Model Output Discussion - Winter arrives

[Mike Poole]

Just now, Kasim Awan said:

I'm not that clued up on the mjo so would be good if someone could clarify which model is better at mjo.

I think they are all pretty rubbish!  MJO evolution as modelled on these RMM charts has always seemed extremely unreliable.  However, a strong signal is less likely to be wrong than a weak one, so I’m factoring in some effect from a MJO phase 7-8 in current thinking.  

[Allseasons-Si]

On 11/12/2021 at 00:10, Kasim Awan said:

I'm not that clued up on the mjo so would be good if someone could clarify which model is better at mjo for the purpose of @Allseasons-si's post.

 

On 11/12/2021 at 00:13, Mike Poole said:

I think they are all pretty rubbish!  MJO evolution as modelled on these RMM charts has always seemed extremely unreliable.  However, a strong signal is less likely to be wrong than a weak one, so I’m factoring in some effect from a MJO phase 7-8 in current thinking.  

I am not that clued up on the MJO malarky my self but i have read over the years on here with the likes of @Nick F and some others that have mentioned this before that the MJO needs to be as amplified as possible(away from the COD(circle of death) to promote more northern blocking through phases 7/8/1

6 UK.7 NW UK,8 north UK and 1 NE UK,...i think.

as in terms of which model is the best whether it be the gefs or the ECM,...well i don't know this.

[Daniel*]

EPS already appears quite bullish of temps going to colder side of average next weekend, and that locking in, and potentially intensifying to real McCoy post Xmas not majority of solutions at stage but bet there are surely some right cripplers. 

[feb1991blizzard]

This is gonna be a stonker.

[tight isobar]

Another run = Another push of heights into the semi- pole.. and a tangled pv to boot- the Canadian rolling now too.. let’s see the evo.

[Lukesluckybunch]

3 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

This is gonna be a stonker.

yes already looking good!watch that brutal cold air to the northeast,could come towards us.

[Kasim Awan]

Big changes on gfs 00z

[Lukesluckybunch]

4 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

Big changes on gfs 00z

for the better?

[Kasim Awan]

2 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

for the better?

Stronger around Greenland.

[Lukesluckybunch]

Just now, Kasim Awan said:

Stronger around Greenland.

looks as though it will have a proper go at 240!

[Kasim Awan]

5 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

looks as though it will have a proper go at 240!

Carbon copy of gem 12z.

[Battleground Snow]

Busy 5am crew this morning,

Everything getting brought forward in timescales, I think models have been underestimating both mjo amplitude and speed through the Pacific and are now playing catch up.

Just need a bit more of a push north still at 276

[tight isobar]

A defined upgrade this morning in both terms of heights - and ultimately the draw /intakes of sub continental airflow slowly edging closer to our shores- as viewed via the 850 snaps.! So a little more oomph into the higher latts as we gain... And indeed the run up to Xmas- and the period itself getting ever more interesting

[tight isobar]

A snapshot of the Canadian @144- and its preety much heading the same way - 

Edited December 11, 2021 by tight isobar

[Kasim Awan]

10 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

A snapshot of the Canadian @144- and its preety much heading the same way - 

The lack of jet activity south of Greenland is extremely good.

[Kasim Awan]

GEM on board!

[Lukesluckybunch]

the mean not quiet as good as last nights 18z at 192,everything slightly further east.but very fine margins really.still looking good!

[Lukesluckybunch]

Just now, tight isobar said:

The gfs London ones- you’d have to say starting to look quite impressive now going forwards.. the climb down continues @00z suite.

thats very obvious a nice look,we just hope it stays at this semi reliable time frame,otherwise we start the chasing again!haha

[offerman]

I think the charts point toward a chilly Christmas. Either sunny crisp cold with frosty start, or cloudy chilly . I don’t think we will have any snow……yet, but come later in to the period new year quite possibly. 
 

i have seen a number of times over the years, benign Christmas sometimes mild murky, but I’d like sometimes flicks a switch New Year’s Eve , Day off just after in to the new year and cold and snow arrives.  Aimho 

[nick sussex]

It’s been a case of chasing the high for the last few days .

More solid support now for it heading further north .

This mornings GFS attempts two rounds 

It doesn’t  quite manage the relevant jet cut back sw to draw the coldest air into the UK but it will still turn colder .

So the jet cut back is now key both for the much colder uppers and drawing more instability into the flow .

 

[Ali1977]

Great start to the day, GEFS included. This perb is chilly!! 

[tight isobar]

The ec also heading down the same avenue this morning. Are we now beginning to get traction and gain on clearance for the high going northwards .. I’d say so.. That’s exactly the sign most are looking for. So a definite trend now evolving.

[PiscesStar]

Morning Guys!! Seems to be trending well... This run gets the cold to the UK in a manner of speaking... The high sticking to our shores but would still like further migration of the high northwards  which will hopefully continue in subsequent runs, fingers crossed  

[LetItSnow!]

10 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Great start to the day, GEFS included. This perb is chilly!! 

The words I just automatically uttered are deff not family friendy...  will refrain excitement until the time is closer but a more interesting look to the start of winter than many a year.

[Ali1977]

ECM seems to be heading in the same direction, need the ball on PV to the left of the sliver of heights to hold back to allow the heights to make it as far North as possible.

 

Looking good, better than the 18z as heights only made it half way up Greenland on that run.This is also further west, looks like this could deliver the cold from the north by day 10

Edited December 11, 2021 by Ali1977