Model output discussion - deep cold inbound?

[chris55]

GEM a lot cleaner at day 5, GFS does seem to be overdoing things a bit with regards to the troughing to the south.

Edited February 2, 2021 by chris55

[Gowon]

GEM 120 - that's better 

[Liam J]

1070mb Greenland high on the GEM at t114! Easterly established. 

[Badgers01]

1 minute ago, chris55 said:

GFS following its 6z suite with milder uppers in the south. Its a very messy picture mind.

the strong signal for cold seems to be being diluted 

[Man With Beard]

While the GFS may be up to its old tricks with low pressure D4/D5, we'll just have to wait and see. To be fair to the GFS, in Feb 2018, it was the first model to predict low pressure rising from Iberia and then spinning the wrong way back into the Atlantic - brought a dumping of snow to the SW but ultimately responsible for a quicker end to the "beast". This is similar but about 300 miles further north. I'll think we'll know for sure tomorrow sometime.

[ITSY]

So it's GFS + GEFS against UKMO + GEM for now, with ECM still to come out. ICON is a halfway house between both camps. 

So we're no clearer if you're in the South. 

Await the parallel, await the ECMWF. 

Then look at what the pros say. 

Then make a guess. 

It's just weather guys. 

[Snowman.]

Gem is a beauty.

Look out for that channel low I'm telling ya!

[ICE COLD]

Gem is on it like a car bonnet

Edited February 2, 2021 by ICE COLD

[chris55]

GEM really getting that cold feed going!

[Don]

2 minutes ago, Badgers01 said:

the strong signal for cold seems to be being diluted 

Still too early to say I think.  This is certainly a bumpy ride!

Edited February 2, 2021 by Don

[Battleground Snow]

GFS almost an outlier AGAIN

 

[Singularity]

If you compare the 12z UKMO (left & right) with the 00z ECM (middle), even with the 12 hour time differences either side, you can see that UKMO moved the Euro low east a bit quicker, meaning less of an interaction with the UK low.

That's all I can find that explains UKMO not bringing in as much of the cold continental air by Monday.

Mad thing is, this is the opposite of where GFS goes awry; low not moved east fast enough.

I think a blend of the two would make for interesting viewing.

[mountain shadow]

23 minutes ago, Radiating Dendrite said:

The joys of trying to get snowflake in the UK!

There is snow in the UK now and there will be snow in the UK this time next week?

[chris55]

GEM 156!! Nice! 

[Matt H]

GEM 12z is beautiful out to t156. Just please be right for once in your life!

[chris55]

2 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

GFS almost an outlier AGAIN

 

Hard to tell on the short ens but that looks like decent improvement from the 6z suit.

[Tim Bland]

GEM is closer to what I’d expect. Like I said earlier-  GFS always adjusts lows south and makes them shallower. It’s don’t this a bit compared to 06z but it’s still got a way to go ...I’d expect another 75-100 mile shift south over the next few days 

[danm]

So where are we so far?

GFS - still not great, but small steps in the right direction in the short term.

UKMO - excellent, again.

ICON - Very good.

GEM - sensational.

 

Let's see what the ECM has to say in a couple of hours. 

Edited February 2, 2021 by danm

[kold weather]

So looking through the GFS ensmebles...

Looks like a subtle improvement on many of the runs, though very few have an easterly for the south.

Instead though there are a decent number that manage to wrap the cold air around the low, which may give either frontal snow from the low even further south, or indeed prime the ground for anything coming up from the SW.

The improvement doesn't really come through on the means interesting, but it is there and it looks to me like 5 or so runs are milder than the 06z equivalents which I think balances out the means.

[Malarky]

1 minute ago, danm said:

So where are we so far?

GFS - still not great, but small steps in the right direction in the short term.

UKMO - excellent, again.

ICON - Very good.

GEM - sensational.

 

Let's see what the ECM has to say in a couple of hours. 

I'll take that.

[KTtom]

28 minutes ago, Jayfromcardiff said:

Looks like Wales and the SW will be digging themselves out next week...

Does go to show just how fickle the models are, just 48 hours ago the only locations free from snow on the depth charts were  the far west and south west.! As of now, they could be prime locations.

Edited February 2, 2021 by KTtom

[Penicuikblizzard]

33 minutes ago, Frank Trough said:

GFS still not exactly where i'd want it to be honest.

 

Low have phased again without the easterly establishing?

There is a Easterly in the North, there will be plenty snow in the NE going by those charts 

[Shunter]

9 minutes ago, Badgers01 said:

the strong signal for cold seems to be being diluted 

ONLY on the GFS suite

[kold weather]

1 minute ago, danm said:

So where are we so far?

GFS - still not great, but small steps in the right direction in the short term.

UKMO - excellent, again.

ICON - Very good.

GEM - sensational.

 

Let's see what the ECM has to say in a couple of hours. 

ARPEGE - Very good.

Ensembles GFS look better than the OP overall, though admittedly they still aren't good enough for the south, but better for the Midlands than the OP.

[The Beast From The East]

RIP Sir Tom Moore

Sorry it's not model related.