Model output discussion - is the beast awakening?

[tight isobar]

Next frame #### or bust

[Tim Bland]

Looks good to me ...

Edited January 30, 2021 by Tim Bland

[northwestsnow]

Horrible EC out to 144...

Really don't want more rain.. 

[Drifter]

ECM - joke model.  Floundering all over the shop. 

Edited January 30, 2021 by Drifter

[winterof79]

Gfs 144

UKMO

ECM

GEM

Draw your own conclusions but ECM is clawing its way back

[northwestsnow]

Edit.

Much improved at 168 though.

 

[Mike Poole]

Cold barges on through regardless of the low it seems on T168, although maybe some detail missed in the 24 hr time step.  And we’re cold:

[Froze were the Days]

96h to 120h on the ecm simply doesn't change, I had to look that I had moved the mouse!...give me strength, you can see that low being a right god dam spoiler.

[Snowman.]

Just now, Tim Bland said:

Looks good to me ...

Just a bit naff when compared to the GFS and GEM, 

It is impossible to get a decent cold feed from Europe unless that trough sinks south.

[tight isobar]

Sets up a fabbled northerly...rapidly becoming the Bernard manning model...

Edited January 30, 2021 by tight isobar

[sheikhy]

Guys lets not sugar coat this ecm is crap in the most important time frame!low just hangs around the uk for an age!!!

[northwestsnow]

Possibly a slider at day 8...

 

[TSNWK]

ECM certainly been on the sauce early tonight.  Wandering its own merry way.

Just drop you bugger. PS uppers are good -8 across the bulk

 

[Johnp]

Just now, northwestsnow said:

Possibly a slider at day 8...

 

Or a phasing disaster leaving us stranded to the south of the real cold. 

[sheikhy]

Rapidly changes at 168 hours!!very good!wana see it earlier though!!ecm playin catch up with gfs?!!happened a few weeks ago?!

[Griff]

All the latest runs at 144, everyone seems a bit calmer this evening.

[Allseasons-Si]

The ECM will be good from 168,...trust me.

Griceland high in place should keep things rosey.

 

[Griff]

Just now, sheikhy said:

Rapidly changes at 168 hours!!very good!wana see it earlier though!!ecm playin catch up with gfs?!!happened a few weeks ago?!

A few times already this year. 

[Mr snowman 2018]

We needed the ECM to follow the GFS on the 12z and it simply hasn’t I have a feeling this will go wrong now as we need all models to come into agreement it’s when they don’t it sends alarm bells ringing for me !

[Snowman.]

Just now, Allseasons-si said:

The ECM will be good from 168,...trust me.

Griceland high in place should keep things rosey.

 

Which I had your confidence, with the ECM's current mood I'm feeling a phasing disaster!

[Stu_London]

1 minute ago, Griff said:

All the latest runs at 144, everyone seems a bit calmer this evening.

Dont mind any of them GEM best , ECM least good

[Johnp]

Who's feeling nervous for the next frame?

[Radiating Dendrite]

Just now, Mr snowman 2018 said:

We needed the ECM to follow the GFS on the 12z and it simply hasn’t I have a feeling this will go wrong now as we need all models to come into agreement it’s when they don’t it sends alarm bells ringing for me !

The models don't control the weather, they simply to try to show the most likely outcome.

[Cloud 10]

12z ECM 168 hrs compared to yesterdays 192hrs.....

 

Chocolate teapot.

 

 

 

[Griff]

1 minute ago, Mr snowman 2018 said:

We needed the ECM to follow the GFS on the 12z and it simply hasn’t I have a feeling this will go wrong now as we need all models to come into agreement it’s when they don’t it sends alarm bells ringing for me !

Ask yourself has the pattern from last night been arrested and is it closer to the other models now?