Model thread discussion - cold spell looming

[Singularity]

 

GFS 06z left, UKMO 12z right.

UKMO 12z is slightly west with the lows and ridge.  Looks primed for a stalling and fizzling of the Atlantic front - but will it be across the UK this time, or to the southwest?

[Notty]

UK Met -v- GFS Op 12z T+120

[Notty]

UK Met 12z T+144

Edited February 6, 2021 by Notty
Added 850's

[Singularity]

 

+144 comparison between GFS 06z on left and UKMO 12z on right.

Looks like UKMO still gets the front more 'involved' across the UK but the angle looks good for all but the far southwest to stay in a freezing cold SE to E flow as the front stalls and fizzles.

Should also note that UKMO has a better orientation to the flow to our east - although this is countered a bit by the ridge being a little weaker.

Edited February 6, 2021 by Singularity
Orientation note

[Notty]

Snowy breakdown Thursday ? GFS 12z

[sheikhy]

Cold hanging on again on the 12zs!!ukmo looks even better than this morning!!

[ICE COLD]

GFS 12z at 144

Edited February 6, 2021 by ICE COLD

[SLEETY]

Some brutal cold at the end of the ukmo and it looks like the high is aligning to bring it into UK, crazy cold if it does. 

[Singularity]

  

Looks to me that this run won't quite manage to set up the really cold flow that the 06z did - the ridge orientation is less conducive.

With UKMO having trended the other way, this is inconclusive overall.

[sheikhy]

My god ice day on friday on 12z gfs!!looks identical to 06z!!!what a fightback from the russian cold!!

[Tim Bland]

Front stalls and gives 8-10cm for almost all of England & Wales to end the week...

[Lukesluckybunch]

Absolutely brilliant gfs !cold all week Thursday looking particularly cold! Highs of -4!

Edited February 6, 2021 by Lukesluckybunch

[Northwest NI]

4 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Front stalls and gives 8-10cm for almost all of England & Wales to end the week...

And Northern Ireland!

[sheikhy]

Ahh go on another ice day on saturday!!guys that 168 hour chart is incredible!!look at the scandi heights!!think back to yesterday when this was meant to be over on thursday!

[Snowman.]

7 minutes ago, Singularity said:

  

Looks to me that this run won't quite manage to set up the really cold flow that the 06z did - the ridge orientation is less conducive.

With UKMO having trended the other way, this is inconclusive overall.

The Atlantic low looks better later on however with the low by Azores stronger putting a better tilt on the building high

Edited February 6, 2021 by Snowman.

[Lukesluckybunch]

1 minute ago, sheikhy said:

Ahh go on another ice day on saturday!!guys that 168 hour chart is incredible!!look at the scandi heights!!think back to yesterday when this was meant to be over on thursday!

Loving it sheikhy! At 174 it's just amazing!

[Griff]

Actually more favourable on 12z looking west

[Snowman.]

More energy in the southern arm don’t want to jinx but 12z may well be a boom at D10

[ICE COLD]

Well the trend continues

[TSNWK]

Ice day 7 and counting as the colder uppers are on the March westwards again 

[sheikhy]

You know what why not lets have another one of those siberian like days on sunday!!guys this forum should be buzzing!!ukmo looks amazing and gfs has just continued where it left off on the 06z!!the cold temps are something else from tomorrow!

[Man With Beard]

UKMO T144

Goodness, this is so close to a beast round 2, with a trough link up underneath heights to the north. That front over the SW has barely moved in 24 hours.

[ICE COLD]

This could be a mental run 

t192 

[Chiltern_Blizzard]

2 hours ago, MJB said:

I will ..........................I think we will get some sort of covering , just depends if we get lucky and be get under a line of showers , I am more looking towards Thursday as the Atlantic tries to get in 

I'm minded to agree. I'm in Aylesbury so a few miles south and east. Looking marginal this weekend. More promise throughout week though 

[Lukesluckybunch]

1 minute ago, Man Without Beard said:

UKMO T144

Goodness, this is so close to a beast round 2, with a trough link up underneath heights to the north. That front over the SW has barely moved in 24 hours.

Agree look at that cold lobe ready to pounce on us out east!