Model output discussion - is the beast awakening?

[snowice]

1 minute ago, Djdazzle said:

I wish people would stop the “it’s for the bin” comments.

The ECM is a perfectly plausible outcome.

Height at 144 over scandinavia and the low goes north east and stalls ,other models have it going SE .It is  like an unwanted guest at a party and dose not look correct in my opinion.

[Tim Bland]

probably academic as it is slowly moving toward other models ..but if ECM is worst case scenario, is still not that bad, low could slide properly and bring in an easterly but even at that trajectory / latitude it has snow for many ...

[Frosty.]

I don’t normally comment on a run in progress for fear of ending up sounding like a horses ass...butt....the ECM 12z T+168 doesn’t look to bad!?..ach..I’ve seen worse

 

 

Edited January 30, 2021 by Jon Snow

[Djdazzle]

1 minute ago, snowice said:

Height at 144 over scandinavia and the low goes north east and stalls ,other models have it going SE .It is  like an unwanted guest at a party and dose not look correct in my opinion.

Agreed but it could be correct. Hope not though.

[winterof79]

Hate the ECM evolution but it still produces another dumping. Lol

[Stu_London]

2 minutes ago, That ECM said:

T120 all 3.  T144 all 3. It is between these times where it changes. Tomorrow morning will sort it out.

I'd say ECM is going pear shaped at 120 to be honest - not enough northern heights - it might be right and the others wrong - probably not a huge amount of data from that area. 

[chionomaniac]

A couple of things regarding the ECM. This year it has been guilty of under amplifying the Atlantic. It took the longest to spot the possibility of a Greenland High. We have no consistency run to run either. The Arctic high is difficult to model, as is weak high pressure to the North.

The ECM has (historically) notoriously advertised Scandinavia blocks at day 10, that get weaker and weaker and dissipate by T+24. So, in a way it is better to see it flustering around and seeing changes within day 5, than hoping to see snowmaggedon charts at day 10. Small changes at this timeframe will have far bigger repercussions in the coming days.

And to edit, I still feel that it has the look of a loaded gun in the later stages, that will fire with those smaller changes in the earlier output.

Edited January 30, 2021 by chionomaniac

[Snowman.]

2 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

What's wrong with the ECM at 192!!!

heights in place to the north/northwest with trough dropping SE and cold air coming in from the NE.

TOTALLY AGAINST THE OTHER MODELS THOUGH so should we bin it?

Because if the ECM is correct we have delayed cold by possibly 4 days, thats 4 days for everything to go wrong and it end being delayed again or indefinetly. The GFS has the -8 clearing by T168 the ECM can't muster the strength to get it into the midlands.

Poor run.

FI is 72-96 range.

[Mr snowman 2018]

Problem is I can’t remember a winter with such a negative Ao and a negative nao since the 1st of December not delivering anything substantial 2018 and 2010 both delivered the UK seems to be cursed when it comes to decent cold spells all the background signals have been there for nearly 2 months and nothing exceptional has happened !

[nick sussex]

Say no to slush . 

The ECM is poor and the only positive is its atrocious continuity . 

Regardless of what it does post day 6 , it’s close to not even delivering slush given it’s close to a phasing calamity earlier .

 

[MKN]

Just now, winterof79 said:

Hate the ECM evolution but it still produces another dumping. Lol

Still an abysmal run in comparison to The gfs if cold and snow is what your after. 

[Stu_London]

1 minute ago, winterof79 said:

Hate the ECM evolution but it still produces another dumping. Lol

of rain for the south LOL

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Better by ECM and moved in right direction.  
 

It doesn’t quite get there but less movement of the trough from Newfoundland towards the SE tip of Greenland.

If the idea is right and that GEM and UKMO etc are right I’m not concerned the ECM hasn’t suddenly shown the same yet, the fact it’s moved towards is enough. I think in a couple of days we’ll be very knowing where we head.

 

BFTP

 

 

Edited January 30, 2021 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[Stu_London]

2 minutes ago, MKN said:

Still an abysmal run in comparison to The gfs if cold and snow is what your after. 

Not the best - but if you are looking for trends in one model - it is a positive step forward from this morning.

The fact that is it flip flopping indicates to me that it is struggling

Edited January 30, 2021 by Stu_London

[KTtom]

Its like spending 216 hours in a maze and you end up where you started !

 

[Froze were the Days]

Well 240h turned out a bit better than thought...but still lack of any deep cold, still underwhelming run.

[joggs]

Ecm has been poor imo in the main this winter but could be right if its sticking to its guns. If it backtracks..........massive egg on face.

Time will tell.

Edited January 30, 2021 by joggs

[sebastiaan1973]

EC-oper looks like the control-run of this morning output. Hopefully it's wrong.

[SLEETY]

No ice days or decent snow from this crud ECM,just more of the same that we have had this winter,good for higher elevations and marginal events for others,pass the sick bag.

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

Every option is on the table until say Tuesday when we find out where the low heights are headed. Hopefully to the South allowing a cold easterly feed to develop.

Until then expect a lot of chopping and changing from the models for better or worse!

[Daniel*]

I’ve seen it several times of years ECM losing scent giving a major scare only to go back to consensus bit by bit, I don’t like ECM 12z but it’s an second successive improvement earlier on following that awful 12z these improvements eventually add up. 120-144 is as far as we can realistically look right now, we’re wasting our time analysing what comes after until that is determined. 

[kold weather]

ECM will probably get there in the end but the south really does struggle all run, though still probably several snow events for those in the Midlands and north.

So for all those who are hoping the eCM is wrong, one nugget of hope from my observation over many years

It does not cope well with cutoff lows that get left in the flow. More often than not it spins them in place for too long instead of ejecting them eastwards. I've observed this in about the last 15 years of tropics watching where such features can make a huge impact on tracks and its a well known left bias that the Americans see alot, and I have no doubt it applies here as well.

Conversely the GFS is often a little too quick, which if you look at the ensembles you can kind of see that in action. The OP mind you looks more reasonable to me.

So where does that leave us. I'm suggesting that I don't thin the LP is just going to sit and sit over us like the ECM is suggesting. Not to say its totally wrong, but its taking way too long to shift the LP out of the way which then allows it to connect with whatever is going on in the Atlantic and basically shuts the door for alot of the south when it comes to snow chances. Doesn't really damage the norths chances though.

So the ECM may not be just a 'bin' run per say as it is a plausable outcome, BUT it is very much on the far end in terms of what a realistic solution looks like, in much the same way as some of the GFS ensembles clearing an easterly by Wednesday are too quick.

EDIT - I agree with Chino btw, the ECM post 240hrs has a real solid look to me, I think it'd get there in the end! Just another 3-5 day wait is not what we want now.

Edited January 30, 2021 by kold weather

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

To sum up the ECM, it’s off the post and then in  all roads lead to cold as it stands. 

[Purga]

The only consistent thing about ECM is the inconsistency.

Go Compare (this is not an advert!)

0z                                                                      12z

[Jason H]

1 minute ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

To sum up the ECM, it’s off the post and then in  all roads lead to cold as it stands. 

Agreed. ECM continues along its own path towards cold. Not 1963 by any standards, but is this likely?