model discussion Model output discussion 11th July onwards

[Frosty.]

The Gfs 0z operational shows a hot anticyclonic late august with temperatures into the 30’s c range! ?...and the 0z mean is a cracker too!!  
 

Edit..,unfortunately the ECM op isn’t, Och well, maybe the 12z? ...we always get these little dramas in the u k don’t we?..  

Edited August 14, 2021 by jon snow

[Frosty.]

Actually the ECM 0z op is getting there by T+240 hours!...phew, just a slight delay compared to last nights 12z?!..I don’t normally comment on a run in progress as it can make you look like a horses a** trying to second guess what the end result will be!!   

Edited August 14, 2021 by jon snow

[Methuselah]

A somewhat encouraging pair of GEFS temperature ensembles, this morning:

    

[bluearmy]

9 hours ago, mushymanrob said:

Sorry.. unpopular post time but tonights NOAA charts retain blocking to our north, and IMHO do not support a heatwave. 

Either im wrong

They are wrong

Both

Or not.

chill rob

question is how long that mean amplification pattern holds 

Note the ecm meandering upper trough on the op this morning is not unexpected….it could verify like that but I suspect it won’t 
 

Edited August 14, 2021 by bluearmy

[bluearmy]

7 hours ago, draztik said:

The GEFs and EC Ens point to average temps for the UK, through days 7-15. The EC op at day 9/10 is quite the outlier. But as always, why let that spoil a story. 

‘T’was the same in July ….allow the ridge clusters to congregate around a solution over the next week 

 

 

[Scorcher]

3 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

 

Note the ecm meandering upper trough on the op this morning is not unexpected….it could verify like that 
 

That would be disappointing though as it would delay any heat and that high at the end of the run doesn't look nearly as robust as it did last night. 

I do think it looks likely that we will get at least a couple of days of hot weather whatever happens, and hopefully a lot more than that.

[Eagle Eye]

We can hope for heat now and know there's at least a chance for it to come in pretty good form, it's getting closer. 

[draztik]

the op was an outlier last night and today’s output from the EC ( incl. the ens) adds further weight to avoid leading the faithful up the garden path! 

Edited August 14, 2021 by draztik

[Frosty.]

The longer term ECM 0z ensemble mean is looking really good..if more settled and warmer weather is what y’all are hoping for?! ? 

 

 

Edited August 14, 2021 by jon snow

[mushymanrob]

1 hour ago, bluearmy said:

chill rob

question is how long that mean amplification pattern holds 

 

Well these charts have build this gradually over several days, the two charts are very similar, so the blocking is expected to be lengthier?.. well, not transitory anyway.
The axis of the ridge on the 6-10 day mean is just to our West, with the high centred near where the green contour lines are widest? just south of the surface pressure anomaly and this transferres slightly Eastward by the 8-14 day mean.

To me that suggests the centre of the high will be  just west of scotland transferring just east of scotland.

This is almost exactly the pattern we have already seen this summer that brought dry sunny weather to scotland, but with the high centred north of England it means an undercutting northeasterly is likely.

So thats how im reading it, and as its not supporting the current ops heat IMHO  which rely on the ridging to be East of the UK. These charts do not support ridging to our east - but the 8-14 day is gradually edging that way, just not in the timeframe the ops are bringing in the hotter options.

Of course these are only predictions, what will we get from next Friday onwards? time will tell but id be surprised of these consistent anomalies are far from being accurate.

 

[bluearmy]

4 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

Well these charts have build this gradually over several days, the two charts are very similar, so the blocking is expected to be lengthier?.. well, not transitory anyway.
The axis of the ridge on the 6-10 day mean is just to our West, with the high centred near where the green contour lines are widest? just south of the surface pressure anomaly and this transferres slightly Eastward by the 8-14 day mean.

To me that suggests the centre of the high will be  just west of scotland transferring just east of scotland.

This is almost exactly the pattern we have already seen this summer that brought dry sunny weather to scotland, but with the high centred north of England it means an undercutting northeasterly is likely.

So thats how im reading it, and as its not supporting the current ops heat IMHO  which rely on the ridging to be East of the UK. These charts do not support ridging to our east - but the 8-14 day is gradually edging that way, just not in the timeframe the ops are bringing in the hotter options.

Of course these are only predictions, what will we get from next Friday onwards? time will tell but id be surprised of these consistent anomalies are far from being accurate.

 

You can dig out the cpc 10/14 charts from July ahead of that hot spell to compare rob …….

[mushymanrob]

6 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

You can dig out the cpc 10/14 charts from July ahead of that hot spell to compare rob …….

probably not got time today.. too much on..

Edit

Ive just had a cursory look, the charts i have for the heatwave are similar to the current NOAA charts, but do have the axis of the ridging to our east, so the 8-14 dayer is getting there, .

 

 

Edited August 14, 2021 by mushymanrob

[Singularity]

Surface highs are most supported a little east of the 500 mb ridge, by around 200-400 miles I believe, due to a tilt to the atmosphere imposed by the spin of the Earth.

I think the ECM 00z is right to question a plume setup establishing as soon as next Sunday (seems a bit quick relative to the tropical events), but probably went a bit far with toning down the preceding high pressure development across the UK.

[sheikhy]

Is it me or all of a sudden the settled spell is getting eaten away between 120 and 168 hours on the mornings ecm and now the gfs 06z!!worrying signs!!!lets hope 12zs upgrade again!

[Frosty.]

The Gem 0z seems pleasant enough longer term doesn’t it?  

[MATTWOLVES 3]

28 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Is it me or all of a sudden the settled spell is getting eaten away between 120 and 168 hours on the mornings ecm and now the gfs 06z!!worrying signs!!!lets hope 12zs upgrade again!

Hey mate...dont worry we can always trek off to SE Greenland for some real warmth come Bank Holiday

Or too North Finland for a chilling experience.

Edit...the mean is looking OK Shaky for a similar time frame....most likely another operational wobble...which tbh are getting more and more frequent! Perhaps fluctuations regarding AAM being one of the reasons!

Edited August 14, 2021 by MATTWOLVES

[Frosty.]

What can I say?...I’ve just looked at the GEFS 6z..and I gotta say..I’m preety happy!!..august could indeed totally redeem itself!  

 

I probably made a duplication..perhaps I will totally redeem myself later! ..   

Edited August 14, 2021 by jon snow

[Methuselah]

Where's it gone? GFS has gone from molten lava to cold, green snot!

    

    

    

But . . . Given that the 'corridor of misfortune' required than blob of snot to land like does is so narrow, it'd be like threading a needle. Tail-end outlier?

[MATTWOLVES 3]

GFS op having its normal hissy fits amongst the ensembles...and wow let's hope the control run is on to something...the mean is pretty solid though! Unlike today here...16c and absolutely hammering down..and it looks lovely on the South Coast...so Chris must be sunning himself.

And just to finish....a whopping 44c in parts of Spain right now!! Makes ya bloody sick don't it.

[Frosty.]

The GEFS 6z mean is mean, moody and magnificent..and not necessarily in that order?   !!!! ..whereas the ECM 0z ensemble mean is preety good..go figure!!..   

Edited August 14, 2021 by jon snow

[summer blizzard]

There's certainly scope for the trough to stall as the GEM shows but both the 0z Euro and 6z GFS don't do anything before at least day 10 so as yet the pendulum has swung back in favour of delay this morning.

[Methuselah]

Quelle surprise -- the 06Z op has indeed gone of on its own. It's too bad to be true!

    

[Frosty.]

Aye Ed, there’s nae problem, it’s all good in the hood!  

[Scorcher]

6 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Quelle surprise -- the 06Z op has indeed gone of on its own. It's too bad to be true!

    

Comical- literally the very bottom of the pack.

[Stav]

50 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES said:

GFS op having its normal hissy fits amongst the ensembles...and wow let's hope the control run is on to something...the mean is pretty solid though! Unlike today here...16c and absolutely hammering down..and it looks lovely on the South Coast...so Chris must be sunning himself.

And just to finish....a whopping 44c in parts of Spain right now!! Makes ya bloody sick don't it.

Very happy not to have 44c Matt. I didn't like that when I lived in air conditioning in Bahrain and certainly wouldn't like it here. As you have said before 24c with a nice breeze and low humidity will do me fine.