model discussion Model output discussion 11th July onwards

[Methuselah]

Well, you know the going's good when Frosty brings his sofa out to play. Next week could be warm, chaps? Rather!

    

    

    

The man from Del Monte, he say 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

All summer many have been moaning about the lack of sun...the lack of Heat...the lack of storms!! And hey presto just as we head into Autumn...we could be about to be hit by all 3!! Simply amazing....only in the UK Folks...only in the UK..

[Frosty.]

Seriously guys, and I’m being serious here, Shirley the ECM 12z op is a warm, dare I say very warm run?…I’m no expert but seriously Shirley… , it could be warm next week?  ⛈ 

 

[mb018538]

 

Not quite sure why, but ecm tonight has heavy cloud cover and showers on Monday and Tuesday with max temps only showing around 24/25c. Definitely down a notch on yesterday and not looking all that impressive!

[mb018538]

UKV has less in the way of cloud and higher temps…

[MATTWOLVES 3]

2 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

 

Not quite sure why, but ecm tonight has heavy cloud cover and showers on Monday and Tuesday with max temps only showing around 24/25c. Definitely down a notch on yesterday and not looking all that impressive!

Met office updated app for here as 25c and unbroken  

Could be higher elsewhere..

Give Shaky a few minutes and he will be on to say he doesn't rate that model

Only joking mate..looking good  next week.

[Guest]

12 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

 

Not quite sure why, but ecm tonight has heavy cloud cover and showers on Monday and Tuesday with max temps only showing around 24/25c. Definitely down a notch on yesterday and not looking all that impressive!

It’s the new 2021 style south easterly, fully laden with cloud and drizzle. 

[Mapantz]

More positive on the UKV:

 

[Frosty.]

Holy smokes Batman!..what an incredible ECM 12z ensemble mean for much of next week!…plume here we come!…Shirley?!   ⛈  

[Mike Poole]

ECM clusters!  Quite a bit to get through, starting with the T72-T96 charts, and there are FIVE clusters:

All end up with Scandi blocking (red border) but there are nuances here, I think the low to the west of Portugal is significant here, as it props up the high in a variety of different ways.  T120-T168:

4 clusters all blocked, this looks now like the most certain forecast period for the UK.  T192-T240:

From the op runs, you might have expected it all to collapse from this point.  But it doesn’t look like it, cluster 1 with 22 members holds the block and looks v plumey!  Some support from cluster 4 too (7 members).  Let’s just see the next week out before worrying about what is to come, but the idea that it is a short-lived warm and potentially thundery spell has yet to be confirmed, plenty of options in the mix to the contrary, I would say.

Maybe the ghostly face in the Atlantic speaks volumes, that is where the mobility is, ECM spread T240:

Edited September 2, 2021 by Mike Poole

[StingJet]

1 hour ago, MATTWOLVES said:

All summer many have been moaning about the lack of sun...the lack of Heat...the lack of storms!! And hey presto just as we head into Autumn...we could be about to be hit by all 3!! Simply amazing....only in the UK Folks...only in the UK..

For sure mate ..  this is becoming the norm hey?   Summer synoptics in Autumn , Winter Synoptics in Spring , Autumn Synoptics in Summer   and just about anything else at any other time.   We just have one season now where anything goes  .. lol

[MATTWOLVES 3]

On 02/09/2021 at 21:41, StingJet said:

For sure mate ..  this is becoming the norm hey?   Summer synoptics in Autumn , Winter Synoptics in Spring , Autumn Synoptics in Summer   and just about anything else at any other time.   We just have one season now where anything goes  .. lol

For sure mate.

Here's an update from tonight's EC46 mean..

Very summery into next week and very warm potentially! It looks like a breakdown towards the end of next week and further on..Lower Heights becoming more of a key player...so windier conditions with rain and showers around at times...but not necessarily a wash out by any means!

Does this spell the end?

Absolutely not.. in fact strong signal for Heights to rebuild towards the South quite strongly as we enter the final 3rd!

To sum up...its very warm and settled to start...it breaks down in the run up to mid month...but potentially becomes more settled and warmer for the final 3rd!

 

 

Edited September 2, 2021 by Mapantz

[Guest]

Washout incoming on the 0z. So much for the warm 'spell'?

[Frosty.]

To briefly sum up next week on the Gfs 0z operational, for many areas the first half of next week is hot (yes hot) with plenty of sunshine but from midweek there’s thundery showers / storms as the fine spell ends with a bang but even the second half of next week temps are above average, well into the low / mid 20’s c across the southern half of the u k…so…considering it’s autumn now, next week would be classed as summery!!…beyond that it turns cooler and more unsettled for a time but the run ends with high pressure building in again. ..

ps…the Gfs tends to underestimate maxima so if the general pattern is correct, I wouldn’t be surprised to see 30-31c recorded somewhere across England next Tuesday which would be the peak of the hot spell?august by comparison was truly pathetic with nowhere in the u k getting above 27.2c!!!!

Edited September 3, 2021 by jon snow

[Methuselah]

The latter stages of this morning's GFS 00Z have a certain deja-vu about them; the early stages look okay:

    

    

    

[mb018538]

2 hours ago, DCee said:

Washout incoming on the 0z. So much for the warm 'spell'?

Not sure where you've got that from? UKV this morning shows 28c Monday and 29c Tuesday.

[Frosty.]

Listen very carefully, I shall say this only once!! ..Very, very impressive summery conditions on the ECM 0z operational next week, would blow august out of the water, a truly pathetic month!!…anyway, hot sun, increasing humidity then BANG! ⛈  

[Frosty.]

Not always does a u k hot spell end with a thundery pay-off but I think this one will! …anyway, the ECM 0z ensemble mean (like the op) suggests very warm / hot and mainly sunny early next week giving way to increasing humidity and thundery potential as pressure slowly falls, probably a thundery trough during the second half of next week?   ⛈ ?  

 

[mushymanrob]

Im not expecting clear blue sunny skies for the duration of the coming warm spell... imho itll be bright/hazy with patchy low cloud. .... and itll be muggy/humid...

[Polar Maritime]

Temps touching 30c in some parts next Tuesday, As Mushy says it will more than likely be a cloudy humid affair though.

 

[Atmogenic]

29 minutes ago, Polar Maritime said:

Temps touching 30c in some parts next Tuesday, As Mushy says it will more than likely be a cloudy humid affair though.

 

And that's why my hopes aren't that high up, it's lovely to hear the excitement and conditions but if there is cloud in the way just like what we've been having most of august. Then its really not that great, but time will tell when it gets to that period

[Frosty.]

18 minutes ago, Atmogenic said:

And that's why my hopes aren't that high up, it's lovely to hear the excitement and conditions but if there is cloud in the way just like what we've been having most of august. Then its really not that great, but time will tell when it gets to that period

Agreed but at least we are gradually losing that vile cloudy  NE’ly flow off the North Sea and will be switching to a continental SE’ly which should mean less or no vile low cloud and much more in the way of sunshine before those lovely thunder clouds brew up around midweek..I would say hot and hazy early next week which is nae bad for early autumn? 

Edited September 3, 2021 by jon snow

[mb018538]

2 hours ago, Polar Maritime said:

Temps touching 30c in some parts next Tuesday, As Mushy says it will more than likely be a cloudy humid affair though.

 

White means no cloud on that scale....most of the UK on the UKV run has 30-40% cloud cover. Doesn't look bad to me! Nothing like what we've had this last 7-10 days for many.

[Downburst]

Apart from the week 13 to 20 when Europe North Atlantic is +NAO the ECM 46 day looks like it could be good, perhaps normal for September.  Essentially predominant European Block. 

The week following the 20th at 500hPa and anomaly predicts this (although the confidence is low considering the first chart I think)

And for the two weeks following that

 

Looking at the MJO and it is forecast to amplify and get  going more than of late, hopefully ending in an excellent early autumn outcome.

[mb018538]

11 minutes ago, Downburst said:

Apart from the week 13 to 20 when Europe North Atlantic is +NAO the ECM 46 day looks like it could be good, perhaps normal for September.  Essentially predominant European Block. 

The week following the 20th at 500hPa and anomaly predicts this (although the confidence is low considering the first chart I think)

And for the two weeks following that

 

Looking at the MJO and it is forecast to amplify and get  going more than of late, hopefully ending in an excellent early autumn outcome.

Looks good as you say - I'd be a bit wary though...



This was the ECM 500hpa forecast from Monday 30th August for the 6th-13th Sep, so only 5 days ago.....look how wrong it's going to be:



Hurricane Ida partially to blame for the error.....and with major hurricane Larry in play, then anything is possible!

Edited September 3, 2021 by mb018538