model discussion Model output discussion - closing in on Winter

[Chesil View]

Given that we can only work with what the various signal mjo ,eamt, etc suggest  then Nick F's post makes a very sensible summing up of the possible outcome going forward into mid December and beyond.

As for any lowland snow this wknd that will very much be down to now casting rather than forecasting.

 

Edited November 24, 2021 by Broadmayne blizzard

[TSNWK]

ECM keeps hope alive.. with no real sign of the vortex over Greenland at day 9 and if anything a wedge of flimsy heights to our north...

We have a stay....

[swfc]

Good grief what's all the panic lol. Tbh folk were posting charts for snow depths on Monday for Sat sun? The said low hasn't formed yet and I'd be sure it won't be correct position Friday. The PV has been gaining traction to the nnw but it's late November!! //coupling of some sort will come but give it while mid /late December. Imo that's the time scale before any ridging /blocking may bring something better, relax

[booferking]

1 minute ago, TSNWK said:

ECM keeps hope alive.. with no real sign of the vortex over Greenland at day 9 and if anything a wedge of flimsy heights to our north...

We have a stay....

Yea thank goodness for that compare the 2 below hopefully gfs doing what it's programmed to and going off in one.

[carinthian]

1 minute ago, TSNWK said:

ECM keeps hope alive.. with no real sign of the vortex over Greenland at day 9 and if anything a wedge of flimsy heights to our north...

We have a stay....

Yes, keeps much of the British Isles in the colder air mass for the next 10 days. Some deep cold getting established over Scandi -land. Milder zonal Atlantic having a struggle to dominate on this particular ECM run. 

C

[TSNWK]

Naughty ECM.  2 hour delay and the stress...

Time for a cuppa and then the 06z it's relentless.   

[throwoff]

Are people really posting snow depth charts for 4am Saturday and calling the winter a failure??

The snow is only meant to get to vast swathes of the country by 4am, and snow depth charts are notoriously iffy especially 4 days out...

[northwestsnow]

Perhaps I'm either reading EC wrong ,or being a Grinch ...

I was thinking the opposite to the above regrading ec ...

Atlantic sector looks poor to me ..

 

[Methuselah]

It looks like snow could fall just about anywhere this weekend. I don't want to speculate as to where or how much. But I've got a feeling I live in one place that'll see nothing. That's why it's called the Triangle of Doom!

    

[Man With Beard]

Winds for Sat on GFS 06Z back to yesterday's plan, Northumberland 80mph+, 70mph possible through a line going through west midlands.

[Tim Bland]

I’d be happy with 2-3cm in November as a warm up for winter …

[tight isobar]

On 24/11/2021 at 09:54, northwestsnow said:

Perhaps I'm either reading EC wrong ,or being a Grinch ...

I was thinking the opposite to the above regrading ec ...

Atlantic sector looks poor to me ..

 

We’ll look at the eps on this shortly. But the last frame @240 looks highly aligned for more blocking to follow.. shortly after - it’s all looking a relatively milder blip.. as the models look to eleviate the mobile scene

Edited November 24, 2021 by tight isobar

[northwestsnow]

Day 8 and we see plenty of cold air to our north.

We need a bit of amplification in the Atlantic to allow the cold uppers to hit the UK...

[Scandinavian High.]

1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

Day 8 and we see plenty of cold air to our north.

We need a bit of amplification in the Atlantic to allow the cold uppers to hit the UK...

And Scandinavia looks really cold be nice tap into some of that .

[northwestsnow]

Much better from 6z !

This is what I was hoping EC would show...

Edited November 24, 2021 by northwestsnow

[tight isobar]

Gfs6z firming on 2nd northerly shot, and for me those uppers are moderated- I’d expect a climb down as we near.. but again we shall see. Edit; as dictated by the nxt few frames @ 850s

Edited November 24, 2021 by tight isobar

[Neilsouth]

Crazy cold to our far north and into Scandi though, I haven't seen that for many years! It's usually mild all the way up through Europe from strong south westerlies

[swfc]

Gfs 6z better ridging for now 

[Bogman]

On 24/11/2021 at 10:12, Tim Bland said:

I’d be happy with 2-3cm in November as a warm up for winter …

So would I. F'nar, F'nar.

[Methuselah]

Yes, people, I like this! Not because it'll necessarily deliver lowland snowfall, but because it hints at a self-sustaining set-up?

     

[tight isobar]

The pressure on the vortex is notable!- and the Pacific ridge is becoming a thorn in its side!.(Nina- consequence?) I’m sure we’ll see the forcing on this - especially on the Canadian lobe. With a more defined syphon to the north eastern quadrant!. For me it’s again a case of slow- yet notable model deciphering on the la- Nina input.

[damianslaw]

9 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Much better from 6z !

This is what I was hoping EC would show...

I said the other day the models are underestimating the depth of cold to our NE establishing itself and this will act as a block to any Atlantic attack which to my eyes still looks weak despite some suggestion of a strong PV to our NW.. key to keeping it at bay is the trop leading the way and not the strat combined with some favourable impacts from tropical convection.. keeping a degree of amplification of heights to our west is important these don't need to be significant even if they sink a bit south it won't matter they will be easy to gain a foothold north again.. and most probably heading NE..

[Battleground Snow]

Would be good if we could get some height rises across scandi... Mjo assisted?.

Genoa low is in place too.

[TSNWK]

On 24/11/2021 at 10:39, Battleground Snow said:

Would be good if we could get some height rises across scandi... Mjo assisted?.

Genoa low is in place too.

Heights definitely building through us and then north on this run

 

[tight isobar]

A link to Scandinavia??  Another prod here?