Model output discussion - is the beast awakening?

[supernova]

Liking where the Para is heading....

Edit: Deep cold encroaching next Sunday and finally slipping away the following weekend but a frigid week in between. Too far out to have any real faith but by no means shoddy.

Edited January 30, 2021 by supernova
Updated

[Methuselah]

27 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

So after all that, this is what we are left with after a glancing blow Easterly where the 500mb heights get nowhere near 520 at the same time there's decent uppers.

Gutted - absolutely gutted.

Hey feb, come on, mate -- the latest GFS suggests something like a weeks' cold and snow? And, as someone kindly pointed-out to me, only yesterday, would we rather be seeing last-year's charts?

[Tim Bland]

I’ll probably jinx it but I can’t see the ECM failing to bring the cold in from the north east next weekend looking at these ensembles for London!... 

[Timmytour]

Nice 12z set so far....ECM can either spoil the party or really get it going.   Mind you, waiting for it to get on board and then seeing it get on board can be a prelude to disaster as those with memories of That ECM will recall!

One thing I think is pretty nailed on that is we are in for a pattern of weather that is really going to be fantastic for the Scottish ski industry with plenty of snow and.....oh...wait.....damn!  Seriously, to finally get the kind of weather the industry could only dream about having, only for it to happen in the current lockdown circumstances must be devastating for the people in it!

 

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

1 hour ago, Griff said:

Needless to say that some distant relative misses out! 

I'm expecting a comment about gem's evolution and longevity. 

It’s a reversal of GW run

BFTP

 

[Notty]

3 minutes ago, Timmytour said:

Nice 12z set so far....ECM can either spoil the party or really get it going.   Mind you, waiting for it to get on board and then seeing it get on board can be a prelude to disaster as those with memories of That ECM will recall!

One thing I think is pretty nailed on that is we are in for a pattern of weather that is really going to be fantastic for the Scottish ski industry with plenty of snow and.....oh...wait.....damn!  Seriously, to finally get the kind of weather the industry could only dream about having, only for it to happen in the current lockdown circumstances must be devastating for the people in it!

 

Pert 12 please:

[tight isobar]

12z. and the easterly=likely delayed via output as the evolution gets to grips..AGAIN..a surface easterly by Thursday...then the show is on!!!..keep watching....

 

 

Edit: -the ecm should be of evolutionary delight tonight!!!??..as we are into the corridor stage...and miss firing should reverse...@no pun intended.....

Edited January 30, 2021 by tight isobar

[sheikhy]

This is it ecm!!!!your chance to be a good boy and join the cold weather lovers on this forum...!!!!

[Jason H]

2 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

This is it ecm!!!!your chance to be a good boy and join the cold weather lovers on this forum...!!!!

I admire your enthusiasm for a computer generated algorithm. I'd be surprised if the ECM deviated from a cold outlook. But remember, it is one run from a number of ensemble members. Look at the output with that in mind and that this specific run could be a warmer run from the pack, or even a colder run. That being said, I do like the running commentaries that people do as the models come out step by step. Most entertaining.

[Don]

7 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

This is it ecm!!!!your chance to be a good boy and join the cold weather lovers on this forum...!!!!

Yeah ECM, it's Saturday night so please join in the fun!

Edited January 30, 2021 by Don

[Notty]

5 minutes ago, Don said:

Yeah ECM, it's Saturday night so please join in the fun!

Somebody buy it a drink !

[Don]

Just now, Notty said:

Somebody buy it a drink !

Double vodka and red bull should do it!

[Blessed Weather]

Several off topic posts moved to the Moans/Chat thread, link below. This is a very interesting period of model watching and the thread is very busy. It's a shame when informative posts disappear in a flood of non-model chat, so can we please keep to model output discussions in here. Thank you.

 

[Jono E]

Someone’s knocking on the door (the beast)

Somebody’s ringing the bell (the beast) 

Do me a favour (ECM) open the door ..... and let him in ?️.....

[Battleground Snow]

ECM already looking better around ESB and the Arctic at 96.

[Tim Bland]

ECM t96 squeaky bum time...

[sheikhy]

Ecm out to 96 hours!!!!subtle differences to gfs!!!prefer ukmo at 96 hours though!

[Snowman.]

ECM Yesterday 12z

Todays

Edited January 30, 2021 by Snowman.

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Bringing Svalbard heights back into the equation. Better already. Can feel the tension in here at the moment!! 

[TSNWK]

2 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

ECM t96 squeaky bum time...

Drop you bugger.  Drop at 144 and let's party like it's 1999. 

[Djdazzle]

Just now, TSNWK said:

Drop you bugger.  Drop at 144 and let's party like it's 1999. 

No thanks - that was a rubbish winter!

[Lampostwatcher]

European computer model 

Says boom boom boom ❄❄❄

[winterof79]

First hurdle done

[Mike Poole]

Looking at arctic high, ECM actually looks closer  to link up at T92 than GEM, shortwave not in the way, but the atlantic ridge is weaker  That’s not the whole story of course, but it is where ECM 12z yesterday went off the rails:

Edited January 30, 2021 by Mike Poole

[Mucka]

ECM is the new NAVGEM