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Model output discussion 11th July onwards

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Allseasons-Si Maestro

Allseasons-Si

Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
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Posted

After the initial plume next week,...the gfs 18z has this for the start of the following week(day ten),...this could be a Sept to remember if these charts were to come off

gfs-0-240.thumb.png.9bb2b38c930fbe9920bdee3bb32a57ad.pngOmega-Symbol-Fiery-Letter-Greek-Alphabet-And-Its-Meaning.thumb.jpg.3fe32730ee5deb90bf122196fdfaeaee.jpg

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Allseasons-Si Maestro

Allseasons-Si

Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
Posted

Whoah!!!,...steady on gfs

gfs-0-294.thumb.png.49d8b2b3a4a985ad1756253ff6cbb145.pnggfs-1-294.thumb.png.44d0037693f4ece7db6b8a66e08322d6.png

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Kentspur Accomplished

Kentspur

Posted
  • Location: Live in NW Kent by the Thames & work in SE London
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy November to March and Sunny and warm April to October
  • Location: Live in NW Kent by the Thames & work in SE London
Posted
11 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

Whoah!!!,...steady on gfs

gfs-0-294.thumb.png.49d8b2b3a4a985ad1756253ff6cbb145.pnggfs-1-294.thumb.png.44d0037693f4ece7db6b8a66e08322d6.png

As Im not a fan of storms working outside most of the time I hope this verifies!

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Allseasons-Si Maestro

Allseasons-Si

Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
Posted

The day ten gefs 18z mean is a notch up from the 12z,...in fact a huge notch up

gens-31-1-240.thumb.png.b6555b871f5703eb103fe48a356d51e5.png

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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
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Posted (edited)

The Gfs 0z operational shows another plume mid September!…quite incredible charts for the time of year!, not to be sniffed at!..got my fan ready for the week ahead…and then again the following week?!!  ☀️ ⛈ ?  

8D5D3FAF-9020-44AF-BAA9-0E9B30BC6459.thumb.jpeg.b1b7b8a6b24d805d740346fa4101f5f8.jpegB3C6FF1D-A7F0-419B-8F17-57EA986EF84D.thumb.png.d443d0b67377f3377f794b608c364290.png2E1F114A-8525-4C06-8129-EF8AF66C908D.thumb.png.5a5ff711e92edeb0c8f07cf5c14bad93.png593A1FA4-E1CB-49F3-8D48-3029FA4C86CF.thumb.png.de1fdc6c6fde0a7d8b0a76f6f3c2f186.png

 

Edited by jon snow
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Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
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Posted

Aye, Karl, this morning's GFS 00Z looks rather quite spiffing!

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

But, how likely is the second warm spell really?

t850Bedfordshire.png    t2mBedfordshire.png

 

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mb018538 Maestro

mb018538

Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
Posted

image.thumb.png.0a93ed4812968d470faa5dd76e9d01bf.png

image.thumb.png.6d163e4dcd9a002c7badb1336e38ff04.png

image.thumb.png.e3bc42852faee286921111c2db63fb18.png

 

30c now showing on this mornings UKV run for both Tuesday and Wednesday. Quite a noteworthy spell coming up for the first half of next week, and well overdue after a terrible august!

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Newberryone Aficionado

Newberryone

Posted
  • Location: Cork, Ireland.
  • Weather Preferences: Storms frost snow heatwaves
  • Location: Cork, Ireland.
Posted (edited)

Not too sure as to why there hasn’t been any comments so far with regards to the overnight ecm run. Could it possibly be that it doesn’t appear right now to be singing from the same hymn sheet as the gfs in relation to another potential plume the week after next? Anyhow, the latest ecm would suggest quite mixed conditions setting in from around midweek but with nothing either that points to anything overly unsettled at this stage. 

Edited by Newberryone
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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted
58 minutes ago, Newberryone said:

Not too sure as to why there hasn’t been any comments so far with regards to the overnight ecm run. Could it possibly be that it doesn’t appear right now to be singing from the same hymn sheet as the gfs in relation to another potential plume the week after next?

No it’s because some of us have busy lives and can’t spend every minute of the day looking at models and posting on netweather! 

Anyway, not had chance yet to look at any model apart from the Gfs 0z op! ☀️

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Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Posted

Blimey, the GFS 06Z is good.      image.png.c38a30326c71afee19a44144b99e671b.png    

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

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Scorcher Veteran

Scorcher

Posted
  • Location: Wilmslow, Cheshire
  • Location: Wilmslow, Cheshire
Posted

For some areas we could see some of the highest temps in September for many years on Tuesday and Wednesday. Possibly not in the south, but outside the SE temperatures of 27C+ are not common in September.

I've often wondered what kind of temperatures we could have had in 2011 if the hot spell had come a couple of weeks earlier. Looks like we will have similar uppers to the September/October 2011 spell but perhaps not as much unbroken sunshine.

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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted

Although perhaps not quite as insanely amazing as the Gfs 0z op the 6z comes preety close in my amateur opinion!!!…in a nutshell, this September could put august to shame!..actually it will because the coming days will become hot for the time of year…August, hang your head in shame..if you even have a head? ….    ☀️ ⛈ 

CF969557-7316-4D6D-AA18-0C1D0BDD3863.thumb.png.62989a9b127d6db4ce92fe3790510040.png9D4E6CDD-9B23-4CA9-8FDE-D1B55F536CF4.thumb.png.1ec966818d56001fdf41a0d54127b7bb.png47CE7764-F212-4405-ADAB-FE2299CFECF5.thumb.png.d969e3216c94d7131d814dd656164b79.png410EBCAE-EA43-4509-996B-2344C2276363.thumb.png.3e7b1620e2dc06aa2115985f27ad12b0.png

 

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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted (edited)

Anyone who says the Gfs 12z op isn’t hot between early / mid next week…ignore them!..29/30c 85f is achievable which would be impressive enough in summer..but in early Autumn is great and it’s something the pathetic august failed to achieve with its paltry 27.2c being the highest..and that was in Scotland!!!! …anyway, if you like it very warm / hot?..enjoy!  

97DB06F8-41E7-4FD2-A931-06A41AE08FFB.thumb.png.29c9fb726384cf725f8f7879c749e887.png0B90D79A-64FB-4BBD-B68E-7060E41B304F.thumb.png.01a8c48187bcc6a48ec1eb997ae10181.pngAFFC3A55-CEB0-4E51-8D2D-DF05DCF008C2.thumb.png.dab8ee6ec94dc05096201e3737fd12fd.png1CF3A68F-FA61-40DF-8119-89F086B5854E.thumb.png.2be0d442460d32d1e046c96c325f3fd6.pngAA42EB3E-2470-41B5-91CF-C97DE45CD00E.thumb.png.921668d5e6c3405b5b35c34b48f870a3.png45A33DBC-979D-4EC9-A927-F0D723DDBE26.thumb.png.f0e0a7916035d83777eb61b1eb180827.png

August..Bow Your Head..to September!…  

420A5EC3-1760-482C-A918-5861FEDC76D4.thumb.gif.aeed7d9de0f11c6adfa1013a10b643d2.gif

Edited by jon snow
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MATTWOLVES 3 Maestro

MATTWOLVES 3

Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
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Posted

Lovely weather on the way early next week gang...could get very warm also. Nudging 30c with sufficient . 

Yes it breaks down beyond mid week..but guess what...GFS 12z says...we don't just wanna give you that...have some more of the same the following week!

Anymore of this and @Tamarawill be emigrating back to the UK

Seriously enjoy it if you can and have a splendid Saturday evening.

gfs-0-72.png

gfs-0-96.png

gfs-1-72.png

gfs-0-168.png

gfs-0-186.png

JFB2.gif

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Mike Poole Maestro

Mike Poole

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
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Posted

UKMO and GFS at T144:

3073557C-50B4-4D9C-A8D9-B4C7904CB2E6.thumb.gif.10535ee55de32f5e5530b081acb5688e.gif9DEE3821-6332-4309-8A1B-C9DE69FF8C20.thumb.png.55bcccb9f1c8ff9ea8980ef02d662efd.png

Pressure goes a bit slack here, but i prefer GFS take in terms of the trough being further west.  Ex-tropical storm enters stage left on UKMO.  But these things need to get closer while they have energy to have real impact.  You can see this on the GFS, here T168:

3D1F91E7-F568-4356-88D2-741108F44A43.thumb.jpeg.fa1e2dc2d9e562406a0a28170cbffede.jpeg

This run looking very promising, but what is providing the impetus?  The low marked X is, but the highlighted ex-tropical storm?  T192:

B6FBB581-084F-4E62-BB47-277127C724E0.thumb.png.4677e9243f939d890d0309f81c2cd46d.png

That storm has dissipated now.  So these things need to get in the right position to influence and this one doesn’t.  

81F020DC-31F9-4643-BAD1-AE1695B749F5.thumb.png.aa0ac1b07f421dfefbd401a0d17a0cb4.png

But this run does deliver for sure. Get in there

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Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Posted (edited)

The GFS 12Z is nae bad at T+249: foggy mornings, very warm and sunny afternoons? 

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

It reminds a bit of September 1973?

Edited by Ed Stone
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Mike Poole Maestro

Mike Poole

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
Posted (edited)
10 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

The GFS 12Z is nae bat at T+249: foggy mornings, very warm and sunny afternoons? 

h500slp.png    

It reminds a bit of September 1973?

What, this one?

76C81C48-2D98-41A4-A734-7E359C349EF9.thumb.png.b63f672f79fcecca8a0b4f369c3063fa.pngC6FD2988-2A6C-47BA-B579-946D368B1781.thumb.png.f66888c422e339daa23dcc09e024b83f.png

I’m struggling to remember, I was 2 at the time…

Edit 12z 2m temperatures were rather better than the midnight ones!, LOL

7F28B9DE-857A-4C5F-A70B-E2666B486443.thumb.png.5810d2daec924a9ac7753e9b7e5b6f7b.png

Edited by Mike Poole
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mushymanrob Maestro

mushymanrob

Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby
Posted
13 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

The GFS 12Z is nae bat at T+249: foggy mornings, very warm and sunny afternoons? 

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

It reminds a bit of September 1973?

yes to september 73, we had a cracking thunderstorm on the evening of the 15th, a huge line of storms drifted up from france.  the daytime was overcast but with high cloud and Ac, it was bright and humid..

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Mike Poole Maestro

Mike Poole

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
Posted (edited)

The cut off low that delivers on the later frames of the GFS, there on GEM too, here T240:

93EFB82B-0B89-41E9-B4B7-2CEB854A69AC.thumb.png.f8a14ae00a5d278ba5f10fc94de82ed1.png259FB2FE-B27E-4424-96D2-993D900BE88C.thumb.png.0df5dda284a78d1b592783730ef1fb8e.png

Uppers being squeezed there though, only about 1500 miles between 0C and +20C and the UK in the middle of that gradient.

Edited by Mike Poole
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Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Popular Post
Posted

Well, I think it's fair to say that the GFS 12Z operational run is almost too good to be true. The weather would still be balmy on the 20th were that run to verify!

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

image.thumb.png.2ad2115622659eed1983df2d05691003.png

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Mike Poole Maestro

Mike Poole

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
Posted
14 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

ECM T144 - a good scenario for ‘what happens next’?

8A8A9A98-A017-4738-A8BB-8761CA49B5BA.thumb.gif.82cece018ddb5df686ab2f71d4b7172c.gif

 

Answer, nothing happened.  There was no weather. Anywhere.

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Dancerwithwings Maestro

Dancerwithwings

Posted
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snow -20 would be nice :)
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)
Posted
1 hour ago, Mike Poole said:

What, this one?

76C81C48-2D98-41A4-A734-7E359C349EF9.thumb.png.b63f672f79fcecca8a0b4f369c3063fa.pngC6FD2988-2A6C-47BA-B579-946D368B1781.thumb.png.f66888c422e339daa23dcc09e024b83f.png

I’m struggling to remember, I was 2 at the time…

Edit 12z 2m temperatures were rather better than the midnight ones!, LOL

7F28B9DE-857A-4C5F-A70B-E2666B486443.thumb.png.5810d2daec924a9ac7753e9b7e5b6f7b.png

Lol...same age is me, instead of some on here throwing toys out of the pram ( winter ) I’m sure back in 73 we was probably throwing our dummies away

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Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Posted

Going by the GEFS 12Z temperature ensembles, the operational run's chances of verification look a tad doubtful!

t850Bedfordshire.png    t2mBedfordshire.png

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