model discussion Model output discussion - closing in on Winter

[SLEETY]

I know its fl of gfs but the end of the run is where we need to be heading with the Artic high building and look at that frigid air entering Northern Scandi

Hopefully this is the new trend going forward in the days ahead

[weirpig]

5 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

That’s total snowfall - I imagine the lying snow prediction is less exciting! 

Quite DPS are very marginal. Altitude is needed I expect 

[joggs]

1 hour ago, TSNWK said:

Spot the mild magnet

It's flatter over the US for a change lol.

[Tim Bland]

Nice little upgrade from ECM… 

[sheikhy]

Ecm gives 5cms + widely across central and eastern england!!!

[Catacol]

18 hours ago, Tamara said:

Based on yesterdays attempts to provide some balanced grounding about the MJO and the wind-flow budgets on the broader scale - your analysis persists in this stand-alone magic bullet concept that MJO x+y = desired solution.  I am not a prophet, and do not profess to have the ability to second guess the diagnostic, even though its (real) purpose is invaluable and gives some very helpful insight looking ahead as to what *might* happen in terms of *ranges* of probabilistic solutions. That as opposed to fitting to one bias solution.. But I certainly do know that this persistence in trying to fit to bias is  flawed, other than the broken clock analogy where it comes right eventually and appears to vindicate the bias confirmation.

As for the time-lags and 'signals seem to look good for another round of amplification'  - . Quite apart from the extra tropical wind-flow budget not accounted for in favour of taking the MJO in isolation because it is believed to deliver an arctic flavoured  happy pill - it makes it further impossible to start to extrapolate what *might* happen in mid December.

On the other hand if the GSDM is considered in respect of total global wind-flow, and objectivity can resist trying to tie analysis down to a pre-conceived ideal - then it starts to become a worthwhile discussion and probabilistic outcomes can begin to be reasoned.

I’m glad this got edited since this morning - I was about to answer in somewhat irritated fashion, unsure quite what Daniel had done to deserve so harsh a response, but some relevant points can still be made.

Firstly the background signals (section deleted) referred to as a grinding cliche are used by all professionals I know including the Met Office. If we don’t look for the factors that work to affect the pattern we have no hope of mastering them and attempting accurate forecasting. Cliche or not, they are vital tools.

Secondly Ed Berry’s work on the GSDM focusing on global wind flows was ground breaking, but has fallen into comparative disuse because it is not especially useful as a tool. You acknowledge this when referring to the range of possibilities that it highlights, but in practical terms that serves little purpose. Understanding how things connect is not the same as trying to understand what is driving the direction of travel, and it is trying to predict the strength of specific drivers and their likely impact that counts. To sit on the fence and acknowledge the range of possibilities out there is the equivalent of looking at the Premier League in early August, highlighting a range of possible outcomes in terms of an end of season winner but then going no further in trying to plot the season. Is there much point to this?

Thirdly if the balance of probability approach is going to be followed, then at the very least it needs to be approached in the same way as probabilistic forecasting is used by the MetO in their seasonals. Glosea’s 3 month smoothed average approach is extremely vague BUT it does at least state likely bands of above or below temp, pressure, etc and suggests the likely direction of travel via the probability comparison. But I am yet to read any of your GWO based posts go as far as suggesting a probability comparison of potential solutions. Again - is there much point to this?

Finally insisting that the only valid approach is to acknowledge the range of solutions and state that any other approach is compromised by bias effectively stifles debate. If cold hunters can’t argue why they think cold might be on the horizon, and mild hunters can’t argue in reverse then we end up with a stagnant forum. That can’t be good. Everyone on here has the right to bring their personal intentions with them, and argue/hope/analyse from their own perspective. It is this kind of debate that creates momentum via constructive disagreement and I would always argue to keep it. Daniel has every right to put out an MJO based approach if that is the area he wants to focus on, and his approach is no less valid than the one that sits on neutral ground unwilling to commit.

To all on here - be who you wish to be and search for what you wish to search for. That is what makes us human.

[Frostbite1980]

16 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Ecm gives 5cms + widely across central and eastern england!!!

Doesnt ECM assume every snow flake will settle? I think the majority of us should be happy just to see some flakes fall.....at least until we enter the winter period which is still a week away 

[Updated_Weather]

32 minutes ago, Frostbite1980 said:

Doesnt ECM assume every snow flake will settle? I think the majority of us should be happy just to see some flakes fall.....at least until we enter the winter period which is still a week away 

You’re correct.

i believe it counts every bit of wintry precipitation as accumulation ie - sleet, graupel etc

[Anthony Burden]

Evening all,ECM showing encouraging signs from 216 hrs of high pressure building strongly in 

mid Atlantic continuing 240hrs possibly a reload bringing return of more northerly flow.My take

more likely than Scandinavian high as Atlantic still not fired up to any degree.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Regarding predictions...im putting my head on the chopping block by stating ECM was a decent run...that 2nd cold shot looks possible,and I detect the hint of Heights East of Scandy by day 10.

I may be wrong,I realise the only tool I serve to many on here is my crazy sense of humour..I don't mind being wrong...but I just love to have a crack at it...if I'm wrong,so be it...life goes on and there's a hell of a lot worse things in life to be worrying about these days!

Everyone keep up the great work...this forum is just fab,If you're unsure in yourself....dont stress...have a little go yourself....im wrong all the time....and I love it cause sooner or latter im gonna nail it

Edited November 25, 2021 by Mapantz
Moving on

[Staffmoorlands]

5 minutes ago, Anthony Burden said:

Evening all,ECM showing encouraging signs from 216 hrs of high pressure building strongly in 

mid Atlantic continuing 240hrs possibly a reload bringing return of more northerly flow.My take

more likely than Scandinavian high as Atlantic still not fired up to any degree.

ECM is not great tonight all. Reminds me of previous winters as we head in to December after a promising end to November.  Make the most of the snow this Saturday is my advise

[Griff]

On 25/11/2021 at 19:18, MATTWOLVES said:

Regarding predictions...im putting my head on the chopping block by stating ECM was a decent run...that 2nd cold shot looks possible,and I detect the hint of Heights East of Scandy by day 10.

I may be wrong,I realise the only tool I serve to many on here is my crazy sense of humour..I don't mind being wrong...but I just love to have a crack at it...if I'm wrong,so be it...life goes on and there's a hell of a lot worse things in life to be worrying about these days!

Everyone keep up the great work...this forum is just fab,If you're unsure in yourself....dont stress...have a little go yourself....im wrong all the time....and I love it cause sooner or latter im gonna nail it

Gem (day 10 so who knows) 

Plenty of interest to keep me lurking. 

Edited November 25, 2021 by Mapantz
Removed some quoted text

[Dennis]

 

very windy night - low track 

[BARRY]

It's going to be a long winter,but nice to see a 2 day chart

 

[LetItSnow!]

I’m personally not too convinced of a return to much in the way of Atlantic dominated weather just yet. This weekend had its cold weather pushed back, erased, then upgraded. I think northerlies are always a pain to forecast. Definitely not sold on a return to too much in the way of mild weather unless we get to the end of the month and the pattern is still strong. And even if winds back westerly there’s nothing to say that it would last long. Indeed, the first half to December in the coldest winters usually is a period of the puzzle pieces being put together, so no downbeat feelings from me tonight. I wouldn’t be bold enough to say “expect cold upgrades” but definitely don’t discount them either. 

[iceman1991]

10 minutes ago, LetItSnow! said:

I’m personally not too convinced of a return to much in the way of Atlantic dominated weather just yet. This weekend had its cold weather pushed back, erased, then upgraded. I think northerlies are always a pain to forecast. Definitely not sold on a return to too much in the way of mild weather unless we get to the end of the month and the pattern is still strong. And even if winds back westerly there’s nothing to say that it would last long. Indeed, the first half to December in the coldest winters usually is a period of the puzzle pieces being put together, so no downbeat feelings from me tonight. I wouldn’t be bold enough to say “expect cold upgrades” but definitely don’t discount them either. 

Lots of snow to come 

[Dennis]

gfs12 accu snow

[Man With Beard]

Couple more wind forecasts, and they are not good. The ECM has now upped gusts to 90mph on the North Yorkshire coast, pretty concerning from one of main go-to models, and now at just T24.

The EURO4 is also up from this morning and hits the 100mph mark around Berwick upon Tweed 

The NMM gets 90mph quite close to Edinburgh

This may well become a red warning tomorrow. Do not travel on the NE coast tomorrow night, and beware problems Saturday morning.

 

[Vee89]

3 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Couple more wind forecasts, and they are not good. The ECM has now upped gusts to 90mph on the North Yorkshire coast, pretty concerning from one of main go-to models, and now at just T24.

The EURO4 is also up from this morning and hits the 100mph mark around Berwick upon Tweed 

The NMM gets 90mph quite close to Edinburgh

This may well become a red warning tomorrow. Do not travel on the NE coast tomorrow night, and beware problems Saturday morning.

 

Appreciate this, I’m right on the north east coast near Sunderland, and not very good at reading the models as a newbie, so wasn’t sure how bad it may get here! 

[Man With Beard]

3 minutes ago, Vee89 said:

Appreciate this, I’m right on the north east coast near Sunderland, and not very good at reading the models as a newbie, so wasn’t sure how bad it may get here! 

Best case scenario for Sunderland probably 65mph, worst case 95mph!

Not sure this generation has seen such a storm on the east coast.

[seabreeze86]

1 minute ago, Man With Beard said:

Best case scenario for Sunderland probably 65mph, worst case 95mph!

Not sure this generation has seen such a storm on the east coast.

Winds look awful down the east coast the only saving grace is the low tides as I think coastal flooding Would of been a major problem if they weren’t so low

[mulzy]

The ECM sub~seasonal that’s takes us through December suggests a +NAO signal through most if not all of the period.  Looks like a strong TPV setting up.  Disappointing to be honest.

Edited November 25, 2021 by mulzy

[edinburgh_1992]

ECMWF has downgraded the wind for Edinburgh tomorrow, gusts peaking at around 40mph. I trust the European model more than GFS, so probably nothing to worry about tomorrow. 40mph is standard for a storm. 

[Griff]

6 minutes ago, mulzy said:

The ECM sub~seasonal that’s takes us through December suggests a +NAO signal through most if not all of the period.  Looks like a strong TPV setting up.  Disappointing to be honest.

Or was it strong +nao from a Scandi? 

 

[knocker]

The medium term anomalies continue to indicate the pattern change with one tpv lobe setting up over northern Canada whilst the other and ext trough moves towards NE Europe. In between the subtropic  high slowly loses amplification albeit the upper flow still north of west. Temps returning to a tad above average but likely quite a marked N/S variation