Jump to content
Will it snow? 7 day forecast Weather Radar Will it be cold?
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?
IGNORED

Model thread discussion - cold spell looming

Paul

By Paul
in Forecast Model Discussion

 Share
Paul
Message added by Paul,

It's busy right now, so please ensure you only post about the model output in this thread. 
For local snow discussion and will it snow posts, please use the regional threads. 
And for more general chat please use the chat, moans and ramps thread.
There's now also a cold spell chat and discusison thread.

Recommended Posts

Drifter Rising Star

Drifter

Posted
  • Location: North east Hampshire
  • Location: North east Hampshire
Posted
3 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Here’s a nice thought..some of the snow that has fallen or falls in the next few days could still be there is 10 days time ! Not often you can say that in most parts of the UK! 

02D514C3-E14C-43BF-8E64-C584B7F7AF21.png

Unless it sublimates!

  • Like 7
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Weather-history Maestro

Weather-history

Posted
  • Location: Irlam
  • Location: Irlam
Posted
1 minute ago, Tim Bland said:

Here’s a nice thought..some of the snow that has fallen or falls in the next few days could still be there is 10 days time ! Not often you can say that in most parts of the UK! 

02D514C3-E14C-43BF-8E64-C584B7F7AF21.png

That's if the snow doesn't sublimate, could very well do if you get a really dry airmass 

  • Like 6
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Captain Shortwave Maestro

Captain Shortwave

Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough
Posted

The crucial timeframe is around day 5/6. Once that deep cold is sent into Central Europe, then it is unlikely that we will see a mild outcome at the surface and an increasing chance of a proper block forming to the north east.

  • Like 7
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Frosty_wsm Rising Star

Frosty_wsm

Posted
  • Location: Weston-Super-Mare, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms in the summer, frost fog & snow in winter.
  • Location: Weston-Super-Mare, North Somerset
Posted
43 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Thursday lunchtime 00z Vs 06z ..

A3237BDD-DA4B-49DC-8820-39342B0F1BB0.png

E7B98398-AA52-49E6-97AF-38768413628B.png

Now that's more like it, what I wouldn't give to have the front stall over the south west! 

  • Like 8
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Howie Rising Star

Howie

Posted
  • Location: North London
  • Location: North London
Posted
2 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Op is close to the mean by end of the week..look at the control...

94B09695-2C60-4862-A250-25B7E50B81BE.png

Before, the mean shot straight up, now it's definitely flattening out

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites
sheikhy Maestro

sheikhy

Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester
Posted

IF the models continue to upgrade this evening then bedlam is gona break out in here!!!!just taken a look a the ensembles for my location and theres no end in sight lol!!!not anytime soon anyway!!this is severe cold being forecasted!!none of this measly -5 850s and 2 or 3 degrees by day!!!

  • Like 4
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Purga Accomplished

Purga

Posted
  • Location: West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme cold & snow
  • Location: West Sussex
Posted

Happy Valentine's day! Temps widely < -5C in a bitter ESE wind with snow widely still on the ground. IF this verifies we could be looking at a real 'classic' old time cold spell.

image.thumb.png.03faa1449f019569d1b188787758da18.pngimage.thumb.png.52c010d115dac4d5607c0063b4675c7b.pngimage.thumb.png.4e4dfd4d2151cd721c65e5265211d74f.pngimage.thumb.png.be5559ae53eb56eb0a6f67fba44dc5e7.pngimage.thumb.png.ab18d04a9b6c9bf7534e65d963937477.png

  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites
  • Popular Post
Uncertainty Accomplished

Uncertainty

Posted
  • Location: North West
  • Weather Preferences: Anything but the prevailing wind!
  • Location: North West
  • Popular Post
Posted

image.thumb.png.62631205db8c4d54cebba1a552671bc9.png
A mean 1040mb Scandi high at day 8 with a bitterly cold Southeasterly wafting back into SE England?

This is a huge development from this time yesterday, backed up by op runs and fitting with tropics / stratospheric developments.

As always a couple of days to count it down and the surface impact on the U.K. completely obscured at present. But the likely hood of blocking persisting is increasing fast.

  • Like 22
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Cloud 10 Veteran

Cloud 10

Posted
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl
Posted (edited)

Look at those temps. in Eastern Europe,makes Iceland look like the Bahama's.:cold-emoji:

I can see an emergency cold extension committee meeting being hastily arranged.

 

gfs-9-192.thumb.png.c57aacfc39a9743e42808028de465c2b.png

Edited by Cloud 10
  • Like 9
Link to comment
Share on other sites
  • Popular Post
chionomaniac Maestro

chionomaniac

Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Popular Post
Posted
18 hours ago, chionomaniac said:

Anyone want to bet that this east Europe block is more west and north come nearer the time?6AFFA9C8-6A04-4E15-B664-89B514C63A15.thumb.jpeg.5e7e4cc5b6f64455d39cc82e51707717.jpeg

 

 

18 hours ago, chionomaniac said:

When I see 2 areas of amplification with a weak trough in between at that kind of timeframe, then it is easy to envisage a slightly different amplification scenario with a little tweaking. So, better amplification nearer the UK, or to our west, then we have a Scandi high and not an EST Europe block.

Well, all I can say is that I am pleasantly surprised today that this has occurred in the models at a far speedier timeframe. Great output so far today. 

  • Like 26
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Purga Accomplished

Purga

Posted
  • Location: West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme cold & snow
  • Location: West Sussex
Posted

Control run 06z looks a tad interesting for next weekend - LOL

 

image.thumb.png.034cfd80c10767534551f11dd3602441.pngimage.thumb.png.7c0b717991ee0e523f351ef2eadb1c7b.png

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Djdazzle Veteran

Djdazzle

Posted
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
Posted

With those very low dew points modelled for next weekend and a brisk SE wind, that will feel absolutely perishing.

It’s funny salivating over charts a week away when we also have this week to experience.

Possibly the best model viewing period ever! Hopefully we will be chasing record temps in the summer too!

  • Like 7
Link to comment
Share on other sites
That ECM Maestro

That ECM

Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
Posted

If gfs is right then there could be some heavy snow somewhere as the two air masses meet. Met have dropped 3 degrees on Friday for here. 8 down to 5

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Derecho Maestro

Derecho

Posted
  • Location: Hull
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Hull
Posted

Coldies may want to look at P15 from the 06z GFS ens, what a treat. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
  • Popular Post
ICE COLD Maestro

ICE COLD

Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW AND FREEZING TEMPS
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Popular Post
Posted

OMG model / chasing this winter is unbelievable. I don’t no what I’m more excited about the snow tonight/ tomorrow, the freezing temps lasting all week or the whopping scandi high on the gfs 6z . This is mental . 
 

 

600DD487-8BF2-4DB0-A540-B1B666FA7AE6.png

883F0F0F-838D-413B-88C6-2F7E8330475B.png

  • Like 12
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Steady Easterly Contributor

Steady Easterly

Posted
  • Location: East Durham
  • Location: East Durham
Posted
18 minutes ago, chionomaniac said:

 

Well, all I can say is that I am pleasantly surprised today that this has occurred in the models at a far speedier timeframe. Great output so far today. 

Aye theres nowt like blowing your own trumpet, but seriously, good call, hasnt happened yet but i never thought the cold block would be swept away as was shown on most previous output-dense cold air etc, very old school synoptics and surface conditions being shown.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Battleground Snow Maestro

Battleground Snow

Posted
  • Location: Coventry
  • Location: Coventry
Posted
4 minutes ago, CentralSouthernSnow said:

Can I just ask.. with this monster scandi high, where would the low pressure come from... 

There wouldn't be any, apart from maybe a little over south coast and channel islands,

The way everything is moving west each run, you would expect Greenland high eventually as BA mentioned earlier

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
 Share
Go to topic listing
×
×
  • Create New...