SE, London and East Anglia regional discussion - 5th Sept 21 onwards

[Blazerblue]

Thick fog descended here a couple of hours ago, as a gentleman said to me whilst on the evening dog walk, its a rather Dickensian evening. Temp 6 and has been around that all day.

[Captain Shortwave]

Second Christmas Day update. Now at T168.

GFS

A band of rain will spread across the southern half of England, this is associated with that low feature sheering away from the parent low to our south west. This will be clearing by the evening. So a wet Christmas Day on this run and pretty chilly.

GEM

A decaying front should have died out by the morning, but another front will move in from the south west during the day. It will be cold enough for the rain to turn to sleet and snow in places. Probably a lot of cloud around on this run obviously.

UKMO

 

Because of a complication from some shallow areas of low pressure that are not modelled on the other runs. The UKMO has a surface high over Denmark. This produces a fine and dry day with plenty of sunshine and a gentle ESE breeze. It will be cold with temperatures around 2-4c and frosts early and late.

ECM

 

A cold easterly wind for all, maybe some early precipitation along the south coast, but otherwise sunshine will dominate. There should be some scattered showers or snow flurries towards the coasts. Feeling cold, especially in the south of the region, where there would be more of a breeze.

Overall story, the cyclonic solutions have dropped away today, though there is still a good possibility of there being wet weather. However colder weather is a lot closer, or even over us entirely. So there is a chance of a white Christmas with the odds looking much better or today’s 12z suite.

[clark3r]

Been thinking today, last time there was decent snow where I live to go sledging was March 2013 since then any snow event has been not enough for sledging etc, when I was younger I remember meaning full snow falls. And used to go sledging most winters maybe once a year. This must be part of global warming. Any way models are showing we are in with at least a chance of snowfall over the Christmas new year period. Let’s hope this winter will stop my poor run of winters 

[Freeze]

9 minutes ago, clark3r said:

Been thinking today, last time there was decent snow where I live to go sledging was March 2013 since then any snow event has been not enough for sledging etc, when I was younger I remember meaning full snow falls. And used to go sledging most winters maybe once a year. This must be part of global warming. Any way models are showing we are in with at least a chance of snowfall over the Christmas new year period. Let’s hope this winter will stop my poor run of winters 

Ahh, March 2013 when we had those easterlies and the last true channel low. T'was the last good dumping in this area.

[snowrye]

11 minutes ago, Freeze said:

Ahh, March 2013 when we had those easterlies and the last true channel low. T'was the last good dumping in this area.

What a beauty it was

[Tn9]

6 hours ago, Captain Shortwave said:

Second Christmas Day update. Now at T168.

GFS

A band of rain will spread across the southern half of England, this is associated with that low feature sheering away from the parent low to our south west. This will be clearing by the evening. So a wet Christmas Day on this run and pretty chilly.

GEM

A decaying front should have died out by the morning, but another front will move in from the south west during the day. It will be cold enough for the rain to turn to sleet and snow in places. Probably a lot of cloud around on this run obviously.

UKMO

 

Because of a complication from some shallow areas of low pressure that are not modelled on the other runs. The UKMO has a surface high over Denmark. This produces a fine and dry day with plenty of sunshine and a gentle ESE breeze. It will be cold with temperatures around 2-4c and frosts early and late.

ECM

 

A cold easterly wind for all, maybe some early precipitation along the south coast, but otherwise sunshine will dominate. There should be some scattered showers or snow flurries towards the coasts. Feeling cold, especially in the south of the region, where there would be more of a breeze.

Overall story, the cyclonic solutions have dropped away today, though there is still a good possibility of there being wet weather. However colder weather is a lot closer, or even over us entirely. So there is a chance of a white Christmas with the odds looking much better or today’s 12z suite.

the low pressure that's  the firing the  front north is ..if you look back two maybe three weeks ago ,proper fi anyways ,was smaller and further south and east ,mid France even which gave us a nice easterly ,but whats the odds that now, it goes to far north and it turns to snow but much to far north for us ,lincolnshire -ish ,weaker and further south for the atlantic low would do us favour 

[Captain Shortwave]

7 hours ago, TN9 said:

the low pressure that's  the firing the  front north is ..if you look back two maybe three weeks ago ,proper fi anyways ,was smaller and further south and east ,mid France even which gave us a nice easterly ,but whats the odds that now, it goes to far north and it turns to snow but much to far north for us ,lincolnshire -ish ,weaker and further south for the atlantic low would do us favour 

Gut feeling is the the front might not make much progress into our part of the world, or at the very least be out of the way for the big day. The UKMO and ECM taking a more ‘Dry and crisp Christmas’ approach with some wintry showers along the coasts. Other models on the 00z still bring precipitation up to Christmas itself so it isn’t a done deal, though the ECM/UKMO agreement significantly increases the chances of that solution being closer to the mark.
Personally I would prefer cold and dry over wet (With the front too far north) anyway. That is in the event of snow not being on the menu.

[Tn9]

47 minutes ago, Captain Shortwave said:

Gut feeling is the the front might not make much progress into our part of the world, or at the very least be out of the way for the big day. The UKMO and ECM taking a more ‘Dry and crisp Christmas’ approach with some wintry showers along the coasts. Other models on the 00z still bring precipitation up to Christmas itself so it isn’t a done deal, though the ECM/UKMO agreement significantly increases the chances of that solution being closer to the mark.
Personally I would prefer cold and dry over wet (With the front too far north) anyway. That is in the event of snow not being on the menu.

Yea I see what you mean ,I have now looked at other models ,I try too keep it simple ( like myself lol)I have ,we all have overtime spend many hours pondering away over charts (which is half the fun I guess till what you wanted doesn't happen, to me ,gfs isn't perfect but a lot better than few years back but this time I blame ,if it goes like it says the lacklustre high the jet dives south but the high doesn't want to know ,takes two to tango ..fingers crossed though eh

[slater]

The latest 6z is showing double digits for Christmas in this part of the world, all the hype from last few days gone in a quick of a flash 

 .

 

 

[Blazerblue]

Another day, more cloud, mist and drizzle, when will it ever end!

[Methuselah]

3 minutes ago, Blazerblue said:

Another day, more cloud, mist and drizzle, when will it ever end!

But, should we be really lucky and temperatures fall of a few degrees, the drizzle might turn to slizzle!

[MAF]

2 hours ago, Blazerblue said:

Another day, more cloud, mist and drizzle, when will it ever end!

well it is winter, and at least its single figure on the thermometer. rather have a nice foggy cool day in winter than a double figure, warm rain and unseasonal stuff  

[okidoke]

2 hours ago, slater said:

The latest 6z is showing double digits for Christmas in this part of the world, all the hype from last few days gone in a quick of a flash 

 .

 

 

and lets be honest it got exciting but been here before will always be wet and mild at christmas! but for a second we lived in a dream lol

[Tn9]

1 hour ago, okidoke said:

and lets be honest it got exciting but been here before will always be wet and mild at christmas! but for a second we lived in a dream lol

But we still could ..but not on the 25th but lots of chances ..give or  take till new year but relying on back ends of low pressure to snatch us some cold air Down from north or east is at best dodgy and unreliable to the point of looking day to day, but we are used to that ,some people have just 2  parts of jigsaw to slot together and bingo..we, I'm afraid have 100 bits to get in position ..but it does look good when it done

[Tn9]

On a psychological note instead of a meteorological one if we was guaranteed snow say ..by the great lakes etc or wherever, we would not be excited about getting it,then the only thing to float your boat would be how much and stormy blizzards, ,depth of drifts etc etc ,we hit heaven when we see a flake in the lampost light ..over the moon ,they would think we are nuts ..but it is what it is ..:-( 

Edited December 19, 2021 by TN9

[Daniel*]

Foggiest day of winter here in London, we’ve had a lot of cloud, little in way of fog till now. It’s chilly too 4C.. 

[MAF]

1 hour ago, Daniel* said:

Foggiest day of winter here in London, we’ve had a lot of cloud, little in way of fog till now. It’s chilly too 4C.. 

I can just about see the top of the Shard and Canary Wharf from here. novly light shows from them both in this misty weather  

[Captain Shortwave]

Evening all, another rather dank day with mist, fog and drizzle aplenty.

Time of the 12z suite round up...

GFS

The big day itself looks mild and patchy outbreaks of rain. There will be heavier stuff moving through during the evening with strengthening south westerly winds. Temperatures reaching double figures in places.

UKMO

Unfortunately it is currently the outlier solution of the pack tonight. Maybe some rain/sleet/snow in the far south. Elsewhere conditions likely to be dry and bright and cold. Low single figure maxima.

GEM

Outbreaks of rain early and late (Quite similar to the GFS). Temperatures close to normal as unlike the GFS there isn't a full blooded southwesterly.

ECM

Again there will be outbreaks of rain across the region, temperatures close to or a little above normal.

The ensembles tend to favour a wet and fairly mild Christmas overall tonight. The UKMO being the outside solution. It isn't a done deal by any means, however the loss of core heights to the north west makes it increasingly difficult to hold the jetstream south of the UK.

After the past couple of years, I would say we are due a bit of good fortune. Lets hope it is our time.....

[Paul]

Good evening SE'ers - tomorrow will see a change for this region as you become the next one to move over to our new regional group system. That'll mean more space to spread out, including the option for multiple threads, a SE gallery and a built in members map as a start. 

To give you an idea of what's to come, those in Scotland have been using the new system for a little while:

https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/192-scottish-weather-discussion/

[Floatylight]

21 minutes ago, Paul said:

Good evening SE'ers - tomorrow will see a change for this region as you become the next one to move over to our new regional group system. That'll mean more space to spread out, including the option for multiple threads, a SE gallery and a built in members map as a start. 

To give you an idea of what's to come, those in Scotland have been using the new system for a little while:

https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/192-scottish-weather-discussion/

Oh wow  

[Floatylight]

2 hours ago, Captain Shortwave said:

Evening all, another rather dank day with mist, fog and drizzle aplenty.

Time of the 12z suite round up...

GFS

The big day itself looks mild and patchy outbreaks of rain. There will be heavier stuff moving through during the evening with strengthening south westerly winds. Temperatures reaching double figures in places.

UKMO

Unfortunately it is currently the outlier solution of the pack tonight. Maybe some rain/sleet/snow in the far south. Elsewhere conditions likely to be dry and bright and cold. Low single figure maxima.

GEM

Outbreaks of rain early and late (Quite similar to the GFS). Temperatures close to normal as unlike the GFS there isn't a full blooded southwesterly.

ECM

Again there will be outbreaks of rain across the region, temperatures close to or a little above normal.

The ensembles tend to favour a wet and fairly mild Christmas overall tonight. The UKMO being the outside solution. It isn't a done deal by any means, however the loss of core heights to the north west makes it increasingly difficult to hold the jetstream south of the UK.

After the past couple of years, I would say we are due a bit of good fortune. Lets hope it is our time.....

Love the updates.

Thank you cap

[Freeze]

31 minutes ago, Paul said:

Good evening SE'ers - tomorrow will see a change for this region as you become the next one to move over to our new regional group system. That'll mean more space to spread out, including the option for multiple threads, a SE gallery and a built in members map as a start. 

To give you an idea of what's to come, those in Scotland have been using the new system for a little while:

https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/192-scottish-weather-discussion/

How will the region spread out?

[snowrye]

You know it's curtains for us on the snow front, when darren, at least it will be mild, bett is wheeled out

[Floatylight]

39 minutes ago, snowrye said:

You know it's curtains for us on the snow front, when darren, at least it will be mild, bett is wheeled out

Yes so I heard.

I don't know how he can make such a statement.when the models are a still a over the place.

Corrections north,then south.

North, South .

Now slightly south again.

Could well be further south tomorrow!

[Nick F]

Although it would be nice have snow on Christmas Day, for those seeing family before the inevitable lockdown, be nice not to have to worry about snow and ice travelling. Not been looking likely for a day or so now and unlikely to come back, but between Boxing Day and New Year there's still potential for us in the south IMO. Marginal of course.