Model Output Discussion - Winter arrives

[mulzy]

I know the mean can hide a multitude of sins but the mean eps days 6-9 look very good.

[Mark Smithy]

Looked first at the 12z GFS, as you do, and thought 'bugger, game's up.'

Then looked at UKMO, ECMWF and GEM and well, blimey o'reilly, there are some mouth-watering synoptics emerging with Scandinavian High and big jet amplification leading to a bitter easterly knocking on our door. 

The pick, surely, has to be our very own UKMO if only because this is T144?

GFS v Europe. Who wins?

[tight isobar]

As again northerly # 2 gainful in momentum, ! As it’s looked a faux cold infer  ( in part) but with gain is now as expected is getting the tap. And wouldn’t bet against prolongment now either as we get to grips- to a degree with spading our pressure cell evolution!! 12z notching it up    Later this week getting interesting!

Edited November 29, 2021 by tight isobar

[sheikhy]

11 minutes ago, mulzy said:

I know the mean can hide a multitude of sins but the mean eps days 6-9 look very good.

When you say it looks good that means it looks darn good!!exciting moments hopefully!

[danthetan]

11 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

-10c showing by 10th Dec in Wales , with temps staying well below freezing in the day time 

 

 

Midday temps are very cold 

One of the very few times the SW portion of the uk get plastered due to the ebb and flow of cold air undercutting and moisture colliding. 

[swfc]

On 29/11/2021 at 19:33, sheikhy said:

When you say it looks good that means it looks darn good!!exciting moments hopefully!

Honestly folks I'd really wait for at least 72 hrs min before jumping in with both feet. Ec is great going forward but captain PV is still waiting in the background.

[northwestsnow]

Well campers,if you see this in the morning .....

 

You know its game ON ...

Onto ec46....

 

 

[PiscesStar]

7 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

As again northerly # 2 gainful in momentum, ! As it’s looked a faux cold infer  ( in part) but with gain is now as expected is getting the tap. And wouldn’t bet against prolongment now either as we get to grips- to a degree with spading our pressure cell evolution!! 12z notching it up    Later this week getting interesting!

Will the south East get a look in though this time round??  

[sheikhy]

Just now, swfc said:

Honestly folks I'd really wait for at least 72 hrs min before jumping in with both feet. Ec is great going forward but captain PV is still waiting in the background.

Totally agree but hard not to get exicted with what the ecm has shown this evening!hope it goes on to be like that in reality!

[sheikhy]

Just now, northwestsnow said:

Well campers,if you see this in the morning .....

 

You know its game ON ...

Onto ec46....

 

 

Now on to the ec46 to show a raging vortex instead!!!

[northwestsnow]

Just now, sheikhy said:

Totally agree but hard not to get exicted with what the ecm has shown this evening!hope it goes on to be like that in reality!

No , I want ec to be a mild outlier

[Mike Poole]

2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Well campers,if you see this in the morning .....

 

You know its game ON ...

Onto ec46....

 

 

Some of us said that yesterday, though not with so much pizazz!

[minus10]

45 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Bit of a snow dream this ECM - southerly tracking jet with channel lows ... don't be fussy coldies, this is good stuff for the first week of December!

It certainly is MWB. Throughout the entire ecm 12z run a good part of the northern hemis stays cold or very cold. Also that is quite some hp at end of run all the way from central Russia/China (i think) to almost Greenland...great start to official winter. Lets hope this continues...

[sheikhy]

2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

No , I want ec to be a mild outlier

Imagine if thats the case!!!!i just cant believe there could be more snow again from wednesday onwards!!!

[SLEETY]

On 29/11/2021 at 09:00, Snowman. said:

Just like that, Scandi heights dream shattered. Once again proving that unless it is literally at your doorstep and every model supports it, it has the chance to vanish from sight. 
 

ECM is okay needs a lite nudge SW of those disrupting troughs to upgrade it in my mind. 
 

Still plenty of time for changes. 

Or dont get hung up on every gfs runs.Its good at picking up trends but useless in the finer detail,especially with modelling Blocking highs from the East.Amount of times it drops the idea then reverts back after the other models pick up the chance of an Easterly.

 

Looks like its failed again.I doubt the ukmo/ECM are wrong at 120 hours and gfs correct

Edited November 29, 2021 by SLEETY

[bluearmy]

19 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

Absolutely. The gfs first spotted this and was like a dog with a bone about it. Quite a few were too quick to disregard the gfs just because ecm and mogreps didn't agree. However, the ukmo op runs were leaning towards the gfs ops over the last couple of days. Ukmo has now jumped into bed with the original gfs prognosis along with the gem and now ecm. Kudos to the gfs. Two decades of model watching has taught me one thing. Although very erratic at times, the gfs has also had a habit of picking out these amplification events and correctly stuck to it. Every dog has its day as they say and the gfs has had more of these than what it has ever been given credit for. Yes, tonight's op has taken a step back somewhat but it isn't a full on backtrack. I will say one thing here. The ecm op has been playing catch up big style these past few days. 

The 12z ecm is miles away from what the gfs was showing with its upper scandi ridges …….

the gfs picked up the initial amplification to our west first but it then made a pigs ear of what follows. Of course the modelling may evolve further but at this time, it’s only the initial amplification. kudos to it for that. 

[swfc]

On 29/11/2021 at 19:40, Mike Poole said:

Some of us said that yesterday, though not with so much pizazz!

He's been wedged to many times Mike

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

 

Ukmo t120

 

 

ECM t120

 

BFTP

Edited November 29, 2021 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[Allseasons-Si]

On 29/11/2021 at 19:38, northwestsnow said:

Well campers,if you see this in the morning .....

 

You know its game ON ...

Onto ec46....

 

 

PROZAC and PRAM'S at the ready then

[Singularity]

For the time being, the expansion of the Azores High northward driven by the La Niña base state can be put to good use, keeping the polar jet from flattening out, helping to disrupt and slide the Atlantic troughs.

This is often seen late Nov through first third of so of Dec, before a strengthening polar vortex pushes hard enough the other way that we end up with a strong westerly flow instead.

BUT not all La Niña winters evolve that way. In some, interaction with Scandi/Ural highs while the pattern is more amplified leads to vertical wave activity flux into the stratosphere that weakens the polar vortex. Even without a SSW, that can be enough to keep the Azores High expanding northward through into the new year.

Generally, more east-biased La Niña events (cold SST anomalies focused in East Pacific) are the most likely to follow that route, as they permit more eastward MJO travel beyond Indonesia. We currently have such a La Nina, albeit not the most strongly defined of cases. Very interesting situation.

[sheikhy]

Ecm mean!!!bloody brilliant!!!

[Ali1977]

What time is the EC46 released? 

[Winter-Chaser]

Just now, sheikhy said:

Ecm mean!!!bloody brilliant!!!

Can we see it please?

 

[SqueakheartLW]

On 29/11/2021 at 19:48, sheikhy said:

Ecm mean!!!bloody brilliant!!!

ECM looks good but hope it doesn't turn into a 2012 ECM easterly moment

[KTtom]

Just need Northwestsnow's 'Exeter' on board now then