model discussion Model output discussion - closing in on Winter

[raul_sbd]

On 25/11/2021 at 15:59, northwestsnow said:

One man's gain is another man's pain..

As always the NW snow shield in full effect! Not that was hopping for anything here in Mcr

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Icon insists on another bite at the cherry come later next week...and perhaps another reload come day 8!

Sometimes other models will follow the icon...dont hold me to this,but its been known!

I'm optimistic Exeter may have this wrong,

Although I may have a serious cold bias,and be howling at the moon

Come on guys stop talking about West Midlands snowfall,I'm waxing down the sledge runners here

Edited November 25, 2021 by MATTWOLVES

[Kentspur]

7 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES said:

Icon insists on another bite at the cherry come later next week...and perhaps another reload come day 8!

Sometimes other models will follow the icon...dont hold me to this,but its been known!

I'm optimistic Exeter may have this wrong,

Although I may have a serious cold bias,and be howling at the moon

Come on guys stop talking about West Midlands snowfall,I'm waxing down the sledge runners here

This gives me promise for some of the white stuff until today BBC has shown snow when I'm up in the Highlands for this period it now shows rain! But surely not given this is only a few days away 

[The Northern Ramper]

8 minutes ago, raul_sbd said:

As always the NW snow shield in full effect! Not that was hopping for anything here in Mcr

It will definitely be a nowcast event.

[northwestsnow]

Damn the Northern arm .

look at all the freezing cold air sat across N Scandy waiting to drop south ..

very frustrating...

[offerman]

18 hours ago, MATTWOLVES said:

There is no land mass when it's a direct Nthly...its travelling across sea,hence a gradual moderation of the 850 temps...if it was travelling across land mass,the air would be quite a bit colder! 

Unless your making reference to the land mass it encounters as it travels from Scotland,further South!

Hi Matt,

yes I mean the landmass from when it reaches Scotland Southwards. 
I do understand that there is no direct landmass to the north of the UK. 

my point being is that quite often when weather systems come down from the north it’s often the north of England and Scotland that bear the brunt and head south it quite often fizzles out as much of the moisture has been sucked out because of the mountains of Scotland and high hills of northern England. 
so with regards to moisture totals they are often greatly reduced once they reach the South. 

in the south a different story when a low-pressure comes in off the Atlantic that brings a heck of a lot of precipitation and quite often the best scenario down here is when that precipitation is undercut by cold air. 
 

I was initially answering somebody as well that also mentioned that why are precipitation forecasts totals not that high from such a vigourous looking low pressure system and I was just trying to explain because of the direction it’s coming in from north to south that’s most likely why

[TSNWK]

On 25/11/2021 at 16:16, northwestsnow said:

Damn the Northern arm .

look at all the freezing cold air sat across N Scandy waiting to drop south ..

very frustrating...

Yep. Sadly no ridging  into scandi on this run. Going flat at 180

[offerman]

18 hours ago, MATTWOLVES said:

There is no land mass when it's a direct Nthly...its travelling across sea,hence a gradual moderation of the 850 temps...if it was travelling across land mass,the air would be quite a bit colder! 

Unless your making reference to the land mass it encounters as it travels from Scotland,further South!

Also just to add onto my last post to you. 
if we get snow showers coming in off the east coast initially they affect slightly inland areas of the North Sea occasionally they can penetrate further inland especially on stronger winds.

Snow showers from the north don’t penetrate generally down across the whole country due to the reasons I mentioned in my earlier post as well.

even more organised systems lose quite a lot of there intensity and precipitation from the north on arrival to the south.

It’s a different story if you take a low-pressure system that comes in off the North Sea across East Anglia the south-east and southern England this can spread all the way across due to it being flat land all the way from East Anglia pretty much down across to the Southwest there are no significant areas of high ground that greatly affect precipitation totals. There are local variance of course even where I live not far away do you have the Mendip Hills which on a local scale can act on its down slopes to the west if precipitation is coming in from the east. 
 

on a wider scale although generally for us here a cold northerly blast can bring snow if a low-pressure comes in off the Atlantic and meets that cold air can create a snow fest.

or alternatively as I alluded to earlier and eastern to west travelling trough or low pressure can deliver good amounts down here

 

 

 

[TSNWK]

Spot the mild magnet

[sheikhy]

Arpege gives a more noteable snowfall for east of england and the home counties as well!!

[MATTWOLVES 3]

1 minute ago, TSNWK said:

Spot the mild magnet

A good deal of cold pooling over scandy though here. I would be more concerned if the cold air was pushed much further East and North.

Let's see if we can get hints over scandy pressure on the 46 towards mid month! It could be around this stage when we get the next meaningful shot.

Thankfully it's very early yet.

[TSNWK]

On 25/11/2021 at 16:26, MATTWOLVES said:

A good deal of cold pooling over scandy though here. I would be more concerned if the cold air was pushed much further East and North.

Let's see if we can get hints over scandy pressure on the 46 towards mid month! It could be around this stage when we get the next meaningful shot.

Thankfully it's very early yet.

Agree. 06z must have put a little less in the northern arm which allowed some height to topple over scandi and we had few days of something colder from the east

Hoping we still have members doing this around 180

[Man With Beard]

Wind latest: Even more models are pushing towards 130, 140 or even 150km/h, so 90mph gusts definitely in scope in the north of England, here's AROME for instance:

 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Ukmo also brings a chance of something colder towards day 6,and we have quite a chunk of vortex residing close to scandy here...

@Dennis must be very happy about that.

[sorepaw1]

2 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Wind latest: Even more models are pushing towards 130, 140 or even 150km/h, so 90mph gusts definitely in scope in the north of England, here's AROME for instance:

 

I'd like to say thanks for your posts on the wind updates 

I'm finding them very useful 

Given my location .

Thank you.

[bluearmy]

Gem has a similar track to gfs 

[Ali1977]

Where’s this WAA going

[TSNWK]

Gfs defo sniffing around on heights to our north east? Although later than 06z by a couple days there is signal there I say.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

This could be positive guys..vortex pulling out of Greenland,perhaps some Heights about to push towards sw Greenland,and with a potential Heights build around scandy.

Are you ready for chase 1000...thats how many it will be come winters end

Positive signs here though,yes a long way off...but that's want we need to see.

Massive difference from the last run...definitely signs of movement from the vortex and those NE Heights. Let's hope tonight's 46 goes thus way also.

Edited November 25, 2021 by MATTWOLVES

[Jeremy Shockey]

ARPEGE 12z for Fri night

Potentially very Wintry for Northern England on Fri night according to ARPEGE 12 z

 

[Man With Beard]

35 minutes ago, sorepaw1 said:

I'd like to say thanks for your posts on the wind updates 

I'm finding them very useful 

Given my location .

Thank you.

You're welcome. I probably should be adding these are likely to be the extremes in exposed places - the general advice of the Met Office of 65-75mph might be closer to the mark for many. Which is quite enough for most!

[Eagle Eye]

I've got a football match at that time, that would be quite literally a magical match

[Ali1977]

10 minutes ago, Jeremy Shockey said:

ARPEGE 12z for Fri night

Potentially very Wintry for Northern England on Fri night according to ARPEGE 12 z

 

This is the arpege totals for the storm, even down south has some totals worthy of a warning

[bluearmy]

3 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

This is the arpege totals for the storm, even down south has some totals worthy of a warning

That’s total snowfall - I imagine the lying snow prediction is less exciting! 

[MildCarlilse]

And when Darren Bett just assured me of 

milder weather next week,I wished 25/11/2010 a happy anniversary.