Model output discussion - deep cold inbound?

[ICE COLD]

6 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Ukmo day 6 thicknesses rise in s U.K. compared to day 5 

continental feed helps but not a frigid easterly by Monday lunchtime 

looking at the uppers I must have miscalculated!

Was gonna say nick the uppers look pretty darn good from t 120 to t144

[TSNWK]

1 minute ago, Weathizard said:

‘Crucial 12z runs coming up - we should know after that’ 

everyone here after the first set of runs:

LOL!! - I've just spent the last 15 mins trying to figure out what the hell is happening - I've not viewed a run yet

[Drifter]

Just now, ICE COLD said:

Was gonna say nick the uppers look pretty darn good from t 120 to t144

Yes I have no idea how people can question the ukmo run. 

[Jayfromcardiff]

Just now, birdman said:

I don't think anyone knows what's going to happen in 6 days time dude. 

That's true but sooner or later there will be some sort of disruptive snow heading in from the SW and bumping into the cold air as it states on the Met Office outlook.

[northwestsnow]

Well of course UKMO is so much better than GFS but there does seem to be  trend to bring the Atlantic closer and earlier on icon and ukmo..

Furthermore I'm not keen on the tilt to the low to the west of the uk on  ukmo 144,it doesn't look a given it will go under to me...

 

Edited February 2, 2021 by northwestsnow

[bluearmy]

3 minutes ago, snowking said:

Exactly what I was thinking. It's a significantly better run than recent GFS runs, but it's far from what we were hoping to count down to from just a few days ago.

We'll need to see what happens as the various runs (hopefully) settle down over the next couple of days, but we seem to be moving away, at the moment at least, from what was shown - a few days "proper"  (or convective) easterly with a continental influence - towards more a brief incursion from the east, followed by watching how much any residual Atlantic energy can undercut the cold we manage to get in situ.

Whilst so many models are showing so many different things everything is still on the table, but the current direction of travel, it looks to me at least, is away from a more convective easterly and back towards something more akin to a battleground scenario. I hope to see that direction reversing somewhat starting with the 12z ECM.

Help me out kris - how do the uppers match the thickness ??  Never seen this before ?? 

[Badgers01]

1 minute ago, ICE COLD said:

Was gonna say nick the uppers look pretty darn good from t 120 to t144

uppers really nothing special so far

[nick sussex]

The GFS still is making a meal of things , although this time it at least tries to absorb the shortwave more favourably .

The UKMO looks very good later on  with even colder air likely by day 7 after the next round of upstream trough disruption .

 

[weirpig]

3 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

-10C.

 

My eyes are going  -10/-12   eitherway cold

[SqueakheartLW]

A number of you are saying GFS 12z is an improvement on 06z. Maybe something to look forward to when I do my update on the usual 12z models later on

[danm]

1 minute ago, Badgers01 said:

uppers really nothing special so far

Assuming this is a joke?

[Froze were the Days]

3 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

The UKMO looks very good later on  with even colder air likely by day 7 after the next round of upstream trough disruption .

Just looking at that Nick...day 7 trough through Norther France? with cold in place.

Edited February 2, 2021 by Froze were the Days

[BARRY]

1 minute ago, SqueakheartLW said:

A number of you are saying GFS 12z is an improvement on 06z. Maybe something to look forward to when I do my update on the usual 12z models later on

Looking forward to your update

[Matt Jones]

2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Well of course UKMO is so much better than GFS but there does seem to beva trend to bring the Atlantic closer and earlier on icon and ukmo..

Furthermore I'm not keen on the tilt to the low to the west of the UKon ukmo 144,it doesn't look a given it will go under to me...

 

Spot on, it's dicing with death, whilst the uppers are good Sun/Mon probably relatively dry then a weakening of the cold is possible from there.

[Methuselah]

The 12Z might be rubbish, for down here, but I bet there are a few Aberdonians, Taysiders, Fifers et. al., who'll be just loving it!?

    

Edited February 2, 2021 by General Cluster

[northwestsnow]

2 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

The GFS still is making a meal of things , although this time it at least tries to absorb the shortwave more favourably .

The UKMO looks very good later on  with even colder air likely by day 7 after the next round of upstream trough disruption .

 

You sure mate?

Run it from 120-144..

That low to the west doesn't look like it is disrupting...

EC will be interesting but goodness me its hard work  getting cold to these shores.

[Badgers01]

1 minute ago, danm said:

Assuming this is a joke?

nope -9 around is ok but not exceptional and much less than shown recently

[nick sussex]

2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Well of course UKMO is so much better than GFS but there does seem to beva trend to bring the Atlantic closer and earlier on icon and ukmo..

Furthermore I'm not keen on the tilt to the low to the west of the UKon ukmo 144,it doesn't look a given it will go under to me...

 

The low will split at day 7 , you can see the shortwave on its se flank that will run se . The main low will remain slow moving . It would be better though to have a flatter system initially.

[Snowman.]

UKMO looks like its starting to sniff out trough disruption. Would not be surprised if we see the creation of a channel low there as we begin to close it down.

 

 

[Battleground Snow]

Gem is great by 114, Easterly in.

Maybe even better than the Ukmo!

Edited February 2, 2021 by Battleground Snow

[winterof79]

Are the 850s compatible with the 500 chart?

[kold weather]

GFS ensembles still broadly going for the Iberian low dominating, though I'd eyeball that they are a little further east, so slightly less mild out to 108hrs but the pattern still isn;t anywhere near where we need it for the southern half of the country.

I'm a little amazed by just how  different the GFS is in its handling of that Iberian low compared to every other models out there at the moment.

Crazy!

Be a hell of a win for it if it comes off.

[danm]

2 minutes ago, Badgers01 said:

nope -9 around is ok but not exceptional and much less than shown recently

Sub -10c coming into the east. Plenty cold enough for convective snow showers to kick off. 

[chris55]

GFS following its 6z suite with milder uppers in the south. Its a very messy picture mind.

[sheikhy]

2 minutes ago, kold weather said:

GFS ensembles still broadly going for the Iberian low dominating, though I'd eyeball that they are a little further east, so slightly less mild out to 108hrs but the pattern still isn;t anywhere near where we need it for the southern half of the country.

I'm a little amazed by just how  different the GFS is in its handling of that Iberian low compared to every other models out there at the moment.

Crazy!

Be a hell of a win for it if it comes off.

Dont worry mate that will change!!i honestly think things will improve next few runs!!especially if ecm continues where it left off!!