model discussion Model output discussion 11th July onwards

[knocker]

1 hour ago, johnholmes said:

My take on the possible weather for the next 2 weeks using the 500 anomaly charts. Just one take on the two week period. Feel free to disagree but please show charts and your reasons. 

Thursday 12 August

Ec-has a largish closed upper low off e Canada with some ridging in uk area; flow is just about w’ly for uk The air is sourced from south of Hudson Bay!

Noaa some similar ideas to ec but not entirely. A fairly marked contour ridge, but less marked than Monday, it has also been moved east from approx 35 W to 15-20 W, flatter than on Monday; there is a reasonable sized +ve anomaly in this ridge (150 DM). The following trough about 50W, just off the Canadian coast; was at about 70 W on Monday. Thus the pattern is reasonably mobile. Indeed on the 8-14 the ridge-trough is shown having moved east; the ridge, over/just e of the uk and the trough, still quite sharp at about 35 W with a fairly small –ve anomaly in the base of the trough.Again the 500 flow looks to be from about the same region as EC

The start of the 6-10 day period will see the showery set up giving way to a, probably, fairly short more settled spell, with changeable conditions redeveloping into the 8-14 day period. Reasonable temperatures, no really cold air, in spite of the path and origin of the 500 flow. No signal, to me, of any marked heat coming into the UK. It is possible, briefly if it does occur, for the SE of England during the change over from settled to less so.

ECMWF/GFS DAY 8-10 MEAN 500MB HEIGHT COMPARISON

WWW.METEO.PSU.EDU

Climate Prediction Center - 6-10 Day 500mb Outlook

WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

 

 

The ext gefs/eps to go with your summary John. As you say the problem is the pattern is slowly moving east so that by the end of the period both have the ridge to the east of the UK, albeit +ve anomalies generally

Edited August 12, 2021 by knocker

[Frosty.]

The Gfs 6z op is almost a carbon copy of the very disappointing 0z op with mostly sub-standard summer conditions, you could call it autumnal at times with winds from a broadly northerly point although the very end of the run improves but that’s only a token gesture!...however, the GEFS / ECM means look so much better, I just think it’s a case of being unlucky to get a few very crappy op runs, I think some good ones must be around the corner??...he said hopefully!!  

[mb018538]

Good post here that ties in to AAM and momentum budgets. Watch how all of the mid latitude heights that built during mid July (giving settled weather here etc) as AAM rose are eaten away again as it has fallen. Low pressure starts to fill these spots as it moves poleward, and the higher heights head back to the tropics. For the UK, notice how the Azores high retreats well away to the SW as August has progressed, which is quite typical of a -ve AAM La Nina regime.

[Frosty.]

I appreciate the mean is a broad brush approach (average) BUT as you can see, the longer term GEFS 6z mean (on the face of it) shows summer returning big time, light years better than the garbage 0z / 6z op..in my opinion! ...so I would say there should be a marked improvement beyond mid month, especially the last third..so fingers crossed ? 

 

 

[Methuselah]

As an eternal optimist might say (Hi @jon snow) the GFS 06Z is an outlier!

    

[mushymanrob]

1 hour ago, knocker said:

The ext gefs/eps to go with your summary John. As you say the problem is the pattern is slowly moving east so that by the end of the period both have the ridge to the east of the UK, albeit +ve anomalies generally

......... and surely with +ve heights to our East, then the chances of a Southerly (so v warm/hot) increase?  Ok we are not there yet, and unlike John i like to second guess the direction the anomalies are heading beyond the timeframe they show. I absolutely agree that theres no heat on these charts yet... but if that eastward progress continues coupled with developing troughing to our West then a hot spell of some duration (short or long) must be a possibility. As they say in winter - "the building blocks are in place"...lol

[Frosty.]

Here’s a small sample of what could be ours a bit later this month..many thanks to the GEFS 6z for giving me the opportunity to post these..much appreciated buddy!   ?

 

 

[Allseasons-Si]

Afternoon all

i must say that the means are improving with every run if it's fine and settled weather you are after,yes there is no heat wave showing at the moment but i have seen how quickly they can show up at short notice,...seen this a few times over the years

day ten EPS height's/MSLP and temp anomalies shows a hp cell to our N/NW and this position is why the temps are not responding because the hp cell is still in the wrong place dragging cool-er air around it's eastern flank,...yes not cold by any means nor unsettled but these anomalies don't show troughs or mini features that could evade from the eastern flank,...

the EPS tactile at 192 still shows the hp cell to our NW but this is at 192 so we will have to see how this progresses in the coming days...

The EPS clusters at day ten are also reflective of the day ten EPS mean with the hp cell to our N/NW...

...but look at the EXT EPS,...almost a unanimous decision on a UK high...

 

...BRING IT ON!!!

the weather is nice here at the moment so enjoy the rest of your afternoon

C U later's.

Edited August 12, 2021 by Allseasons-si
typo

[MATTWOLVES 3]

UKMO looks pretty good for next week..

Edited August 12, 2021 by MATTWOLVES

[Frosty.]

I wonder what the problem is with the Gfs ops today?..they are absolute rubbish compared to the mean!!...brief ridges followed by lows / troughs diving down from the NW..tosh 0z / 6z & 12z!  

 

Edited August 12, 2021 by jon snow

[I remember Atlantic 252]

30 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES said:

UKMO looks pretty good for next week..

looks decent but average temps, GFS and bbc only around 18 max here in the NW'ly wind, suppose decent for August

[Frosty.]

Now that’s what I’m talking about..Gem 12z = ....you little beauty! ...hang your head in shame Gfs ops which are hell-bent on the destruction of what’s left of summer!!!!!  

[MATTWOLVES 3]

37 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

looks decent but average temps, GFS and bbc only around 18 max here in the NW'ly wind, suppose decent for August

That's not really decent though for August standards is it? Especially in a warming world...We can hit 20c in February,but not in August beggers belief.

[Northwest NI]

On 12/08/2021 at 18:39, MATTWOLVES said:

That's not really decent though for August standards is it? Especially in a warming world...We can hit 20c in February,but not in August beggers belief.

After the last two weeks, I’ll settle for dry and 18 degrees thanks.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

16 minutes ago, Northwest NI said:

After the last two weeks, I’ll settle for dry and 18 degrees 

I understand what your saying mate,but the fact we can settle for that at this time of year,shows how poor circumstances have been for many this Summer and many previously! 

Spoiler alert....for the first time this Year...im having a moan...sorry mods and good folks...back to the models...

GFS again is having its daily tantrums,but the mean remains solid! Hopefully a decent ECM and ec46 later this evening.

@Mike Poole King of the 12z runs...come and bring us some cheer mate.

Edited August 12, 2021 by MATTWOLVES

[Frosty.]

Here’s a small sample from the GEFS 12z!!!!!!!! ...perhaps summer isn’t over?  ...I may have duplicated a few in my excitement..and slipped in the Gem 12z T+240 too..  !...think I need a lie down now..until the ECM 12z!

Edited August 12, 2021 by jon snow

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Once again the GFS op frustrates the hell out of me...but you guessed it,the mean remains solid! It ain't over yet! 

[Frosty.]

My money is on the GEM..but I don’t actually have any money! ...been a bit hyper today, just changed my meds so please bear with me!  

 

 

[DAVID SNOW]

Any chance of a new thread in the morning?

This one has become almost unreadable, to the point that anyone looking in would be met by an avalanche of off topic posts and theatrics.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Just to keep with the theatrics of the thread

ECM looks OK for many...largely settled,now could that Low out West serve as an Heat pump later! 

[mb018538]

I see the ECM has continued the trend of eating away at the settled weather next week, so we’re now at the point that we’ve been multiple times this summer. Upper trough moving in and probably spoiling things with lots of cloud and annoying little showers popping up:

 

We may now have to wait until the following weekend for a stronger high (surface and upper) to develop and bring more settled and warmer weather:

[Methuselah]

Lords, ladies and genitalmen! Please give a warm welcome to tonight' star attraction . . . The GEFS ensembles!: 

    

The 12Z Op's nae very good, is it?

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Ecm is finishing well..very well indeed.

Get in there me beauty...I've been waiting months to say that..

Edited August 12, 2021 by MATTWOLVES

[Frosty.]

I will leave basil brush to give my opinion of the ECM 12z op day 10...plus the GEM!!...  

[Guest]

12 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Lords, ladies and genitalmen! Please give a warm welcome to tonight' star attraction . . . The GEFS ensembles!: 

    

The 12Z Op's nae very good, is it?

Is star attraction code for a mean returning to below average through the weekend and staying for the foreseeable? Would seem so….