North West Regional Discussion Feb 2021 onwards

[Wold Topper]

Are you heading to work? If not why would you be out and about if ure 'frightened'?

[Frost HoIIow]

BBC points west video of Ian Fergusson talking about the potential cold winter. Scroll down for the video. Thanks to John88b for this.

Gloucester - BBC Weather

WWW.BBC.CO.UK

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14-day weather forecast for Gloucester.

 

[matty40s]

It does seem slightly worrying as the Kent at Kendal bridge isnt far off 2015 levels already, with 24 hours of the rain conveyor left

 

[Thunder Snow]

Just seen the river in cockermouth on the news and stars Facebook page, quite high and flowing very fast. 

[Thunder Snow]

Looking around the river levels on the eden valley, they seem to be rising slowly thankfully. However west Cumbria have so high levels already might change.

[trickydicky]

41 minutes ago, Ramp said:

So today I was in Cockermouth in the morning and then I drove down to millom and finally around Ulverston. There is a small village just past Sellafield which the river runs along side the main road, that was near breaking its banks at lunchtime. Then plenty of flooded roads outside Ulverston. If the rain that I witnessed continues then there’s going to be some serious trouble tonight/tomorrow. Also driving on the m6 today was horrendous, glad to be home.

Holmrook… the village by the River Irt. 

[Mountain Snow]

Yep wetter than an otter's pocket out there, not far off 50mm of rain today. Classic autumn/ winter Lakeland weather.... persistent driving rain. 

[Joe Snow]

Interesting & rare 3 month look ahead to Winter by Fergie down in the West Country not via the Met Office or Meteogroup it’s important to note but the long range weather forecaster that provides weather forecasts to the National Grid going for a cold early  winter ️ 

As much as I love Owain on BBC NW it’s as we head into the Autumn/ Winter season and the risk of more severe weather I really miss a true meteorologist like Ian F with local knowledge vs a BBC weather trained local presenter on the box.  

Personally think we are in for wet Nov gradually turning colder and more settled into late Nov & into Dec. First proper cold spell with widespread snow risk probably mid Dec - maybe a bit Dec 2017 like via a N/ NW. 

 

Edited October 27, 2021 by Joe Snow

[Iceaxecrampon]

Radar looks relentless.

[Thunder Snow]

Currently heavy intense rain heaviest it's been all day

[damianslaw]

Many roads affected by flooding in the Ambleside and Windermere area. I'm hoping the rain eases through tomorrow.. but the damage will be done by then..

Could do with a high pressure to settle over the UK, alas more unsettled weather for the foreseeable, Sunday looks another possible flashpoint..

Is this pay back for the dry weather in September. 

 

[Rush2019]

1 hour ago, Thunder Snow said:

Looking around the river levels on the eden valley, they seem to be rising slowly thankfully. However west Cumbria have so high levels already might change.

How is the river Petteril doing?  Hasn't that one caused a few headaches in the past?  Radar looks pretty nasty, stay safe all who are affected.

[Thunder Snow]

On 27/10/2021 at 21:46, Rush2112 said:

How is the river Petteril doing?  Hasn't that one caused a few headaches in the past?  Radar looks pretty nasty, stay safe all who are affected.

River petteril is fairly normal, however with this river it when the eden begin to fill this rises very quickly.

However the river caldew is rising quite fast.

[matty40s]

On 27/10/2021 at 21:46, Rush2112 said:

How is the river Petteril doing?  Hasn't that one caused a few headaches in the past?  Radar looks pretty nasty, stay safe all who are affected.

The main problem in the Lakes is the persistence of the rain, once all the Lakes are full, the pools, streams etc, and the thin soil is so saturated, the rain just runs off the fells as if there was a tarpaulin covering it. So very quickly, the rivers are taking vast amounts of water from everywhere and rise dramatically.

[Barmada_Casten]

Rain has intensified somewhat the last couple of hours.

Road Inpassable from Ambleside and Hawkshead for normal vechiles.

[Thunder Snow]

Still heavy rain falling, they must be expecting the river eden to rise significantly tonight this has just been submitted on the local news group.

 

Appleby Emergency Response Group

** URGENT UPDATE ** 

PRECAUTION - MOVE CARS AND ERECT FLOOD DEFENCES ON THE SANDS

There is huge uncertainty around the current weather front. The EA has now advised that the predicted water level peak for tonight is 3.15m at 5am. At this level, the water will be onto the road on the Sands but not into properties.

At present the River Level is 1.07m, which is a long way off from 3.15m - but we have to go with what we are being told.

With this in mind, we advise that properties on The Sands should erect their flood defences and move their cars.

We will be monitoring it through the night and will keep you informed.

[damianslaw]

3 minutes ago, matty40s said:

The main problem in the Lakes is the persistence of the rain, once all the Lakes are full, the pools, streams etc, and the thin soil is so saturated, the rain just runs off the fells as if there was a tarpaulin covering it. So very quickly, the rivers are taking vast amounts of water from everywhere and rise dramatically.

The steep relief factor is a major culprit, the rain just runs off the fells and hillsides as you say, and most communities are sat in the hollows and low lying areas. A great example is the A591 that hugs Thirlmere, to the east is a steep fellside of over 2500 ft.. in heavy rain you can see the streams of water that flow off the fellside into the reservoir.. in Dec 2015 these scoured the fellside and large boulders were pushed onto the road, landslides closed the road and destroyed it in one place.

[Badgers01]

Have Derwent water and Buttermere joined up yet that used to be the first sign of trouble ! ? 

[MattTarrant]

On 27/10/2021 at 22:04, Badgers01 said:

Have Derwent water and Buttermere joined up yet that used to be the first sign of trouble ! ? 

That would be Derwent Water & Bassenthwaite Lake your referencing! 

[WillinGlossop]

Hope peeps stay safe however they can in Cumbria overnight… 

[Badgers01]

On 27/10/2021 at 22:12, MattTarrant said:

That would be Derwent Water & Bassenthwaite Lake your referencing! 

Yes meant Bassenthwaite    !! Used to live in Portinscale so should know !!

 

[Barmada_Casten]

12 minutes ago, Badgers01 said:

Yes meant Bassenthwaite    !! Used to live in Portinscale so should know !!

 

It would take a biblical, end of times amount of rain for Derwent and Buttermere to join up!

[Barmada_Casten]

There seems to have been a lul in rainfall here and looking at the system  on the radar it appears to have nudged up and this could my well be it.

Anywhere northwards is being hit.

[Thunder Snow]

Looking at the radar the rain has stopped over the start of the river eden thankfully. However the caldew river is beginning to rise fast, this river is known for rising significantly and quick so this is a worry. However any lulls and it all so goes down quick

[Thunder Snow]

 Reports of homes flooding in keswick