model discussion Model output discussion 11th July onwards

[Mike Poole]

I think we are probably going to have to accept one more transitory low, before the high pressure signal reasserts itself.  GFS T180 is right back on track:

And maybe this slight delay is more consistent with the forecasted AAM rise.

Indeed a brave shout to call the end of summer, based on a slight delay to the more amplified pattern.  

[MATTWOLVES 3]

1 minute ago, Mike Poole said:

I think we are probably going to have to accept one more transitory low, before the high pressure signal reasserts itself.  GFS T180 is right back on track:

And maybe this slight delay is more consistent with the forecasted AAM rise.

Indeed a brave shout to call the end of summer, based on a slight delay to the more amplified pattern.  

Don't forget the recent mountain torque event Mike...or the torque from my 200bhp engine  

Seriously though we could be awaiting on some AAM fluctuations...just trying to keep the mood up on here.

[Mike Poole]

GEM gets there in the end but a good 2.5 days behind the GFS, T240:

Edited August 15, 2021 by Mike Poole

[summer blizzard]

GFS upgrades to building pressure at day 8 (though it quickly removes it in FI) while GEM is a significant downgrade on this morning to day 10.

 

 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

I hate to say it...but the mean ain't having any of this backtracking! I ain't heard the fat lady sing just yet!

Chins up folks...we ain't done yet...keep believing..

Edited August 15, 2021 by MATTWOLVES

[Frosty.]

I’m really happy with the means again today, the ECM / GEFS both indicate a return to summery weather during late august and I can’t see the means imploding either!...the ops perhaps having a wobble but then as we know, op runs can be very variable!  

[mb018538]

Yuck. Nearly total agreement from the ops for next weekend to be wet in many areas.

Can’t believe how much this has changed from Friday.  

[mb018538]

ECM is rubbish too. Looks like the classic UK snatch defeat from the jaws of victory is going to strike again. Unbelievable.

[Frosty.]

I have a good feeling about late august!..why shouldn’t I with a mean and perturbations that look like this?!!!  

Edited August 15, 2021 by jon snow

[JayAlmeida]

47 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Yuck. Nearly total agreement from the ops for next weekend to be wet in many areas.

Can’t believe how much this has changed from Friday.  

The models have the bed today I'm afraid. The following Tuesday and wednesday are looking pretty bad for rainfall aswell 

luckily they rarely manage to get rainfall correct especially at 6-7 days out so we'll see.

ECM has relocated the heat to the middle of the atlantic for early next week aswell

Edited August 15, 2021 by JayAlmeida

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Ok...the ops today say next weekend is Sh@te...so far the means paint a different picture,so I await with interest the ensembles update,and those noaa charts next update.. 

I still think this is another operational mishap,and that the 0zs in the morning will be improved...mind you I did say the 12s would be improved.. 

I'm past caring tbh

It's finishing better...this ain't over yet folks...we could still go out like Thelma and Louise..

Edited August 15, 2021 by MATTWOLVES

[Mike Poole]

16 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES said:

Ok...the ops today say next weekend is Sh@te...so far the means paint a different picture,so I await with interest the ensembles update,and those noaa charts next update.. 

I still think this is another operational mishap,and that the 0zs in the morning will be improved...mind you I did say the 12s would be improved.. 

I'm past caring tbh

It's finishing better...this ain't over yet folks...we could still go out like Thelma and Louise..

Yep, ends up OK as per GEM, ECM T240:

Having viewed all the 12s, I am not too disheartened, actually.  I think the early build of high pressure is gone for a burton (whatever that means) but that was probably likely on the 0z suite anyway.  It doesn’t mean that the warm spell is not on, it is just delayed and we have another low tracking over the UK to endure first.  Although, I think the likelihood of a plume in the immediate future has much receded.  

[Frosty.]

Looking at the ECM 12z operational, I’m seeing a good recovery going on during days 9 and 10!!.......much better day 10 from the 12z compared to the 0z op!!!.... ..now I think there has been a lot of knee jerk reactions today to the operational runs, I even made a few sneering remarks about the Ecm 0z op and the end of the Gfs 0z op but the means remain solid in their support for a decent end to summer!..now who is going to win the gold star ️ today..my money is on Matt.. take a bow sir!!  

Edited August 15, 2021 by jon snow

[JayAlmeida]

20 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Yep, ends up OK as per GEM, ECM T240:

Having viewed all the 12s, I am not too disheartened, actually.  I think the early build of high pressure is gone for a burton (whatever that means) but that was probably likely on the 0z suite anyway.  It doesn’t mean that the warm spell is not on, it is just delayed and we have another low tracking over the UK to endure first.  Although, I think the likelihood of a plume in the immediate future has much receded.  

Not gona lie I'm pretty cheesed off with today's charts

Getting tired of seeing a build of high pressure @240 hrs only to have it pushed back.

Hopefully we can get a bit of progress over the coming days.

Edited August 15, 2021 by JayAlmeida

[MATTWOLVES 3]

10 minutes ago, jon snow said:

Looking at the ECM 12z operational, I’m seeing a good recovery going on during days 9 and 10!!.......much better day 10 from the 12z compared to the 0z op!!!.... ..now I think there has been a lot of knee jerk reactions today to the operational runs, I even made a few sneering remarks about the Ecm 0z op and the end of the Gfs 0z op but the means remain solid in their support for a decent end to summer!..now who is going to win the gold star ️ today..my money is on Matt.. take a bow sir!!  

Couldn't care less about a Gold star mate,as long as we can have some kind of decent spell within the next couple of weeks I will be happy. You can have the star or donate it to charity for me

And like you say the 12z ends quite well,more importantly I'm looking forward to where next weeks low will end up amongst the ens shortly.

Keep the faith guys and gals.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

1 minute ago, JayAlmeida said:

Not gona lie I'm pretty cheesed off with today's charts

Getting sick and tired of seeing a build of high pressure @240 hrs only to have it pushed back.

It was actually 216hrs mate

[MP-R]

12 minutes ago, JayAlmeida said:

Not gona lie I'm pretty cheesed off with today's charts

Getting tired of seeing a build of high pressure @240 hrs only to have it pushed back.

Hopefully we can get a bit of progress over the coming days.

If it’s delayed much longer we’ll be talking about frost, fog and faux cold!

[JayAlmeida]

5 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES said:

It was actually 216hrs mate

Fair enough

Just hope today is a wobble and we don't see the HP put off again until the +200 hr mark tommorow. 

[Mike Poole]

Well ECM mean at T144 and T240:

Think the early high/plume scenario is for the birds now, but strong support for building high pressure in the later timeframe, reinforced by the spread T240:

The uncertainty suggesting the trough is now camped out west, but is quite close, this story has much to unfold yet…

Edited August 15, 2021 by Mike Poole

[MATTWOLVES 3]

 

@Mike Poole ECM mean looks better regarding next weekend,and also ends well...some disagreement with the op regarding how much of a player that Low becomes.

Now correct me if I'm wrong here,but as far as I can tell,there are quite a few of us making an effort here to shed some light on proceedings! 

Edited August 15, 2021 by Mapantz

[Mapantz]

Keep it to model discussion please?! 

If you take umbrage to a post, use the report button. Don't reply and drag the conversation on..

Thanks.

[Frosty.]

I hope I don’t jinx it but what a great mean again from the ECM 12z longer term...I will say it again..late august could totally redeem itself!...watch this space...............................  

[Allseasons-Si]

Hay guy's,..not posted much cos i have been watching the Iceland volcano live and amongst other things but i am still liking the means from gefs/ECM

and more especially from the anomaly charts from the EPS/NOAA from day ten and the temps look like responding to above average>>>

 sorry for the quick post as i am eating my tea in the process

Edited August 15, 2021 by Allseasons-si
typo

[Cheshire Freeze]

On 15/08/2021 at 17:26, Mike Poole said:

I think we are probably going to have to accept one more transitory low, before the high pressure signal reasserts itself.  GFS T180 is right back on track:

And maybe this slight delay is more consistent with the forecasted AAM rise.

Indeed a brave shout to call the end of summer, based on a slight delay to the more amplified pattern.  

It’s the end of summer by default of having only 2 weeks of it left Mike. It could be a nice start to September however, it often is in recent times. This being said, it does look like we’re approaching somewhat of a crossroads. I wouldn’t like to call it, personally. 

[Frosty.]

Am I the only one who posts JMA charts?...anyway, it’s scored a hat trick!...the last 3 runs all show a plume, I kid you not!...those Japanese must know something we don’t! ⛈