour ago, dallas said:

Nick, do we need this low to dissappear or move S/E?

Move S or SE ideally but with high pressure building to the N too.

[Singularity]

Worth noting that the scenarios with a big low to the south drawing near or even above zero 850s around from the southeast still tend to maintain a sufficiently cold easterly flow beneath for snowfall.

That’s about as much as I have to say at this time with such model shenanigans over just how the low by the UK moves, the Arctic High aligns and the polar jet out of the USA behaves. Too many major parts jostling about!

[ribster]

Good grief, I think we all get the D10 message...

[SLEETY]

ecm and gfs op were mildest solution towards end of next week,lots of ensembles are 12 c colder for next thurs and friday than the op.Crazy diiference!

Confusion or what,and posters saying cold spell not happening,well thats  not the case either,far from it infact.

Maybe just ignore the models at the moment and go with the Met,they use other tools like mogreps etc

 

 

Edited January 30, 2021 by SLEETY

[Vikos]

41 minutes ago, Cold Winter Night said:

Not being an early bird, like some on here, I always quickly look out the morning model output in its entirety, before I go on this thread to read comments.

My impression of the output this morning: All is well, an improvement on the 12z's. Especially up to +144h, and that is what matters most.
Then I go here and I see the usual whining and complaining. What a surprise.
Let me be clear, EC Op is not exciting in the later timeframes, neither is GFS in deep FI, but in the ensemble EC Op is at the mildest end for day 6-9.

The models are clearly struggling. An uncooperative low on the Atlantic at 72h-96h (without much forcing) and an Arctic High that is always difficult to track (with insufficient data input in the Arctic area), guarantee uncertainty. Tiny differences there have a huge impact later.
FI is at 120h at most, I would say.

If you would have looked no further than 144h for the past few days, you would have seen upgrades and you would have been excited about all the possibilities after 144h, instead of being disappointed about FI charts that did not verify.

Very right words!

Problem is, that some in here are building up an (mostly irrational) tension and thrill with inflationary posting every single chart of every single model run there is, in a stakkto'ish phasing with words like "BOOM" and lots of emoticons, mostly for charts that are past the magic timeline of +168h. This naturally ends in either deep depression or over-excitment with the next set of runs.

EC is looking good at their cluster analysies and still no need to worry about, alot of small pattern changes, can be butterfly flaps with different outcomes localy, but overall still very wintry and cold. No signgs of dramtic and prolonged mild or even spring

[SqueakheartLW]

A nice little update on the 06z GFS

First I have the average of the ensembles charts at 186 hours, the peak of the colder spell on the 06z

Still average easterlies but now more for the south of the UK whilst northern parts looks like they are now more high pressure dominated. This very likely to reduce snow chances over cold and frost chances instead and combined with a new low average 850hpa temperature of -9.0 this means an even greater chance of cold now. This is -6.9 below the long term mean. On the anomaly chart I have noticed how that warmer area near Iceland and Greenland has been creeping closer to us every run which maybe isn't such a good sign and could be a signal that the pattern could collapse much quicker than expected.

Top 3 mildest charts at 186 hours away

3rd     Member 23     850hpa temp -5.7

This comes up 3rd mildest at the peak of the cold spell but it isn't really that mild with uppers below -5 over most of the UK. Generally high pressure dominated so dry and cold here. Could be a retrogression of the Scandi high taking place here which could open the doors to a reload of the cold from the north

2nd     Member 3     850hpa temp -3.6

This is a more typical mild setup with low pressure to the NW and high pressure to the south but the uppers are still on average below the mean. A warm sector looks as if it is on the way to warm things up a bit more

1st     Member 26     850hpa temp -3.5

The mildest of the members at 186 hours away is Member 26 with a 850hpa temperature at the dizzy heights of -3.5, not that mild really. Under high pressure so maybe less mild on the surface than the previous option.

Top 3 coldest charts at 186 hours away

3rd     Member 30     850hpa temp -12.6

A very cold gentle easterly flow here which may bring a snow shower risk to the E but high pressure not far away so the risk not that great. More frost and cold than snow here

2nd     Member 5     850hpa temp -12.7

Even more high pressure dominated 2nd position option with very cold -12.7 uppers. Snow most likely in the south here with cold and dry everywhere else.

1st     Member 15     850hpa temp -13.1

Number 1 and top spot gets the honours and Member 15 takes this glory as the coldest member at 186 hours away. It is also the best setup of the top 3 for snow with a more beasterly pattern pushing snow showers in from off the North Sea and with very cold uppers of -13.1 then this could produce some heavier showers.

Closest to the average of -9.0 charts (Range -8.7 to -9.3)

Operational Run     850hpa temp -8.7

A whole variety of situations showing up in the close to the ensemble average charts. The operational run is like a watered down version of Member 15 with a beasterly pattern but just with less cold uppers. Still a snow shower making setup but probably less heavy showers with less cold uppers supporting the convection.

Member 10     850hpa temp -8.7

Member 10 looks like a cold slack pattern with no domination by high or low pressure really. Could be dry and cold or cold and cloudy or even stuck in freezing fog here. Any snow likely to be reserved for the far south and far north nearest to the two areas of lower pressure.

Member 2     850hpa temp -9.1

Member 2 looks like a transition period where high pressure is retrogressing towards Iceland and Greenland and so opening the doors to an Arctic northerly. With cold air in place already then this looks like an easterly that got cut off by the retrogression and a new wave of cold is about to arrive.

Member 9     850hpa temp -9.2

A southern UK beasterly option here with Member 9. Most likely snow showers in England and Wales with Scotland and NI mainly dry and cold. The heaviest snow most likely in SE England.

Member 24     850hpa temp -9.2

A more widespread beasterly version of the above so very much the same pattern just with the exception that the snow risk extends further northwards.

Finally for some fun the dreaded mildest chart of the 06z then the coldest chart of the 06z

Dreaded Mild Chart     Member 15     +348 hours     850hpa temp 6.1

The worst possible chart in terms of 850hpa temperatures goes to Member 15 at 348 hours away, shame on you Member 15. After giving us the glory of the coldest chart at 186 hours away you let yourself down by doing this to us at 348 hours. Low pressure is dominating here and we are currently under the influence of a warm sector which explains the such high 850hpa temp of 6.1. Not the best pattern to see in winter but then we can't have it cold all the time.

Fantasy Cold Chart     Member 3     +312 hours     850hpa temp -15.1

Member 3 gets the last word in this post with taking the glory of the coldest chart of the 06z at 312 hours away, good on you Member 3. A large area of high pressure has parked itself just out in the Atlantic south of Iceland and this is causing very cold air to come down from the NE into the UK with uppers getting down to -15.1. No doubt snow is a major factor here and could be quite heavy in the N and E especially.

[Frosty.]

Is this some kind of pregnant pause?..hmm. No posts for 36 mins?...anyway, the GEFS 6z mean shows there’s a cold spell on the way..perhaps very cold??..with plenty of other model support!

Edited January 30, 2021 by Jon Snow

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Nothing marginal about some of these beauties  

[Lord Grogon]

Quiet in here this afternoon. Not unexpected given the uncertainty at the moment.

If anybody is feeling bored, but helpful, I have a curious itch that needs a good scratch please.

I often hear references to “that ECM”. I gather it was some sort of predicted Easterly around 2012 that never happened. I’d be interested to know more about it. At what timescale did it change. Was it a sudden change or death by a thousand downgrades? How did it align with the other models? I gather is must be a big deal here. After all, a poster has even named themselves after it!

Any references or links would be most welcome. 
 

I know it’s a sad request, but it’s been chucking it down all day (rain) and I’m after something interesting to read about.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

I'm  not sure why some are down in here today..the best sypnotics for several years,another warming in affect with the potential of the Wintry conditions lasting well into February! Even the Met update screams of significant snowfall risk on the boundary of cold and milder airmasses..And Eastern parts look in the firing line for some convection and very cold winds...unfortunately when it comes to snow,regardless of the stpnotics,not all places will benefit. Even the 2018 event I heard many saying it was a disappointment because the bulk of the snow got diverted to Southern Ireland! Plenty of scope to be excited and much uncertainty in the forecast for the next 3 or 4 days,let alone the 10 day period..chin up folks we are much better placed than last year.

Edited January 30, 2021 by MATTWOLVES

[Chesil View]

10 minutes ago, Lord Grogon said:

Quiet in here this afternoon. Not unexpected given the uncertainty at the moment.

If anybody is feeling bored, but helpful, I have a curious itch that needs a good scratch please.

I often hear references to “that ECM”. I gather it was some sort of predicted Easterly around 2012 that never happened. I’d be interested to know more about it. At what timescale did it change. Was it a sudden change or death by a thousand downgrades? How did it align with the other models? I gather is must be a big deal here. After all, a poster has even named themselves after it!

Any references or links would be most welcome. 
 

I know it’s a sad request, but it’s been chucking it down all day (rain) and I’m after something interesting to read about.

From memory ( which might be wrong) but as I remember it it was the ecm steadfastly predicting something along the lines of a long fetch 50mph easterly that went up in smoke about a day and half out of from landing

[sunnijim]

12 minutes ago, Lord Grogon said:

Quiet in here this afternoon. Not unexpected given the uncertainty at the moment.

If anybody is feeling bored, but helpful, I have a curious itch that needs a good scratch please.

I often hear references to “that ECM”. I gather it was some sort of predicted Easterly around 2012 that never happened. I’d be interested to know more about it. At what timescale did it change. Was it a sudden change or death by a thousand downgrades? How did it align with the other models? I gather is must be a big deal here. After all, a poster has even named themselves after it!

Any references or links would be most welcome. 
 

I know it’s a sad request, but it’s been chucking it down all day (rain) and I’m after something interesting to read about.

Others will provide you with charts and greater clarity than me I'm sure,but I do remember watching it unfold.

I think we had a 'nailed Easterly' with it 'all singing and dancing' in terms of potential.

I think it was consistent up to 72hrs? Before a massive downgrade.

I can't remember if the other models were in agreement at the time? Somthing I would like answered.

[Andypvfc]

3 hours ago, Griff said:

Oh no, models are terrible this morning, will it snow in 10 days over my auntie's lighthouse?

We are a right bunch aren't we! 

First time I've been on the mod thread after quite a few references to the drama of it, on the regional ones.

All I want know is, if Stoke / Cheshire is set for a decent Snow events without any toys hitting me

[legritter]

3 minutes ago, Lord Grogon said:

Quiet in here this afternoon. Not unexpected given the uncertainty at the moment.

If anybody is feeling bored, but helpful, I have a curious itch that needs a good scratch please.

I often hear references to “that ECM”. I gather it was some sort of predicted Easterly around 2012 that never happened. I’d be interested to know more about it. At what timescale did it change. Was it a sudden change or death by a thousand downgrades? How did it align with the other models? I gather is must be a big deal here. After all, a poster has even named themselves after it!

Any references or links would be most welcome. 
 

I know it’s a sad request, but it’s been chucking it down all day (rain) and I’m after something interesting to read about.

Hi gang ,i study the charts every day, i also use the Met office update to get a mental vision of their thinking, todays update is good reading .Looking forward to tonights charts ,hope someone can help Lord Grogon out with the request .whats posters thoughts on the possible evolution with the low pressure sinking south nxt week , im hoping we can all or most of us get cold air undercutting the trough with a good amount of precipitation, boxing day 1962 type would be great ,but not quite the same synoptics i know ,we can all dream .cheers gang ,sausage baps are back on tbe menu if ECM joins the party . 

 

[phil nw.]

A bit of an ensemble watch and a look at the 850 gefs 06z graph for Warks.

Good agreement this far south that milder air moves north from  2-4th and then we see the dip to cold.The Op actually a little slower than the majority in cold returning but essentially by the 6th it's here.

Then comes a wide spread on the longevity and uppers.The odd one shows it could end within 24 hrs or quite a number show this evolve into a longer spell.

We have members heading for +5c and down to _13/14c the following week.Having said that the majority remain below 0c so based on these you would have to favour a below average trend at least.

[Captain Shortwave]

A little bit of musing for any potential cold from the east given the current modelling uncertainty.

I will use the UKMO day 6 chart, but the rest are similar in the placement of the main players in this scene.

low pressure over the U.K. with high pressure building to the north of the U.K.

I must admit to feeling a little dubious with the ECM this morning with that low crawling eastwards. I would be leaning more towards the low filling and sinking southwards in this scenario to sit within that trough digging south of Iberia. This in itself would produce an easterly flow on the northern flank of the low.

The second issue will be the degree of cold air advection moving west/south west around the south flank of the developing high to our north. Usually there should be some improvements in this the closer to the event we get, not a rush of cold/unstable air but a steadier bleed of cold air feeding from the Baltic Sea towards us. I guess putting these together would put me in the GFS camp for how this might evolve (Though the low to the south probably blows up a little too much, I am not expecting easterly gales in the south).

So as we move towards the next set of runs, I am leaning towards an easterly solution prevailing once the uncertainty dies down. However the depth of cold and 500mb heights are still uncertain. As such we could see a snowy set up develop, but equally if the set up is more stable with insufficient depth of cold then we could easily end up with a cold and cloudy set up with merely a few snow grains as our reward. This risk from an easterly only increases as we move through winter as the North Sea continues to cool.

[Chesil View]

10 minutes ago, Lord Grogon said:

Quiet in here this afternoon. Not unexpected given the uncertainty at the moment.

If anybody is feeling bored, but helpful, I have a curious itch that needs a good scratch please.

I often hear references to “that ECM”. I gather it was some sort of predicted Easterly around 2012 that never happened. I’d be interested to know more about it. At what timescale did it change. Was it a sudden change or death by a thousand downgrades? How did it align with the other models? I gather is must be a big deal here. After all, a poster has even named themselves after it!

Any references or links would be most welcome. 
 

I know it’s a sad request, but it’s been chucking it down all day (rain) and I’m after something interesting to read about.

From memory ( which might be wrong) but as I remember it it was the ecm steadfastly predicting something along the lines of a long fetch 50mph easterly that went up in smoke about a day and half out of from landing

[JoeShmoe]

The 06z GFS snow viewer has it snowing in central Scotland from 0300 Tues to 1200 Fri 

[nick sussex]

20 minutes ago, JoeShmoe said:

The 06z GFS snow viewer has it snowing in central Scotland from 0300 Tues to 1200 Fri 

You say that as if it’s a bad thing . Lol Most coldies in here would be breaking open the champagne if that happened in their area .

Theres no such thing as too much snow ! 

[phil nw.]

52 minutes ago, Lord Grogon said:

Quiet in here this afternoon. Not unexpected given the uncertainty at the moment.

If anybody is feeling bored, but helpful, I have a curious itch that needs a good scratch please.

I often hear references to “that ECM”. I gather it was some sort of predicted Easterly around 2012 that never happened. I’d be interested to know more about it. At what timescale did it change. Was it a sudden change or death by a thousand downgrades? How did it align with the other models? I gather is must be a big deal here. After all, a poster has even named themselves after it!

Any references or links would be most welcome. 
 

I know it’s a sad request, but it’s been chucking it down all day (rain) and I’m after something interesting to read about.

This may be the thread from early 2012

I had a quick read several pages in when an easterly was in the modeling at the time.It may not be the one but worth a look perhaps.

The Model output archives are here if anyone wishes to search back for anything of interest from years gone by.

 https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/162-model-discussion-archive/

 

[Purga]

Looks like UKMET are even more bullish than yesterday about an extended cold spell from the east,

[danm]

3 minutes ago, phil nw. said:

This may be the thread from early 2012

I had a quick read several pages in when an easterly was in the modeling at the time.It may not be the one but worth a look perhaps.

The Model output archives are here if anyone wishes to search back for anything of interest from years gone by.

 https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/162-model-discussion-archive/

 

Wasn’t “that ECM” from December 2012?

[phil nw.]

2 minutes ago, danm said:

Wasn’t “that ECM” from December 2012?

You could be correct.

I wasn't sure when i posted the one i did.I am sure someone will turn it up using the archive link.

[Timmytour]

59 minutes ago, Lord Grogon said:

Quiet in here this afternoon. Not unexpected given the uncertainty at the moment.

If anybody is feeling bored, but helpful, I have a curious itch that needs a good scratch please.

I often hear references to “that ECM”. I gather it was some sort of predicted Easterly around 2012 that never happened. I’d be interested to know more about it. At what timescale did it change. Was it a sudden change or death by a thousand downgrades? How did it align with the other models? I gather is must be a big deal here. After all, a poster has even named themselves after it!

Any references or links would be most welcome. 
 

I know it’s a sad request, but it’s been chucking it down all day (rain) and I’m after something interesting to read about.

My recollection was that just after Christmas only the ECM was not promising us the winter nirvana that all the other models were predicting was on its way from T96.  Then all of a sudden it delivered the run of all runs to get itself firmly on board and provide model agreement across the board.  That lasted until the next GFS run which was poor and derided until all the other models took its lead!

A huge disappointment and some wrote off winter at that point, but we went on to enjoy some good snowy periods in the following month  and of course March 2013 proved to be a belter!