model discussion Model output discussion - closing in on Winter

[Paul_1978]

On 19/11/2021 at 07:04, cyclonic happiness said:

This is probably the usual 'pre cold spell wobble' we're all used to. i'll wait until wednesday next week before writing anything off.  fingers crossed all!

Indeed - people have wobbles, not models!

[SLEETY]

People  look too much in fl then get disappointed when the mega charts in  fl  don't come off, when they enter the more reliable time-frame. 

That's the problem looking so far ahead, charts hardly ever verify,. 

 

Still time for upgrades though. 

[mb018538]

A quick look at last night's ECM update:

Blocked and settled weather to dominate through from the 6th-20th December?



A more active MJO passage through phase 6/7 could emerge into December. Analogues both show high pressure out to the W/NW:

[Climate Man]

Actually happy with that. No widespread snow but will help to cool ground and sea temperature, would feel seasonal and bright crisp days.

[winterof79]

Worth keeping an eye on the jet stream later in the weekend as it interacts with potential tropical storms  firstly over either side of India and then over SE Asia creating a surge over the Pacific and is critical to the jet pulse over the Conus and then up over Greenland.

Edited November 19, 2021 by winterof79

[bluearmy]

3 hours ago, CreweCold said:

Next week really does look pretty feeble now

Let's see if we can at least maintain the second bite

of course there Is always a chance of a wintry surprise or two when the charts are headed in this direction but it has to be acknowledged that next week is a wintry fail based on what the models were showing just 48/72 hours ago. The heights in the Atlantic simply fail to gain enough traction north for more than a day before dumbelling around - the features running around the high are also not taking in Arctic air as they don’t have to get far enough north. Hence their warm cores don’t modify as they would if they took a little longer to get around the ridge and take in true arctic air. This has a knock on effect of forcing them to deepen heading se with their ‘warmth’ set against the Arctic airmass to their northeast.

So what follows? Will another amplification prove more resistant to background mobility and get further north and stick for more than a day?  It’s possible but the form horse would be a repeat cycle - note euro set up will be a little different if we can sustain the flow for a couple days and run some disturbances south within it .

 

[Ali1977]

The ECM mean is actually an improvement at day 8/9 compared the yesterday’s 12z!! 

 

Edited November 19, 2021 by Ali1977

[IDO]

Def a more seasonal spell incoming, even in the south, with uppers below average for around 10-days.

London 850's: 

We saw last year when in a similar NH profile, that is a trop led Atlantic pulse, that these are transient (most likely) and that models in FI start with a GH then downgrade as we close in on the reliable. So the current charts reflect what we should expect based on experience alone. The questions are where the trough sits and what follows as we enter "true" Winter? Last Winter after these events we had a short period of the tPV cycling to our north, but way too early for any conclusions from current deep FI output.

[mulzy]

FWIW, outer range of the *mean* ext EPS suggests a westerly flow over the UK with heights to the south (classic France-Spain high pressure). 

Edited November 19, 2021 by mulzy

[blizzard81]

Certainly downgrades over the last 48 hours with regards to intensity of cold and that gfs op is cack. However, imo the direction of travel is principally the same. It will get colder and it will feel seasonal to say the least. I actually don't think many would have seen the white stuff even if those better runs had come off to be honest. The ecm op and mean is still decent this morning as well. We should remember that the charts could look so much worse right now. Enjoy. 

[Griff]

10 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

The ECM mean is actually an improvement at day 8/9 compared the yesterday’s 12z!! 

 

Taking on faith the discussion on this forum last night, I'm not entirely surprised (but I am a bit relieved). 

[sheikhy]

5 minutes ago, mulzy said:

FWIW, outer range of the ext *mean* EPS suggests a westerly flow over the UK with heights to the south (classic France-Spain high pressure). 

Thanks for the extra negative news mulzy!!!!i guess we just need to enjoy whatever frost we get now in the next 3 weeks!!

[mulzy]

4 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Thanks for the extra negative news mulzy!!!!i guess we just need to enjoy whatever frost we get now in the next 3 weeks!!

Keep the faith, the sub-seasonal EPS last night suggested plenty of interest through December.  

[bluearmy]

7 minutes ago, mulzy said:

Keep the faith, the sub-seasonal EPS last night suggested plenty of interest through December.  

Yes - no signs that any euro slug high will hold down there for any lengthy period 

[Beanz]

46 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

of course there Is always a chance of a wintry surprise or two when the charts are headed in this direction but it has to be acknowledged that next week is a wintry fail based on what the models were showing just 48/72 hours ago. The heights in the Atlantic simply fail to gain enough traction north for more than a day before dumbelling around - the features running around the high are also not taking in Arctic air as they don’t have to get far enough north. Hence their warm cores don’t modify as they would if they took a little longer to get around the ridge and take in true arctic air. This has a knock on effect of forcing them to deepen heading se with their ‘warmth’ set against the Arctic airmass to their northeast.

So what follows? Will another amplification prove more resistant to background mobility and get further north and stick for more than a day?  It’s possible but the form horse would be a repeat cycle - note euro set up will be a little different if we can sustain the flow for a couple days and run some disturbances south within it .

 

I dont think anybody with a bit of experience and common sense is going to acknowledge any thing of the sort.  

It’s not a wintery fail.  

[knocker]

26 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Yes - no signs that any euro slug high will hold down there for any lengthy period 

But sticking to the mantra of the thread........there is always hope  And in addition it has been noted that Sidney has not been in a frenzy to store lately....always a good sign

[Anthony Burden]

1 hour ago, mb018538 said:

A quick look at last night's ECM update:

Blocked and settled weather to dominate through from the 6th-20th December?



A more active MJO passage through phase 6/7 could emerge into December. Analogues both show high pressure out to the W/NW:

Hi some great illustrations very informative.

[Jeremy Shockey]

ECM 0z ensemble mean ( 850's )

Not a bad ECM 0z mean ( even if the graph needs to be extended at the bottom to show the -6 isotherm ).

Looking forward to what happens after 25th Nov that's for sure

[Anthony Burden]

Morning all,GFS on it’s own on low pressure track from 168hrs to 192 hrs bringing low over U.K. less cold

while ECM/GEM showing much colder theme with low tracking to our northeast and more direct arctic 

northerly blast.will be watching with a keen eye on the track of this low if it happens of course.

[knocker]

33 minutes ago, Beanz said:

I dont think anybody with a bit of experience and common sense is going to acknowledge any thing of the sort.  

It’s not a wintery fail.  

You convenienty missed out the qualification that followed..."based on what the models were showing just 48/72 hours ago"

[Bobd29]

16 minutes ago, knocker said:

But sticking to the mantra of the thread........there is always hope  And in addition it has been noted that Sidney has not been in a frenzy to store lately....always a good sign

Welcome back Sidney, I am sure it times to come he will join the likes of seaweed in weather folklore.

[mb018538]

6 minutes ago, Anthony Burden said:

Hi some great illustrations very informative.

Thanks!

I think that if you can put some clear pictures up to support/explain any posts that you make (without bias), it just makes life easier for everybody.

Anyone can pick a single ensemble member out at day 15 showing a blizzard...I don't find that sort of stuff helpful, to be honest.

[Mark Smithy]

With regards to the apparent stand off between the GFS and the rest of the world, the GFS may be right with its hasty return to flat zonality, but looking at the ensembles it can't even agree with itself.

I'm siding with the Europeans. Not because I am one but because I think we're in for a major pattern shift. JMA, GEM, UKMO and ECM are all cold to very cold runs. Enough to blast everyone out of mild complacency anyway 

p..s oh and the GFS has performed very poorly for months

Edited November 19, 2021 by Mark Smithy

[draztik]

9 minutes ago, Anthony Burden said:

Morning all,GFS on it’s own on low pressure track from 168hrs to 192 hrs bringing low over U.K. less cold

while ECM/GEM showing much colder theme with low tracking to our northeast and more direct arctic 

northerly blast.will be watching with a keen eye on the track of this low if it happens of course.

Been here before, haven't we.

You really want the GFS on your side in these setups. 

[Mark Smithy]

2 minutes ago, draztik said:

Been here before, haven't we.

You really want the GFS on your side in these setups. 

Perhaps but it has been wrong so many times in recent months whereas ECM has been far more accurate.